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If BTC were in a real bear market...This chat shows what I am tracking in the case that Bitcoin breaks down from here, on a longer term time frame (red arrows), and enters a real bear market (not just a correction, which I think we could potentially be seeing at the moment). As I have learned from being in this market since early 2016, if you think Bitcoin can drop X amount and hit a "bottom"... double that amount, it will drop way more than you think. If you think it can go up X amount, double that amount, it will go up way more than you think. And at the same time, if someone has a wild prediction like "Bitcoin will hit $196,000 by September 12th at 4:30pm"... that is complete nonsense, but of course it could happen! Fact is, nobody can predict the future. ESPECIALLY those who say "Bitcoin NEEDS to go up because X"... Bitcoin does not NEED to do ANYTHING they say. The market will do what the market does and you can only prepare for the best outcome. But the main idea here is, you will never 100% know when those rallies or those dumps will start, and you will never 100% know when each top or bottom is reached. There is only so much technical technical analysis that can be done. Only so many predictions that can be made. What it really comes down to is, time in the market beats timing the market. I'm a buy and hold type of investor, for all stocks, cryptocurrencies, and real estate. Technical analysis "chart art" is simply a fun hobby for me, and it's entertaining to see the "guru" predictions and ultra technical colorful lines people draw, wave counts, spirals, pictures, etc... whatever you call it... I believe in strategies that absolutely work. And it's up to you to find what works for you. For me, that's buy and hold, for the long term. Wishing you all the best of luck in 2022! - HDLR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by hdlr
9
CADJPY HERE COME THE BEARS 81.500Good evening from the UK as you may have seen on my Instagram story (travis_duncz) I entered short on this pair. CADJPY for the month of March we have been in a downtrend. I have a had a breakout of a trend line with a strong bullish candle on Monday April 1st. However i see this as a false breakout. Many traders would presume the momentum would of continued to the upside. Well April fools! That isn't the case. Monitoring lower timeframes we have had rejections of 83.800 similar to our daily timeframe during the middle of march with multiple doji's and spinning tops. Guys we can also say we have a 'Corrective Double top' read up on this charting pattern also suggests bearish momentum. Throwing into the mix also is a Daily hanging man. It is 20:00 in the UK so i do have 2 hours for this confirmation. However if the daily candle today closes as a hanging man which has formed at the end of this 48 hour uptrend I have my eyes set on a definite swing low. Now being conservative you would want to wait for perhaps 4H timeframe closures beneath the wick of the daily candle for a certified entry. My purple daily key level of 81.500 being my First target. Now its important to know your pairs. Majors exotics etc. Me knowing this pair I could take all week to hit this target but you need to adapt trading entire to your own technical and psychological comforts
Short
by Travis_duncz