HTF Markup 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 - XAU, DXY, GBP, JPY, AUD, NAS, BTCThis is a Weekly post for several pairs showing HTF Markup only using Smart Money Concept (SMC) on Weekly, Daily and 4H Time Frames.
Feedback will be highly appreciated.
U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY
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Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar OANDA:XAUUSD
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British Pound / U.S. Dollar – FX:GBPUSD
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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen FOREXCOM:USDJPY
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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar FOREXCOM:AUDUSD
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US Nas 100 OANDA:NAS100USD
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Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD
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F-XAU
GOLD - Price can make upward impulse from support line to $2035Hi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price bounced from resistance level, which coincided with resistance area, and fell to $2020 support level.
Also, XAU started to trades in flat, where it even made fake breakout of $2020 level, and then made upward impulse.
After upward impulse, Gold exited from flat and started to trades in wedge, in which price bounced down from resistance line.
Price declined to support line, but then it at once bounced and rose to resistance line, breaking support level.
But a not long time ago Gold declined below this level again and now it trades near it inside support area.
Possibly, XAU can bounce from support line and make upward impulse to $2035, thereby exiting from wedge.
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HelenP. I Gold can break trend line and then continue to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see how the price not long time ago made an impulse downward from the resistance zone, which coincided with the resistance level to the support level. After this, the price tried to rise, but failed and declined even below the 2020 support level, which coincided with the support zone, but soon XAU turned around and made a strong impulse up to the trend line, breaking the 2050 resistance level again. Next, the price bounced from this line and in a short time declined to 2000 points, thereby breaking 2050 and 2020 levels one more time. After this movement, Gold turned around and rose higher than the support level, breaking the 2020 level again and some time traded near this level. But when XAU made a fake breakout of the trend line it made impulse down to the support zone, and even fell lower, but recently price rose back and now trades close to the support level. I expect that Gold will make a correction to the support level and then rise to the trend line. After this movement, XAU can try to break this line, after which the price will continue to move up. Therefore I set my target at the 2040 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
XAU/USD 25 Jan 2024 Intraday Analysis-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
-> Has reached EQ.
Following swing BOS price very aggressively pushed to the upside.
Currently price has printed a bearish iBOS where we are now in the pullback phase.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH which is the first sign (but not confirmation) that internal pullback has initiated. Internal EQ is marked in green.
Sub-structure to internal structure is marked in red where price has printed a bearish iiBOS in line with the internal structure as it is anticipated that price will target M15 internal low as per analysis since Monday this week.
XAU/USD 25 Jan 2024 Intraday Analysis-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal Bearish.
-> Has reached EQ.
After the swing BOS price aggressively moved to the upside.
Price printed double bullish iBOS to confirm swing pullback phase is complete.
Currently internal structure remains bearish following second bearish iBOS. Price pulled back to premium 50% EQ and is trading between and internal range.
Expectation remains as yesterday, for price to continue to trade bearish to target weak internal low.
Bears piled into gold ~2035, seeking move to 2000Bearish engulfing day saw it closed beneath $2020 - a level it has flirted with but mostly respected as S/R on a daily close basis. This level was also tested on the 1-hour chart - which means support became resistance.
A triple top formed on the 1-hour chart, and bears entered ~2035 to help it break below 2020, before volumes diminished. (Bears are short at the highs and may not want it to break back above the 2020 area - where a swing high formed on the 1-hour).
Daily low found support at the prior HVN (high volume node), so a bounce may be due.
We're ideally looking for a retracement towards / up to $2020 ahead of its next leg lower toward 2000 - 2005.
XAU/USD 24 Jan 2024 Intraday Analysis-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal Bearish.
-> Has reached EQ.
After the swing BOS price aggressively moved to the upside.
Price printed double bullish iBOS to confirm swing pullback phase is complete.
Currently internal structure remains bearish following second bearish iBOS. Price pulled back to premium 50% EQ and is trading between and internal range.
