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Fifth

Picture Perfect Cup And Handle?Given that the market structure has been pretty weak lately, if we print another rounded top on our way up to hit the cup and handle targets, ill probably scale almost 100% out of the markets. We've been banging against overhead resistance in the middle of this channel for some time now and i would expect a pretty substantial drop after this next leg up. Obviously nobody knows where the next top will be but i'm aiming at 80-90K, it may break up it may break down, keep your eyes on the charts and trade accordingly. Its good to note that as we near, what i am looking at as getting close to, the end of the cycle remember to pull profits frens. You haven't made any money until your profits are actualized. And as always, Good Luck And Safe Trading.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by CapitulationCalls
Sand Path to Ultimate ATH 4K: Road Map for 2020 and BeyondPure WAG and sheer speculation. Absolutely NOT investing advice! This post is strictly for your amusement only; intended purely to entertain, so enjoy! NB: Near-term some sort of correction is due, index trading >2SD above 50DMA, RSI overbought near 80; absent a Fed Hike on 28/29 Jan, expect a modest pullback. The monster break of Feb 2018 is unlikely to repeat now without adverse Fed rate action, but ofc anything is possible in this nutty market- not for faint of heart! In 2019 every correction started on the day of the Fed meetings, in May, July and September... IMO history likes to repeat, seems like a good bet. Could start now, from Friday's close at 3330! The down move could be a 6-10% correction, deeper is doubtful, but possible; it's a 4th wave and these tend to be tricky trading. Expect wild choppy swings like we saw in August- whipsawing, don't get your hands cut off! Save ur cash for Wave 5, it will be a terrific long play! After this move completes, what comes after is anybody's guess, but this market has shown a proclivity for double tops, IMO is likely to do so again; pre-election jitters likely may start a deeper correction in Sep/Oct. We had a Bullish October in 2019; a Bearish one in 2020 is a likely consequence IMO. Beyond the election: entirely depends on the Donald pulling off re-election; as an incumbent with enormous cash to burn, his chances are better than 50-50 IMO; I expect him to win it, when he does, markets will rocket to the Moon- the 2.618 Fibo extension is certainly within grasp up around 4128! Again, this post is pure Wild-Assed-Guessing, the tail WAGs the dog, GLTA! Be careful, be cautious, be prudent at this juncture! -DS
TVC:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
52
DJIA Long Cycle: In Fifth of Fifth Primary EWChart says all; a few salients: Long Trend: The entire movement of late 90's up to 2009 was a giant Zig-Zag correction of the 90's Bull Market. The 2000 dot-com bubble burst provoked a mighty B wave lasting several years, that ultimately culminated in the 2008/09 crash, when prices fell below 2000 levels in a great 'h'. The current cycle began 09 March 2009 with the initiation of a long string of Minor and Intermediate EWs, interspersed with ABC corrections and more recently, another great zig-zag that began in Feb 2018. This pattern is not yet complete; we are enjoying a 3-Drives end game run to ATH, now in the second Drive. A minor ABC in November to test lower TL of wedge should provoke the final Drive to the Top, culminating in Jan 2020 where the long TL intersects the rising wedge from 2018. In near-term: We have Bearish divergence between indexes now even as go-go stocks eke out new marginal ATHs, most of the market is already declining; breadth is poor and volume quite low, on Monday 28 Oct volume of 1.5k m shares was half normal and the VIX actually increased on a new ATH for SPX; NQ Composite got within four pips of it's ATH, but DOW is still over 300 off its high, and RUT never got close. DJT transports were actually negative, a leading indicator for the broader market, which may have a small incremental gain left, or perhaps not. There are not a lot of buyers up at these stratospheric prices! Certainly no accumulation is taking place here. Outlook: Uncertainty in Feb/Mar 2020 of an election year with an impeachment ongoing and the disappointment that a finalized bona fide deal with China is years away, if ever, coupled with Fed decision to hold rates to 2% inflation, no more or less, and weak ERs from a sluggish economy will certainly weigh on global financial markets and likely create a rather Bearish mood. Distribution will be protracted and furious. Concluding Projection: The completion of a Primary ten-year cycle in Jan or Feb 2020 will likely usher in a new Bear market. A Correction of 20-30% is both possible and likely. The Megaphone projects Dow ~20K by mid-2020 to complete the zig-zag pattern, a 7K pip selloff > 26%. As elections near, uncertainty will pass after Nov 2020 and the next Bull cycle might begin in 2021, if the Bear lasts only nine months. A three-year Bear would be a tough trading environment, everyone gets killed from constant whipsawing volatility. If we get a 1929-style correction then a long grinding Bear with persistent erosion of value is quite possible. A Warren administration would be the death knell! This is just another observation and does not constitute trading advice; seek that from a qualified advisor please, and trade at your own risk! GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
4
