A 14% drop in $VKTX and I might still win. Here's why! NASDAQ:VKTX
A 14% drop in NASDAQ:VKTX and I might still win. Here's why!
In this video analysis update on my position in NASDAQ:VKTX , we will discuss why I didn't sell after the 14% pullback and why it's important not to sell based on price movement! Enjoy.
Have you ever sold a stock and right after it flew to the upside?
Flag
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This Simple Strategy Could Make You a Fortune in the Gold Marketprice action of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) in relation to the trendlines and patterns indicated.
Chart Analysis
1. Weekly Flag Trendline:
- The first chart shows a trendline forming a "flag" pattern on a higher time frame (possibly weekly or daily). This flag appears to be a bullish continuation pattern, indicating that after the consolidation within the flag, the price might continue in the direction of the prior trend, which seems to be up.
2. Price Action Inside the Flag:
- Within the flag, there is a period of consolidation marked by the parallel trendlines. The price has been respecting these lines, creating higher lows and lower highs, indicating indecision or preparation for a breakout.
3. Potential Breakout Zones:
- Key breakout zones are marked by the upper resistance of the flag pattern around the 2,530 level and the lower support trendline of the flag around the 2,470 level. A breakout above the upper resistance could signal a continuation of the prior uptrend, while a break below the lower support could indicate a reversal or deeper pullback.
4. Smaller Patterns:
- On the second chart (1-hour time frame), there's a more detailed view of recent price action with a potential bearish flag or pennant forming, suggesting a temporary pullback or consolidation within the larger flag. This smaller pattern appears to be within a trading range bounded by the horizontal support and resistance levels.
5. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- The charts show horizontal support around the 2,433.301 level, which aligns with a historical low that could serve as a significant support level. Similarly, the resistance level is around 2,530, where the price has repeatedly failed to break above.
6. Current Market Context:
- The price is currently hovering around 2,497, near the middle of the trading range, suggesting indecision. This midpoint could be a neutral zone where the price could move in either direction based on upcoming market momentum or news.
Trading Strategy and Considerations
- Entry Points:
- If considering a bullish scenario, a long entry could be planned near the lower support line of the flag, around 2,470, with a stop loss slightly below the flag's support to manage risk. A breakout above the 2,530 resistance could also provide a good entry point for a continuation of the uptrend.
- For a bearish scenario, a short entry could be considered if the price breaks below the 2,470 support level, confirming a breakdown from the flag pattern.
- Risk Management:
- The proximity of the price to both upper and lower boundaries of the flag pattern provides clear levels for stop placement. This helps in managing risk effectively, keeping losses contained if the trade goes against the initial bias.
- Monitoring Price Action:
- Watch for potential breakouts from the smaller patterns within the flag, as these could provide early signals of the larger move's direction. It would also be essential to keep an eye on volume changes, as increased volume could confirm the validity of a breakout or breakdown.
By aligning your trades with these patterns and key levels, you can take advantage of the potential setups provided by the price action within these consolidating formations. Ensure to adapt to new market conditions and stay disciplined in executing your trading plan.
GBPJPY - SHORT: Trade Recap, 27/08/2024Bias Analysis: Daily minor swing at equilibrium and 4H trading out of Order Block. 1H range was bearish with price at a 1H Order Block well within Optimal Trade Entry.
Entry Criteria: 15M protracted counter to my bias, swept upside liquidity and traded deep within the 1H Order Block before an engulfing candle printed.
Grade: High Quality Valid
What I did well or could do better:
- Exercised patience after the first 15M TBL sweep and reversal print as we had a shallow mitigation of the order block with a 1-sided fair value gap resting below.
- Observed the full picture and made a process based decision to enter, full accepting the risk.
- I could've been more mindful of inputting the correct data into my position size calculator as the position was too small.
Gold Teeters on the Edge: Major Reversal or Breakout?The charts provided for XAU/USD (Gold Spot) on various time frames present a comprehensive analysis scenario where several key patterns and zones align across different time frames.
