⚡️ Gold on the threshold of a bear market - 2022-2025 forecast 📣 Hello, I think that gold will probably not update its ATH 2075$ and from the end of 2022 - the beginning of 2023 a full-fledged bear market will begin.
❌ The cancellation of this trading idea will be the closing of the month above $1984, followed by a retest and a confident fixing of the price above the mirror level.
Good luck with your own thoughtful decisions, bye!
F-XAU
5000$ GOLD - HAVE TIME TO BUY IT!📣 Hello everyone!
Here is my updated long-term trading idea for gold, time frame 1 month.
At the maximum in 2025, I expect to see a final decline to the level of 1533$ in wave-E of the expanding triangle ABCDE at the minute wave level, after which a reversal and a long upward trend to the price zone of 5335 - 7491$ per ounce of gold.
I'm thinking of buying gold at about 1500$ per ounce, this will be the last opportunity to buy so cheap!
At the peak of the cycle by 2035, gold will cost about 10 000$ per ounce and have a market capitalization of more than $60 trillion.
❌ Invalidation level - 1046$
⚠️ As always, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit ✊
Goodbye!
The Final Trap for GOLD?What is up folks so I have an analysis I wish to discuss before the new trading day begins - My reason for wanting to drop it now is because I am seeing something that may be concerning and I wish to cover it now
Everything is color coding so I will explain - Let us begin
So if we begin with the monthly timeframe we know that at the end of the day gold is still very much bullish and we cannot count the current monthly candle as it has not closed as of yet - anything can happen between now and the end of the month and by extension the end of the year
With that being said we know that the dealer would be more interested in destroying buyers because to destroy sellers all the dealer needs to do is have the market buy and any one who is selling would be taken out sooner or later
The question is if the market continues to buy without stopping out buyers wouldn't that give anyone who is right about the direction (buying) be given a really good opportunity to buy? Do you think the dealer want's to give people a good opportunity to buy? Sounds kinda dumb right?
So here I have on the m15 time frame a few things I wish to cover
Firstly over to the left (blue tag) we have the last area of the late buyers who would have bought the last big spike up - these are traders who FOMO'd. These traders couldn't stand to see the market leave without them and it is very likely a lot of traders entered the market right here
Over to the right from there we have (red tag) stop losses, now the stop losses run a few areas in particular but for now we will deal with just the stop losses of the last late buyers (blue tag). Obviously stops could be even lower than this but if it goes any lower I feel as though sells may make more sense at that point - The reason for that is if the dealer goes too low he would then give buyers an even better opportunity to buy and like we agreed - he doesn't want that.
Up and to the right we have (orange tag) the buyers who bought off of the previous consolidation (light blue zone) being take out and becoming the new liquidity with the last spike down and going into the new consolidation range (orange box) My question is why would the dealer break one consolidation only to quickly resume a next one (1 day apart) seems kinda odd don't you think?
Well it does to me and upon looking at the new consolidation (orange box) closer I realized something - within the new consolidation we have even more buyers being induced (light blue tags) and right below those inductions we have the stop losses that I would have discussed earlier (red tags)
In green we have what I think could be the possible move because by doing this - the dealer destroys all the stop losses of very likely every buyer within this major trap here in one go AND now induces the seller AGAIN, just for that added cherry on top
I'd become interested in that green move if 1. obviously it plays out lol and 2. if it shows me that it is indeed going back into bullish momentum very sharply
The last tag (purple tag) is where I have set a price alert at 2014.28 and you'd notice I have set the alert a little higher that where I think it is going to go but still lower than the consolidation - this is to protect me from being falsely interested but also not to miss a potential set up
Downvote\don't boost if you didn't take the time to read this entire post and didn't even try to understand
OR
Upvote\boost if you did take the time to read this entire post and did try to understand
If you've made it this far - leave a Merry Christmas in the comments for me.. Let me see how many traders actually appreciate an in-depth analysis
P.s if you disagree with me, I am always willing to submit if you have your analysis to counter but don't disagree and not be able to explain in the same amount of detail as to why
By no means am I saying that I will be absolutely right about this but at least I am taking the time to explain what is going on in my brain
Godspeed
XAUUSD D1 - Long SignalIn accordance with the aforementioned analysis of the dollar index, we are poised for an impending descent, targeting the elusive $2000 per ounce mark—a significant psychological threshold that has remained elusive for substantial trading conviction thus far. Our objective is to bridge the gap and reach the lofty heights of the $2150 per ounce level observed on December 4th.