Expectation remains as yesterday, for price to continue to trade bearish to target weak internal low.
Caution at H4 demand price has already reacted from there.
XAU BULLISH breakdownUsing chart patterns in analysis, its a clear bullish movementt/rally up till the 2040's and could create an uptrust after distribution clearing to the 2052-2055 range before a retracement is expected and then we hedge bullish again with the market.
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GOLD - Price can decline to support level in falling channelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
When price bounced from $2005 level, it declined to $1980, but then XAU entered to wedge and started to rise.
Gold in a short time broke $2005 level, and rose to resistance line of wedge, after which price made correction.
Next, Gold made upward impulse to resistance line, thereby breaking $2060 level, but then it turned around and entered to falling channel.
Also, price exited from wedge and soon XAU broke $2060 level in falling channel again, and then decline to support level.
After this, Gold bounced from support level and started to move up to resistance line, but still hasn't reached this line.
I think that Gold can little rise and then continue to decline to $2005 support level.
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XAu/USD 23 Jan 2024 Intraday Analysis-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
-> Has reached EQ.
Following swing BOS price very aggressively pushed to the upside.
Currently price has printed a bearish iBOS where we are now in the pullback phase.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH which is the first sign (but not confirmation) that internal pullback has initiated. Internal EQ is marked in green.
Sub-structure to internal structure is marked in red.
Internal structure traded past 50% EQ where we saw a reaction at premium. Sub-internal structure is now bullish.
Price could potentially continue bullish, react at H4 supply level to continue bearish.
As per yesterday's analysis, price anticipated to target weak internal low.
XAU/USD 23 Jan 2024 Intraday Analysis -> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal Bearish.
-> Has reached EQ.
After the swing BOS price aggressively moved to the upside.
Price printed double bullish iBOS to confirm swing pullback phase is complete.
Currently internal structure remains bearish following second bearish iBOS. Price pulled back to premium 50% EQ.
Expectation remains as yesterday, for price to continue to trade bearish to target weak internal low.
Caution at H4 demand price has already reacted from there.
Golden Opportunities: Navigating the Ups and Downs of the GoldIntroduction:
Hey there! Have you been keeping an eye on the gold market lately? It's been a rollercoaster ride, and there's a lot to unpack. Whether you're a seasoned gold bug or just dabbling in precious metals, understanding the recent fluctuations in gold prices is crucial. Let's dive into what's been happening with our shiny friend, gold, and explore some strategies to potentially benefit from the current market scenario.
Understanding the Current Gold Market Dynamics:
The Fed's Influence:
The Federal Reserve is like the DJ at the gold market's party. When they crank up interest rates, gold doesn't dance as much. Why? Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Recently, the market's been buzzing with the Fed's hawkish stance, reducing expectations of an early rate cut in March 2024. This shift has put some pressure on gold prices.
Economic Data – The Mood Setter:
Strong U.S. economic data, including retail sales and labor market figures, have shown that the economy is still grooving strong. This resilience suggests that the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer to manage growth and inflation. For gold, this means less glitter as investors turn to yield-bearing assets.
Geopolitical Tensions – The Wild Card:
Now, let's not forget the global stage. The escalating military conflict in the Middle East has been like a sudden change in the playlist, causing some investors to cling to gold as a safe-haven asset. This demand provides a floor to gold prices, preventing them from free-falling.
Conclusion:
The gold market is dynamic, influenced by a mix of economic policies, global events, and market sentiment. As investors and traders, staying informed and adaptable is key. Whether you're looking to diversify, buy on the dip, or just understand the market better, there's always an opportunity to shine in the gold market. Keep your eyes peeled, and who knows, you might just find your golden opportunity!
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Why I think gold is likely to continue to sell (TEMPORARILY)The problem is that gold is a bullish market overall so I understand why you may think it doesn't make sense to continue to sell but let's ask the simple question - if it is so bullish, why isn't it buying?