Analysis Breakdown:
1. **Daily Time Frame (1st Chart):**
- Rising Wedge Pattern: This is typically a bearish reversal pattern, especially when it forms after a significant uptrend. The price is nearing the upper boundary of this wedge.
- Daily Liquidity Zone (LQZ) at ~2,484, The price is within a critical liquidity zone. This zone often acts as a magnet for price action, where significant buying or selling can occur. A reaction here could signal a reversal, particularly since it aligns with the top of the wedge.
2. 4-Hour Time Frame (2nd Chart):
- Continuation of the Rising Wedge: The 4-hour chart mirrors the daily chart, emphasizing the wedge pattern's significance. The price is testing the upper boundary of this wedge, which could result in a breakout or a reversal.
- Confluence at LQZ: The price is closely interacting with the daily LQZ, reinforcing its importance. Multiple touches near this area might suggest either absorption of liquidity before a breakout or a potential exhaustion leading to a pullback.
3. 1-Hour Time Frame (3rd Chart):
- Bearish Flag Structures: Two bearish flags are visible, which are typically continuation patterns indicating the possibility of a downward move. These have occurred within the broader rising wedge.
- Approach to Key Resistance: The price is at a critical juncture where the rising wedge's upper boundary coincides with a strong resistance level.
4. 15-Minute Time Frame (4th Chart):
- Breakout and Retest Scenario: On the lowest time frame, a breakout from the bearish flag is evident, with the price retesting the structure's top. This may indicate either a continuation to the upside or a failure and reversal, depending on how it interacts with the liquidity zone above.
Potential Trading Scenarios:
- Reversal Scenario: Given the rising wedge pattern and its bearish implications, combined with the proximity to a significant liquidity zone, there's a strong potential for a reversal. Watch for a clear bearish signal on the 4-hour or daily chart, such as a bearish engulfing candle, which could confirm the reversal. A break below the wedge's lower boundary would be a stronger confirmation.
- Breakout Scenario: If the price breaks above the wedge's upper boundary and holds, especially on the daily chart, it could signal a continuation of the uptrend. However, be cautious of potential false breakouts, especially around such strong resistance and liquidity zones.
- Entry Considerations: If considering a short entry, look for a rejection from the LQZ on the 4-hour or 1-hour chart, ideally supported by bearish confirmation patterns (e.g., engulfing candles, pin bars). A reduced-risk entry could be taken on a lower time frame after the breakout and retest of the wedge or flag structure.
GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar)
Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements.
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1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart)
- Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement.
- Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal.
2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts)
- Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum.
- Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move.
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3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points
- 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases.
- 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area.
- Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point.
- Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward.
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4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum**
- Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown.
- Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move.
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5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment
- Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit.
- Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend.
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6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations
- Bullish Scenario:
- Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774).
- Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774.
- Bearish Scenario:**
- Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ).
- Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel.
- Neutral/Baseline Strategy:
- Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move.
- Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves.
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Conclusion:
The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel.
This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
Gold Traders Alert: Crucial Levels to Watch for the Next Trade!Key Components:
Chart Type and Pair:
The chart is a 1-hour (1H) timeframe for the Gold Spot/U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) pair.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Horizontal Resistance Line at $2,446.18: This is labeled as "1HR LQZ" (1-hour liquidity zone), indicating a significant resistance level where price might face selling pressure.
Horizontal Support Line at $2,347.82: Also labeled as "1HR LQZ," indicating a significant support level where the price might find buying interest.
Trend Lines:
There are descending yellow trend lines drawn, indicating a downtrend. The lower yellow trend line has a label suggesting a "Potential 3rd Touch," which typically indicates a possible point for a bounce or reversal.
Price Action:
The recent price action shows a lower high (LH) formation near $2,446.18, suggesting a downtrend continuation.
Two potential scenarios are sketched on the right side of the chart with different colored lines (orange and green) depicting possible future price movements.
Analysis:
Current Trend:
The overall trend appears to be bearish due to the formation of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL).