Nevertheless, it is imperative that we exercise prudence as we navigate through the holiday season. The voluminous wick that materialised on the 4th of December could resurface over the next couple of weeks, warranting a cautious approach in our trading endeavours.
XAUUSD 4h4H - On Wednesday, after updating the local minimum, the price aggressively changed the context to a long one in the news. After that, Thursday and Wednesday passed in a correctional movement. The context is still long at the moment, and we are currently in an imbalance. Compression in the form of equal maxima often leads to aggressive reversals.
XAUUSD 1dHello, everyone! Weekly review of the gold-dollar pair from higher timeframe to lower:
1D - Daily timeframe, we are in a short context after updating the historical maximum. After that, we confirmed the short context. At the moment, we have an interesting situation as there is a raid against a raid in still a short context. In such moments, I prefer to gather more information before making a decision.
GOLD Short scalpI am scalping short on GOLD. It is in huge resistance area, price is actually stuck, on lower timeframe i see a clear pattern of accumulation, squeeze and now it should go down. As a confluece on M15 tf i can see a nice bearish divergence, accumulation on asian session, and London should make it drop. Attention to lot size, manage your risk.
Holding my Gold BUYSAs you can see here - my buy position is still open and in profit, the red dashed line represents where my stop loss is in profit and as I am typing this the trade is floating at just under 1:3RRR
On the 1 minute time frame you will realize that a big chunk of sellers may again be induced to enter sells seeing as gold is at a "high" point LOL - I can't see why you'd want to sell after all that bull momentum but say what
Let's see what happens
Lovely GOLD Buy - GOLD SummarizedGood Morning folks - I quickly just wish to discuss what I think I am seeing on gold on the 1 minute timeframe
So we know that in the last day or so we had a really aggressive run up (bull move) on gold
This means that there will be buyers getting in rather late in hopes that they can still catch the move
Highlighted in blue we have what appears (to me) to be a break and retest situation which in and of itself is a buyer induction
AND
Highlighted in purple we have multiple areas in which buyers would have been induced to buy at what would look like "a support" (purple zone)
Below this purple zone is a gigantic pink zone where I believe a lot of stop losses would be
In order for gold to continue to buy I believe the dealer would need to destroy these buyers first
1. To make sure they don't win alongside him
AND
2. To grab that extra liquidity needed to be driven even further up
What do you think ?
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OR
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See you in a few for an update
s3.tradingview.com
Update - Personally I'd like if the move is quick and sharp like this (purple line) in order for me to begin trusting buys again
I am seeing traders right in these very minds who are buying at this point which suggests to me that my analysis that I did earlier (www.tradingview.com has some merit and value
I am continuously asking why would the dealer give me such a good opportunity to buy here now after having such a big run up (bull move) yesterday - It doesn't make sense to me
I believe the market is consolidating here above this "support" for a reason - it's a trap
What do you think?
s3.tradingview.com
There are red folder news events in 7 minutes - So far so good with the last part of my analysis
The dealer is actively targeting that purple zone - Let's watch and see what happens
Who has popcorn 👀
s3.tradingview.com
Possibility of another whipsaw present as the dealer is actively inducing both buyers and sellers on the 1 minute timeframe
Sellers being induced off the high and buyers being induced off the purple zone.