SPX Intraday Bear Flag: In CD Leg of Bullish ButterflySee my related post on SPY. It's a Butterfly pattern. Current price is retesting the breakdown TL. I am short this index at 2900. The wedge grows narrow, rapidly tightening. Break imminent IMO. Won't be a good time to buy long until Butterfly completes. Expected termination of CD Leg around 2720-2740, by Monday 28 October. Go long after price break completes for best R/R. Final Bull wave should carry SPX above 3100-3150 at the 1.618 Fibo extension. It will be a Fifth Primary of the Fifth supercycle. Not trading advice; just another wild idea; trade at your own rick! GLTA!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
I SPY a Bullish Butterfly: In CD Downleg before ATHSimilar idea to my Dow US 30 post. Sand P is statistically a stronger model, from larger numbers. NB: This model is imperfect as the XD spread should be 1.27, but we got a real nice 0.62 Fibo AB retrace of the XA leg up. Note the perfect double top Fibo = 1 (was within a few pips, a 99.9% retrace). Real life is like that, we take what the market gives us. The Bearish CD corrective retracement of the XA Bullish leg should be slightly deeper and show true capitulation to create the bargains that fuel next drive to ATH. Moel extension suggest low prices to occur on/about Monday, 28 October. The Dow pattern projects 29 October, the 90th anniversary of the '29 crash, how fitting! If model is an accurate projection, expect final support near 273. There will likely be a counter trend corrective wave up within a few days that will fake out buyers. Capitulation begins when the new players buying at these still pricey levels get disappointed. That's when the real opportunity exists. Wait for it! THe entire movement appears to be a 4th Primary wave; If model is correct, the resulting fifth-in-fifth wave to ATH will carry ETF to 315+; when Sand P trading above 3150! This isn't advice, just an idea based on Harmonic trading pattern model. Market can easily double-fakeout, be cautious! GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
6
US 30 Upside Explosion; Possible Ultimate ATH: 30K?Just an idea. Not sayin' this is goin' down; maybe we already saw ATH today on 7/15. But, maybe a brief pullback to lower channel TL culminating on 7/23 will provoke a feeding frenzy coupled with FOMC rate cut to push the darn thing to 30K. Could easily rise another 6-8% in euphoria and carefree complacency that prevails atm. If this plays out the subsequent selloff will be spectacular- at least 10k pips. Probably gonna see a day when it tanks off 2k in one session later this year or early next. FGS trade carefully or just stay out and marvel at the insanity! I marked this idea as 'long' but I'm not betting on it just yet. See if we get a sell to entry for the fifth of fifth of fifth of... whatever wave this is now. GLTA!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
2
US 30 Setup to test ATHJust an idea; I'm not sure about this but I expected a LOT more selling, and it's not happening. An ABC countertrend surge may be in progress; if so, we'll have a new ATH this summer. There is NO rational or logical reason for this to occur; therefore I consider it highly likely. IT's exactly what happened in 1929... Fascinating that Fib time projects possible ATH on 03 September 2019... exactly 90 years to the day! If you read nothing else on TV, read this re valuations and future ROI: www.marketwatch.com During the final phase of the Bull market, irrational, frantic exuberance fueled by short covering will drive prices to extreme highs, until the shorts are covered... then the real selling begins. FYI I closed all my shorts today Weds 6/12/19, maybe a mistake, but futurz are pumping up again, so I can sleep at night. As always, this is not any kind of investment advice, just another crackpot idea. Please comment and like if you do! Thanks for watching. -DS
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
I Spy A Fed Guy; Two Roads Diverge...Take Less Traveled?!Terrific rally to the 0.786 Fibo; looks like a slamdown at 290 today. We all expected a rally, but this one blew us away. Now we are back in the middle; higher prices but year. Pullback seems imminent; look carefully, however, you may find at least three similar Doji's that fooled us. Cautiously shorting in anticipation of trade and Fed combo worries leading up to FOMC meet next week. No guarantees in this game. Two roads diverge at the meeting: a rate cut will trigger massive upside explosion and race to new ATH in July. EW theory suggests we may be in a 2nd of 5th wave, if so, a 3rd-of-5th would be terrifically bullish, a final blowoff meltup to cap the final surge of the Great Bull. These Elliot Waves are always and only clear in the Retrospectometer. FOMC Disappointment... well, you know. Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
16
SPY H&S in ABC Correction EW 4: To Retest 24 Dec LowChart says all. updated prior post with corrected line positions given interval price changes. C wave length and duration mimics A wave. The H&S pattern appears to be an extension of the correction but note it is also a pennant, or continuation pattern. The trend: still down, entering a fifth intermediate of primary third wave. expect double bottom to retest 233 low. From there it should give a V-notched spike formation and a more powerful rally- perhaps near-vertical back up to or over 260-264. Get ready for fireworks! More to come. GLTA, HNY! As always, for education and amusement not investment advice, trade at your own risk!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
26