Support and Resistance:
The price is currently trading between two significant levels ($2,446.18 and $2,347.82). Breaking either level with strong momentum could indicate the next directional move.
The price nearing the lower yellow trend line for a potential third touch suggests a possible bounce. If the price respects this trend line, it could indicate a temporary support.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (Green Path):
If the price finds support at the lower yellow trend line and the horizontal support at $2,347.82, it might bounce back towards $2,446.18. Breaking above this level could lead to a further rise.
Bearish Scenario (Orange Path):
If the price fails to hold the support at the yellow trend line and $2,347.82, it might continue to fall. A break below this support level could lead to further declines, targeting lower support levels not shown in the chart.
Can Gold Surpass Its Recent Highs? Expert Analysis Inside!Key Levels:
Higher High (HH): Marked near the top at around 2460.
Lower High (LH): Slightly lower high indicating a possible trend change.
Support/Resistance Zones: Key support/resistance levels are identified on the chart.
Lower Time Frame (LTF) Lower High: Indicated by a yellow line, suggesting a lower high on a smaller timeframe within the larger trend.
Liquidity Zones (LQZ): Marked on the 4-hour, 1-hour, and daily timeframes indicating potential areas of liquidity.
Market Structure:
Shorter Time Frame Higher Low: A higher low is indicated on a smaller timeframe, suggesting potential bullish continuation.
Barley Missed HH and then pushed down: Indicates a failure to achieve a higher high, followed by a downward movement.
Support Rejection: The market rejects off support, suggesting a possible formation of a new higher low (HL).
Observations:
The market is reacting to support and resistance levels, showing signs of potential trend continuation or reversal.
The presence of multiple liquidity zones suggests areas where price might seek liquidity, influencing future price movements.
Gold Price Explosion? Key Patterns Indicating Major Moves Ahead!Technical Breakdown of XAUUSD
Overview
The chart presents the price action of Gold Spot (XAUUSD). Key technical patterns and significant support/resistance levels are highlighted to provide insights into potential price movements.
Key Patterns and Levels
Descending Channel:
The price previously moved within a descending channel, marked by lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL), indicating a downtrend.
The breakout from the descending channel suggests a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Support/Resistance Levels:
HTF (Higher Time Frame) Support/Resistance: A crucial level providing a foundation for significant price movements, shown with blue lines.
LTF (Lower Time Frame) Support/Resistance: A lower time frame level within the channel, highlighting short-term price actions.
1HR Double Top: A resistance level around 2458.3 where the price is currently facing a decision point.
Bullish Patterns:
3 Touch Flag: A bullish flag pattern with three touches indicating potential continuation if the price breaks above the resistance.
Daily Bull Flag: A larger time frame bull flag pattern suggests a bullish continuation if the price breaks above the upper boundary.
Liquidity Zones:
Weekly LQZ: A liquidity zone around 2484, which acts as a significant resistance level.
Daily LQZ: A zone around 2348.8 providing a major support level.
Current Market Conditions:
The price is currently testing the 1HR double top resistance. A rejection at this level could indicate a potential short position, while a clear break above could confirm a long position.
Trading Strategy:
Wait for Confirmation: Traders should wait for a clear rejection or break above the 1HR double top to determine the direction of their positions.
Monitor Key Levels: Keep an eye on the support/resistance levels and liquidity zones to gauge potential price movements and market sentiment.
Conclusion:
Gold is at a critical juncture with significant patterns indicating possible major moves ahead. Traders should closely monitor the 1HR double top and key support/resistance levels to make informed trading decisions.
This Simple Error Cost Me Big on XAUUSD! Learn From My Mistakes!Key Levels and Zones
Highs and Lows:
HH (Higher High) and LH (Lower High) are marked on the chart.
The chart shows a recent HH and LH indicating a bullish trend with a potential pullback.
Liquidity Zones (LQZ):
4HR LQZ at 2474.891: This zone might act as a significant resistance level.
4HR LQZ at 2432.126 - 2432.046: This zone was previously a resistance level that may now act as support.
