GBPJPY – Golden Pocket Breakout SetupTimeframe: 1H | 🎯 Bias: Bullish Breakout
GBPJPY is testing a key Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5–0.618) from the recent impulse leg (194.00 → 196.195). This golden pocket sits inside strong demand and could launch the next leg higher.
🔍 Technical Confluence
Fib Support Zone: 195.270–195.447 (0.618–0.5)
Price Action: Consolidating near golden pocket, showing rejection wicks
Structure: Higher highs and higher lows intact
RSI: Resetting around 45–50, leaving room for momentum buildup
Next Resistance: 196.200 (previous high), then 197.300 and 198.500
🧠 Fundamental Confluence
GBP Strength Drivers:
BoE's "hawkish cut" tone — restrictive policy to fight sticky inflation
UK macro improving: upcoming GDP & labor data could surprise to the upside
Market pricing less aggressive easing compared to peers = GBP premium
JPY Weakness Factors:
COT RSI at 100% = overbought positioning
BoJ delays normalization to 2027
Risk-on flows (VIX ~16.7) reducing safe-haven demand
Macro Flows: Bullish NASDAQ + stable oil → support GBPJPY upside
Macro Themes:
Oil & NAS100 bullish = supports GBPJPY upside
Market unwinding defensive positions = bullish for GBPJPY
🛠 Trade Plan
📥 Entry Option 1: Buy on bullish reaction from 195.27–195.45 (Fib golden pocket)
📥 Entry Option 2: Break and close above 196.200 (confirmation entry)
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 195.00 (under Fib + recent structure)
🎯 TP1: 196.80
🎯 TP2: 198.00 (measured move)
📌 “Golden pockets don’t lie when fundamentals align.”