The answer I have come up with which I will be explaining in much more detail further in this post is simple - this market in particular doesn't have enough liquidity to make its move back bullish
I think gold can benefit from pushing lower and I want to explain why.
Firstly, many traders will want to sell gold at a high point and gold is extremely high right now in the grand scheme of things (having just created an all time high). It makes sense that sellers would be interested. We also know that many traders like using trendlines to fuel their trade. Interestingly enough there is an absolutely beautiful bearish trendline present right now
Now, that being said I consider my own analysis to be a bit different because I personally prefer to 1. keep things simple and 2. use as much data as I can in the most simplest of ways
That beings said the second thing I want to discuss why I think gold can benefit from going lower is this question
Who is the real target of the gold market? Buyers or sellers? If the gold market is bullish then buyers are the target. So long as gold buys the sellers would be destroyed automatically
The real problem begins when we ask - how will the buyers be destroyed in a bull market? Because let's face it - they have to be destroyed. This explains the bear move
My analysis follows 3 simple questions and they are as follows
1. Who is interested in the market (at this time)
2. Where are their stop losses (or where would they be to frustrated to keep their trade open
3. Have they been stopped out or forced to close their trade
Only once I have a definitive answer to these 3 questions then can I find an entry
So let us attempt to answer these 3 questions in what I think is a dynamic approach
In orange these are the areas (on the m15 timeframe) I think sellers may be interested but as we just discussed I don't think the sellers are the target for the market - these are just areas the market may be likely to go back up to later on
Changing to the 1 hour timeframe I can see a few areas where I believe buyers would have been interested and stopped out
And as you can see the buyers are actively being induced to buy presently again
If there are being induced to buy and we know that they have stops below this green level - shouldn't it make sense that gold will sell down below this level?
This is what makes sense to me right now - I will be setting an alert below the green zone to see how it reacts if and when it gets there
I won't be prioritizing buys nor sells at this time but I am definitely interested in it selling to below this level before buys become available to me again
What do you think?
Comment below
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XAU/USD 22 Jan 2024 Daily Analysis-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish
-> Has reached EQ.
Price pulled back following bearish iBOS and is reacting to 50% EQ of the internal structure marked in green and daily demand zone.
Price is currently trading within internal high and fractal low.
Expectation: Price to target weak internal low. Current demand zone to be respected.
In the event price continues to trade bullish the likely scenario is for price to trade up to strong internal high before continuing bearish internal order flow.
XAU/USD 22-26 Jan 2024 Weekly Analysis-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
-> Did not reach EQ.
Price has not yet reached 50% EQ and price is still in pullback phase in the premium swing/internal, therefore, I would be looking to short.
Price has rejected the Weekly weak Swing High but respected the weekly strong internal high.
Price wicked in excess of Weekly Swing high but failed to close above. This presumably was to sweep liquidity above the strong internal high.
Bullish pullback following bearish iBOS now most likely complete and will target weak internal low.
Bearish CHoCH will be the first indication that sweep of liquidity of internal high is confirmed bearish swing pullback has initiated.
As mentioned last week, request to LTF's would be to shift bearish which price did.
Anticipate structure to indicate end of pullback phase.
HTF Markup 22-26 Jan 2024 W4 - XAU, DXY, GBP, JPY, AUD, NAS, BTCThis is a Weekly post for several pairs showing HTF Markup only using Smart Money Concept (SMC) on Weekly, Daily and 4H Time Frames.
Feedback will be highly appreciated.
TVC:DXY
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OANDA:XAUUSD
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FX:GBPUSD
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FOREXCOM:USDJPY
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FOREXCOM:AUDUSD
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OANDA:NAS100USD
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COINBASE:BTCUSD
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XAU short opportunityxau is bearish in HTF and rejected from a seller POI .and building liquidity below the OB .if it wants to fall from the current point then it should first clear the current liquidity and again retest the lower 15M OB . And in case if it reaches to the top OB prefer high rejection from it.and go for short. if it shows bullish momentum then the setup is invalid.
#AQURISHA