EVEN THOUGH price hasn't reached the purple zone yet - we know traders battle with FOMO everyday
I am sure some of you reading this are already in buy position lol
s3.tradingview.com
Reminder of my analysis
s3.tradingview.com
Giving the buy a chance here
s3.tradingview.com
Probably going to be my last trade for the week - if I lose I would have lost 2 in a row and that is enough for me
Stop loss to break even (red dashed line) for safety
God speed to all sellers who thought it was sells - and all buyers who bought early
Analysis played out pretty much perfectly (www.tradingview.com
Will check in for an update in a few - leaving it to run
Maybe it comes back and stops me out or maybe it just goes further, who knows?
s3.tradingview.com
XAUUSD H8 - Long SignalWe were trading south of that $2000/oz price during recent trade, pulling as low as $1975/oz. Again, upside moves witnessed follow FED outlook, a lot of the pairs we follow and trade revolve around the USD and thus a soft USD means ***USD climb higher.
Still focussed on that $2000/oz support price, the D1 trend is still valid and pointing to the upside, hopefully a healthy correction from 1975 to 2040 sits us in that 2000 region for potential longs.
GOLD NEUTRAL TO SHORT OUTLOOKGold prices have been subject to significant fluctuations recently, primarily influenced by factors surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions and broader economic indicators. Understanding the key drivers behind gold's movements can be crucial.
The Federal Reserve, during its final meeting for 2023, is anticipated to maintain current interest rates. However, the market is particularly attentive to the Fed's 2024 guidance, especially Chairman Jerome Powell's comments. Any indications of a potentially hawkish stance or insights into future interest rate trajectories are poised to impact gold prices negatively, given the inverse relationship between gold and rising interest rates.
Inflation concerns have also been instrumental in shaping market sentiments. Recent reports unveiled unexpected rises in headline inflation, attributed to surging rental costs and increased prices for used cars and trucks. This persistent inflation, surpassing the Fed's 2% target, has sparked speculation regarding the timing of future rate changes.
Market expectations have been volatile, reflecting shifting probabilities of rate cuts. Current forecasts show a reduced likelihood of a rate cut in Q1 2024, highlighting the market's uncertainty and its sensitivity to economic indicators and central bank policies.
The impact on gold prices has been notable. Gold experienced substantial volatility this month, reaching record highs of over $2,100 per ounce before witnessing significant retracement. The precious metal even fell below the coveted $2,000 mark as the dollar regained strength ahead of the Fed meeting.
Traders are advised to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's statement post-meeting, economic projections, and Jerome Powell's press conference for insights into future policy decisions. Given the unpredictability inherent in financial markets, gold prices may continue experiencing fluctuations based on the perceived stance of the Fed on interest rates and inflation.
From a technical viewpoint, the indicators are currently displaying a neutral to bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is offering neutral signals, while the trend remains bearish. Potential support levels could be identified at 1950.01 and 1984.47, whereas a breach beyond these levels might drive the price toward resistance levels at 2011.36.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
The GOLD move today Summarized | Lost Trade by the way I think sells have now become dangerous as that low has been both tapped and rejected - buys aren't ready just yet but sells have become a hazard
I will produce a more extensive analysis in a few hours
I still Wouldn't trust buys just yet as the bullish momentum isn't very clear as of yet - it could still drop at anytime - however as I would have mentioned earlier - sells in my opinion have become a hazard!
The dealer would have taken out traders stops at the previous low (blue circle) with this current spike low..which means that buyers would be taken out
Sellers also would have been induced below that level and are currently being dragged the wrong way - making sells dangerous at this time
Concerning the orange line - even more buyers are being induced and what I am asking here now is why would the dealer induce buyers if he wants to sell? He'd induce buyers if he wants to buy - stop out those same buyers by selling temporarily and then spiking the market higher up
Just my 2 cents - still can't make a move yet but let us watch and see what happens
s3.tradingview.com
Update - the dealer is driving price lower - either possibly to resume sells (unlike in my opinion) but possible
OR
To stop out buyers on the previous bullish induction (orange line)
I ask again - why would the dealer induce buyers if he wanted to sell the market ?