US 30 in ABC correction: A Bull Trap; expect Lower soon!Wow what an amazing jump! Does it mean the bears are back in hibernation? Doubtful. Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear! Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the intermediate wave, thus a strong double wave effect will likely terminate the countertrend positive corrective wave (4) near 23,300. (Marked by Pincher arrows) Wave 4 may not rise above wave 1, which terminated at 23824, this yields a cap on 4th wave rally. Wave 5 will be stunning and terrifying. Bulls that thought it was all over will panic and despair. Traders who short puts will be wiped out. An estimate of termination for Primary Wave 5 from Fib extensions yields Dow 19072 at the 1.618 extension. An extension lower is certainly possible. The Fib spiral for intermediate Wave (3) reveals expected floor for (5) at 20542, for a 1.272 extension, and also curtails the subsequent, expected 4th Primary Wave rally to near 22700, at Fib time projection near 19-21 Feb 2019. Do not be long in this market! Do not start selling puts for income! I wouldn't sell either puts OR calls short in this market, odds are you will get scared into big losses on both sides. Be patient; be careful! Stay away and save trading capital if in doubt. Risk:Reward very poor right now, risk very high, reward likely low. As always, this post for education and amusement only and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
6
SPX Fifth of the Fifth Wave coming in Rare Three Drives PatternReasonably confident these wave counts are accurate. It's more art than science. Look at Mark Rivest's counts , he is even more optimistic than I am: We've got a triple combo 5-V-v wave forming off the shallow 4th wave last week. My Fibo projection for the last stage of the rally is 2937, but it could blow through that easily, won't be surprised to see it over 2950, although I really doubt it will get above 3 standard deviations from channel trend midline. I'll be taking a small but significant (perhaps 20%) long position to see if I can ride the tiger one last time. Lot of risk up in the nosebleed seats, be careful! The Three Drives pattern is rare so I've struggled to make EW fit but this pattern fits perfectly and calls for a 1.618 Fibo at 2937 on index. I expect to get there Wednesday. I usually post about US 30 but it will follow this and the Gartley Fibo for that I published already is 26268 with a B-D ratio of 1.618 and X-D 0.887. After that I'm closing longs and look for the reversal pivot signals. The downside after a monster rally like this is potentially huge and could break down 5-8% in a final leg C of the zig-zag correction that began in Jan. Most traders and investors will be shocked and amazed because they think the correction is over. The fat lady hasn't sung yet! Note to self: Next time you write about Fan Principle Projection, maybe consider taking a position, doh! Been bullfighting the whole way like a stubborn donkey. The only feeling worse than being right and then betting against yourself is watching a profit turn to loss. Last week: I got both those loving feelings! The trend is your friend. Although Sand P is trading two full standard deviations above midchannel (Modified Schiff fork brings it out nicely), and is high above 20D MA, the trend and sentiment still say higher. Could break at any time, but I reckon there are a couple of bullish days left in it and quite possibly an exhaustion gap up on last day (pretty sure last gap was an initiation gap for the 3rd of this 5th wave, it was not yet retraced... but it will be!). Ill be looking for the usual signs of topping out and the brief consolidation we typically get before the decline, will post as I see them. As always, this isn't investment advice, it's just an interesting idea for education only; you trade at your own risk, Good luck!
SP:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
14
Possibly charting breakout of channel and recovery of correctionExtreme bullishness prevails. Vix- dropping off to almost nothing. What looks like a tiny Elliott wave 2 formed Friday AM but quickly dissolved into bullish enthusiasm. If this is the breakout move gathering strength, then the chart shows a possible course. I believe we may have entered minor wave 3 of the V(v) 5th wave already ('third-in-fifth wave'). I lost some bank shorting into the countertrend wave today then was horrified to see the Bulls stampede up to 25740 before settling back. I do NOT recommend shorting anytime soon! Any pullbacks now will be brief and slight, no way to gain anything and all risk. Go long! Purchased Dow index calls on the slight pullback in late afternoon. Futures bulled higher after the close and I expect higher still Monday. I would not be surprised to see another 300-point gainer. Expect the SPX to break 3000 on this runup, by November or sooner. As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
16
Long Term S&P500 UpdateOn the weekly chart, it seems as if we are approaching a top that should give us a reasonably substantial correction sometime during 2018. However, on the shorter term, the market it still pointing up, and therefore, is still good to buy on intra-day and intra-week swings to the upside. Historically, the market finds some kind of resistance when approaching round figures such as 2700 and we must be careful when buying around these levels. It would be a bad idea to start looking for bearish trades before the market gives any evidence. Overall, I am looking for the market to top out in 2018 and retrace but I expect this bull market to continue and by 2019, we should have new highs depending on the duration of Primary 4.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by StippWian
XEL Looks interestingWe have a cup & handle formation with a small tail wich can be just before a huge push. RSI for 6H & 12H looks to be crossed wich indicate we could go up from here. What i'm fearing now is the elliot formation, Did we have the third wave (5) or is that still to come. We just bounced on the 3h ichimoko cloud wich is nice, If we would have gone trough the cloud this idé would not be published. If everything goes to plan my target is 35 to 38. That would be a 100% gain for XEL. If it falls down to 17, i'm out. Please share your ideas with me.
X
by Bjurhager
5