4HR LQZ at 2348.453: Another support zone lower on the chart.
Daily Bull Flag:
A daily bull flag is drawn, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish trend if the price breaks out upwards.
Trading Plan
Identify Key Zones:
Mark key support and resistance levels on your trading platform.
Wait for Confirmation:
Look for confirmation signals (candlestick patterns, volume spikes) before entering a trade.
Set Alerts:
Use trading alerts to get notified when the price reaches key levels.
Risk Management:
Always use a stop loss to protect your capital.
Ensure your risk-reward ratio is at least 1:2.
Review and Adjust:
Regularly review your trades and adjust your strategy based on market conditions.
Gold's Next Big Move: Is This the Reversal Point?4-Hour Chart Analysis
Trend Identification:
Higher Highs (HH): The chart shows a consistent formation of higher highs (HH) which indicates an overall uptrend.
Higher Lows (HL): The chart also demonstrates higher lows (HL), further confirming the uptrend.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
Around 2,480 and above are marked by HH.
Support Levels:
2,429.42 (1HR LQZ / Reversal Point)
2,391.39 (4HR LQZ / TP 1)
2,349.05 (TP 2)
2,288.09 (TP 3)
2,265.37 (TP 4)
Price Action:
Triangle Pattern: A triangle pattern formed in June indicating consolidation before a breakout.
Current Movement: The price has moved up to a higher high but is currently in a retracement phase, testing the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point around 2,429.42.
Projection:
Potential Reversal: If the price holds above the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point, it may indicate a reversal back towards the higher levels around 2,480.
Support Tests: Failure to hold may lead to testing lower support levels at 2,391.39 (4HR LQZ / TP 1) and potentially further down to TP 2, TP 3, and TP 4.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
Detailed View:
Provides a closer look at the recent price movements.
Confirms the higher highs observed in the 4-hour chart.
Key Observations:
Recent High: The price recently reached a new high around 2,480 before retracing.
Immediate Support: The price is testing the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point around 2,429.42, aligning with the 4-hour chart observations.
Trading Opportunities:
Long Position: If the price shows strong bullish signals and holds above the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point.
Short Position: If the price breaks below the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point, with targets at lower support levels identified in the 4-hour chart.
Summary
The charts indicate an overall uptrend with recent higher highs and higher lows.
Current price action is in a retracement phase, testing key support levels.
Monitoring the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point will be crucial for determining the next move, whether it will resume the uptrend or test further support levels.
If you need further analysis or specific trade recommendations, feel free to ask!
Unlock the Secrets: Is GOLD the Ultimate Trade Today?Unlock the Secrets: Is GOLD the Ultimate Trade Today?
In this episode, I dive into the current conditions of the gold market, providing a comprehensive breakdown on how to form an objective opinion. Drawing inspiration from "Market Wizards" and "Trading in the Zone," I share insights from legendary traders who emphasize the importance of patience and discipline in trading.
Learn essential lessons on patience, understanding that you don't need to force trades or impose your personal bias on the market. Discover why it's perfectly fine to skip trades daily or even weekly if the market doesn't align with your setup. Mark Douglas, in "Trading in the Zone," highlights the significance of a trader's mindset and how maintaining an objective perspective is crucial for consistent success.
I also share valuable advice on productive activities to engage in while waiting for the right trade opportunities. Just as the great traders in "Market Wizards" stress, sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. Use this time to refine your strategies, study market patterns, and enhance your trading skills.
Remember, running in place won't get you anywhere—focus on strategic moves to elevate your trading game. By incorporating these principles and understanding the psychological aspects of trading, you'll be better equipped to navigate the complexities of the gold market.
Binance Coin - The $70.000 price target is real!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Binance Coin .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 Binance Coin created a decent bullish break and retest of a horizontal structure which was followed by a rally of 10.000% towards the upside. After this rally, which ended in April of 2021, Binance Coin has been trading sideways ever since. Currently it seems like Binance Coin is preparing another bullish breakout, which could lead us all the way up to $70.000 in the future!
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)