NZDJPY 4HIn technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement levels indicate key areas where a stock may reverse or stall. Common ratios include 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50%, among others. Usually, these will occur between a high point and a low point for a security, designed to predict the future direction of its price movement
Fib-retracement
Market Structure + Orderblock + Fibonacci Retracement = FailedMarket Structure + Orderblock + Fibonacci Retracement = Failed
Here's why:
Trendlines, S/R Levels, Chart & Candlestick Patterns are still relevant.
Trade could have worked. It passed all the other criteria (market structure downtrend + bearish fib ret ote zone + bearish ob).
It was just a right trade at the wrong level.
Has inflation really peaked? Not so sureWe have been inside this green triangle since 1915.
The downtrend line has been tested a few times and this is the first year it actually went past it and recently came down for a retest.
Hard to feel like inflation has peaked also considering oil is still in an uptrend and the Fed couldn't have been more hawkish in the last Powell's speech, so we may be up for a rough surprise in tomorrow's CPI report. The Fib retracement points at a possible 12.50-13.00% inflation read, let's see what we get.
Going down, for nowHi everyone,
Yesterday I talked about how VETUSDT might go back to its demand zone. (link down below)
Today, as I expected, we are not going to have any volatility and it is going to be a bit quiet than the last couple of days. This is only a probability but we might still have some moves.
For DOTUSDT, we are in a wedge and we are most probably doing a retracement to at least the 0.5 Fib level where we also have the support trendline of the wedge.
Please comment if you have any questions, I will try my best to answer them.
Thank you😊
AMD short opportunityAMD: Using fib retracement, after an impulsive move a pullback to the 0.5, 0.618, or 0.786 is very likely and healthy in an uptrend.
~ Golden cross happened on the 11th signaling the start of another uptrend.
~ on the 11th AMD did a similar but smaller sized impulse with a pullback to the 0.786. This helps visualize the theory of fib
~ RSI on the hourly has a lot of room to "dump"
XRP Daily - Trendline BreakUpdate from the previous post, we broke the downtrend, the wedge posted wasn't a great setup once we started breaking lower.
We will see if we reject these retracements above between $1.50 and $1.80 then we can expect a move down.
Alternatively, if we push towards $2 a break above would expect a continuation.
More to follow soon.
XRP Weekly - End Of Feb OutlookThis shows the 2 scenarios I see playing out this month.
I think we fill in the wick towards $0.66 either way, but once we see that we could either:
1. Continue higher breaking $0.80 and moving towards $0.95 - $1
If we see a high timeframe candle closes above the wicks at $0.77 - $0.78
2. Once we retrace back to $0.60, we slowdown again enticing more noobs looking to make a quick buck.
A move back to $0.40 - $0.25 would be a great way to shake out more people who jump back in at $0.60+
The dominance chart also shows the same bullish move coming soon:
Either way $1 - $2+ this year is inevitable at this point and they're rookie numbers.
The use cases behind XRP are needed more than ever during a liquidity crisis.
Once XRP comes to solve the liquidity crisis, supply v demand would make it much higher than $1 - $2
XRP 12H - Daily Bullish Wedge RevisedI have revised this wedge / triangle to suit the 12H timeframe which includes a solid fibonacci retracement.
The price action did not abide by the previous post so amending it to suit the most recent high and lows makes more sense.
If we zoom into the 4H we can see the 61.8 being respected and now the 78.6 being tapped to a T
Should this hold and we see a solid 12H & Daily close back within the trendline / triangle, I would be very happy with this set up and a bullish move to happen going into Feb.
DXY 6H - EOY Bullish MoveFollowing my Daily chart on this chart:
This intraday fib adds up to see a push up to 93.5 before we get an idea on who tf won this election, Jan 20th.
From there I would expect the $ to continue crashing, just an idea.
I would not trade this as it is going against a heavy downtrend since March though it is good to add it as a confluence to other pairs.
If this bullishness holds up this week I would like to see it continue for the first weeks in January.
See how the year ends...
BTC 1H LongsFollowing my previous 4H chart posted:
Taking a buy based on the 4H closing at the 78.6 fib and at the low of the wick to the left creating a head and shoulders formation after a double bottom at support.
We are very bearish atm for this pair but with the alignment of fib levels on the 4H chart posted seem too good to not try and trade.
I feel $16,500 has been respected as support and should see $18k again before we fill lose gaps around $10k.
XRP 3D - Monthly ResistanceCurrently at the monthly candle closes this huge spike, still think we need to pull back to sub $0.20 before any major $1 moves in my opinion.
Either this moons in January or November i don't see it being this year though it would be nice, a cross point has just shown itself now.
Lets see if this fib plays out and how these daily canldes closes, the weekly also closes tomorrow so this could be a huge turning point, I think we're parabolic above $0.65 but for now lets not get too greedy.
See how tomorrow ends init 🤞🤞
XLM (Stellar) - 3D ChartOut of all the pairs, XLM seems to have the cleanest set up for the bias I still have, XRP has done bits this week which I was not expecting but I still dont think this is a parabolic bull run.
Another drop across the majority of cryptos abiding by this current fib retracement and hopefully the extension as well being a huge buying opportunity again.
If we keep flying I can only hope you were here in March.
XRP Daily - EOY RevisedUsing the zones shown with the reasons ( 61.8 & 78.6 retracements ) for them being there shows why we have seen price push up to $0.28500 just now.
$0.29999 is a major prior resistance which I could see being tested one more time before a final drop to $0.17000 before we moon in January, hopefully 🤞
Bitcoin should bring down a majority of the market aiding this bias as it will be banned / useless due to governments / regulators saying it's bad for climate change, IMO.
I would expect the long term fib retracements to come through the end of this month and throughout December before the extensions / bull run occurs in the new year.
Fibonacci Retrace EducationI've had a few of you guys asking me about how I determine my corrective/reversal points per fib, and since I had a great trader teach me the ropes on how fib moves, I thought I would do the same.
Follow each colored arrow to its respective fib. These are typical fib patterns to see on retraces.
The same happens in bear markets.
Also, you will need to apply these rules to the respective range.
None of this is guaranteed to happen also.
Studying fib will quickly teach you that there's fibs within fibs, so that's why you really have to measure each level and measure all ranges.
This becomes easier through time and as you apply it to your trading. Best practice is to just study retraces.
Fib IMO works best with an oscillator of choice, and an advanced level of understanding volume within price action.
Lastly, understand -- not even fib is perfect and I did not list every typical scenario that fib retraces show.
These are most of them though.
If you understand the power of the 618 and the 382 (618 inverse), then you're well on your way.
*not an indication to buy or sell*
*use at your own risk*
Educational Purposes Only.
Goodluck.
Two potential scenarios for OMG based on fib levelsDepending on whether OMG rebounds from here, could be a double bottom or a longer slide down.
It must rebound with good volume to make a bottom more likely.
I am wary of the lack of massive buy volume of OMG at this level.