Pink line possible???
s3.tradingview.com
To me sells would only become viable again if price can get back to the previous low (purple circle) and break that low
s3.tradingview.com
1 Minute time frame shows a break and retest (to sell) and seller induction - What could be the reason for trying to get traders to sell?
s3.tradingview.com
Why would the dealer give such a good opportunity to sell here?
Also pay close attention to how the spread is being manipulated - look at how much wider it is at this time
s3.tradingview.com
Yummmmm lol
s3.tradingview.com
One thing we have to take into consideration - what if this is a spike to take out sellers to then drop? - if it is, buys still aren't safe yet but sells are still off the table
s3.tradingview.com
Watch for this level to be stop hunted before entering buys I think
s3.tradingview.com
If Price can push back bullish from here - I think you have a safe (ish) buy possible
We have the bullish momentum on our side now..
What do you think ?
s3.tradingview.com
Price hasn't confirmed the bull move has returned yet - wait
I'd prefer it to clear that high first
s3.tradingview.com
And this my friends is why we wait lol
s3.tradingview.com
Giving it a try around this level - Godspeed to me LOL
s3.tradingview.com
Stopped out - On to the next
s3.tradingview.com
Buys off the table for now as it seems gold is preparing to consolidate for a while...sitting on my hands for now
A Pullback!Gold have recently experienced a significant downward trend.
This decline started with the breaking of the support line and the ascending trend line, indicating a major shift in market dynamics.
Technical analysis reveals that gold has reached and broken through the first determined support level, which is typically a bearish indicator for price trends.
Currently, we are witnessing a pullback, where the price is returning to the previously broken support level.
This is a common occurrence in financial markets, where prices retest a key level after a breakout to confirm the break. Considering this trend, gold prices are expected to continue exploring and touching the next support levels.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.
What GOLD did today - EXPLAINEDGood Morning folks - How is everyone this morning, As per yesterday, I closed my sell around the green circle because if you remember what I said. I mentioned that gold would be temporarily bearish so sells should hold for that long (we know it won't be forever)
It seems that I was right to close because price didn't go that much lower after me closing, only really adding 1R to the trade but had I held it it would have definitely come back up to take back profits from me.
I have a new analysis this morning because obviously a lot happened and there is new data that we can observe. So let's get into it
Firstly just after the green circle you will notice a blue circle I believe that if price has to actually go up (back bullish) it needs to at least clear this area because this would be the lowest point in recent times - which suggests that there would be a great deal of buyers at this level. If there are a lot of buyers at this level we know there are a lot of stops below this level and thus a lot of liquidity trapped below there, if the dealer wants that liquidity he needs to drive price back to that low to stop hunt that level in a way like the (orange line) when and if he gets there is yet to be seen.
After the big blue circle we have the 2 yellow lines creating a bullish channel - which again suggests that even more buyers are buying because at the areas below the taps I have indicated, we know that there would be a lot of stop losses below these areas and thus even more liquidity.
The question we have to ask ourselves is - does the dealer wish to drive price back bullish while keeping these buyers in their positions and allowing them to win?
If I were the dealer - absolutely not, if I were the dealer and I needed liquidity (energy) to drive price bullish and I knew it had liquidity lower, in a heart beat I'd find a way to push price lower to take out those stops
As of right now I can't do anything as the market currently is neither bullish or bearish momentum based so I have no choice but to wait and watch but rest assured I'd be watching lol
I'd be lying to you if I could tell you what I think is going to happen next - I don't, but sometimes that is set up in such a way to test traders ability to sit and watch.
Market isn't doing much - leave it alone, wait for your set up.
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See you guys in a few hours for an update :)
s3.tradingview.com
Just got back from the gym - Checking it now ,seeing as we have news in 15 minutes or so
The fact that gold is pushing so aggressively prior to said event - further strengthens the case for sells in my opinion
Why would it go through all this stress to buy before the news and continue to buy? when we know we need to destroy buyers at the low
This bull push could be to continue to induce buyers at this point only to crash gold further down to take out liquidity of all buyers who bought on the trend and at the low
I think the green line is the path for this news event - More sells definitely make more sense to me at this point between now and the news event itself
I wouldn't sell yet by the way - I need confirmation of momentum (bearish) first
What do you think?
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s3.tradingview.com
Update - This bearish candle is worrying me a bit in terms of sells - It is inducing sellers at this point - which suggests that it could be a whipsaw (clear out both buyers and sellers) at this point - Which also makes sense for the dealer
Considering the fact that gold hasn't destroyed sellers for the NFP event on Friday - Maybe now is the dealer's chance to destroy EVERYONE
The question is if it were going to sell - why would it sell before the news event to start to get sellers interested?
I Definitely don't advice trading this market at this time AT ALL
I Still think the green line is possible but this is scary
Way too dangerous
s3.tradingview.com
1 minute time frame shows a break and retest set up - in a class with a student and we just realized this.
Price actively targeting the previous high it just created maybe to stop out sellers before actually dropping - that would be lovely
At this time buyers again may be induced at this level to buy - which again strengthens my belief for sells
Again I am telling you - take my stupid advice, don't try to trade this news event lol
s3.tradingview.com
Yup it is a whipsaw - Take out both buyers and sellers
God alone knows what can happen now - I told you guys to stay away, it was way to dangerous
s3.tradingview.com
It could still sell from here (in accordance with the green line) however but again the after news volatility is still to high - I still don't advice trying anything
s3.tradingview.com
That was a disgusting whipsaw - holyyyyyy wawwww
s3.tradingview.com
How did I know it would likely be a whipsaw? The red candle prior to this candle sold it out - Let me explain
So the red candle that closed prior to this current candle is an outlier and the reason for that is simple
Why would the dealer go through all the stress of inducing buyers to buy and then try to also get sellers to sell - we have to constantly ask who is the dealer aiming to trap?
Originally I thought it would be the buyers alone but as soon as I saw that red candle I had to ask - why is the dealer inducing sellers as well?
The answer is he needs to clear the board - take out both buyers and sellers and that is very likely why the move is now playing out like I would have drawn earlier
Now that the board is cleared the dealer has enough liquidity (from both side - buyers and sellers) to make his move any way he sees fit.
The wick that is being created now further adds confirmation to this fact for me as he is still very much trying to get rid of any sellers who don't know how to deal with FOMO and are selling at this time DESPITE me warning not to do so lol
What you going to do right? the money has to come from somewhere - if you are trying to trade this now it is very likely that you are putting money into winning traders pockets later on
Godspeed folks
Downvote\don't boost if you didn't take the time to read this entire post and didn't try to understand
OR
Upvote\boost if you did take the time to read this entire post and did try to understand
We get paid as traders to UNDERSTAND contrary to popular belief, it is only when you understand you get paid - most traders have absolutely no idea what they are doing and are simply guessing and calling themselves traders
STOP. Slow down and try to understand what you are seeing.
Good luck to all traders today - Godspeed folks :)
s3.tradingview.com
GOLD Possible News Move?Just got back from the gym - Checking it now ,seeing as we have news in 15 minutes or so
The fact that gold is pushing so aggressively prior to said event - further strengthens the case for sells in my opinion
Why would it go through all this stress to buy before the news and continue to buy? when we know we need to destroy buyers at the low
This bull push could be to continue to induce buyers at this point only to crash gold further down to take out liquidity of all buyers who bought on the trend and at the low
I think the green line is the path for this news event - More sells definitely make more sense to me at this point between now and the news event itself
I wouldn't sell yet by the way - I need confirmation of momentum (bearish) first
What do you think?
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Gold | Short ideaGold is in a fierce downtrend and I am looking for more movement down. If gold gets rejected in this zone one more time I expect a reversal and a new low today! If that happens I will be looking for short positions! Their will be news coming out so watch out!
Let me know what you think!