DAX: Bullish but pull back inside the Channel possible.DAX is technically bullish 1D (RSI = 63.054, MACD = 197.400, ADX = 59.303) but neutral on 4H as it broke below the 4H MA50. In a repeat of December 5th, we may see a strong pull back targeted at the 4H MA200, so be ready to sell below S1 with TP = 14,600.
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Frankfurt
DAX: Bullish after breaking the 4H MA200DAX easily broke above the 4H MA200 (14,248.20) yesterday, which as I've mentioned in the past 2 weeks is the most crucial level on the medium-term, and the trend shifted back to bullish again long-term. This is evident also on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 58.733, MACD = 21.600, ADX = 18.725), whose RSI turned bullish for the first time since December 14th. This is all a result of holding the 1D MA50 (14,052.30) as a Support and the Golden Cross 4 weeks ago.
As mentioned previously, the 4H MA200 break would be a buy break-out for me and now I am targeting 14,700, which is just below the June 6th High of 14,710. Technically the 4H MA50 (14,017.50) should now act as a Support/ buy entry. My attention fundamentally is on the FOMC Meeting Minutes today and more importantly the Non-farm Payrolls on Friday. All prices mentioned on my analysis are on DAX futures current contract in front.
DAX: Still in an Ascending Triangle. Opportunities both ways.DAX couldn't have given us a better trade yesterday as following the lower than expected U.S. CPI (which is a big plus in the ongoing battle to control inflation), the price broke above the 4H MA50 (14,376.70) and came close to the 14,710 (June 6th 2022 High) Resistance, getting rejected at 14,670, which is a Higher High since November 14th.
The price is now back down to the 4H MA50 and it remains to be seen if it acts as a Support. With 4H neutral again (RSI = 52.784, MACD = 16.600, ADX = 23.724) but especially ahead of today's critical Fed Rate Decision, the price can swing both ways and even more so violently. The 4H MA200 is at 14,103.20 now, and will be my buy entry but if we close the day below 14,100 I will book the loss and instead sell, targeting the 1D MA50 (13,646.70 and rising rapidly), which is the ultimate Support during long-term uptrends.
If however the price breaks above 14,710 first, I will take the break-out buy and target the 14,940 (March 29 2022 High) Resistance.
Previous DAX chart:
DAX Big MA200 hit but needs +14000 to avoid new selloffBig bullish news for DAX yesterday as it hit the 1D MA200 for the first time since February 2nd. Even though it has also broken above the Lower High Resistance of the Bear Market since October 27th, there is one pattern remaining which if repeated, can cause a new selloff.
That is the April Cup pattern which after it failed to break its Resistance, it caused a massive selloff. The level for DAX to beat in order to cancel this is 14000, which just so happens to be near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Otherwise we can visit the September low again where the 1W MA500 will be waiting. The weekly RSI can offer a fair estimate of what could happen next, bullish above its Higher Highs Resistance and bearish below it.
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GER40 midterm outlook The German benchmark index should not have reached its low yet. I expect that the downward trend should find its end in the area between 11044 and 11449 and from here, at least for the moment, a strong correction should begin, if not new record highs could be reached from here.
DAX Fractal from 2017 hints to one last HighThis is a fractal comparison for DAX on the 1W time-frame. As shown on the chart, the Channel Up since the October 2020 low has many similarities with the Channel Up since the June 2016 low. They both started after a recovery of the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and continued posting Higher Highs for as long as the 1W MA50 was supporting. In 2017 the final peak came in October (one marginal break and rejection in Jan 2018) and then the index corrected back below the 1W MA50, even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the Fib extensions, the 3.0 level should hold (even with a marginal break below) it and push the index for that last High on the 5.0 level at 16700. Even their RSI sequences seem fairly symmetrical.
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DAX Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA300 (yellow trend-line) Buy Zone. This has initiated a rebound twice within the Channel Up. Also the RSI is on its 4 month Support Zone and the MACD close to it.
Target: 15500 (Resistance) and 16200 (Higher High) in extension.
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DAX High alertPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the MACD is flatlined and could repeat the September 2020 sequence.
Target: The 1D MA50.
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DAX: Channel Up with the 4H MA50 supporting.DAX has been trading within a wide Rising Wedge but since the July 31st low, the index has entered into a smaller Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 53.592, MACD = 30.100, ADX = 25.048). As long as the 4H MA50 supports, the pattern resembles the July Channel Up that topped on the 13,300 High.
We are expecting a typucal +4.70% leg towards 13,300 - 13,400 which is our Target Zone.
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DAX: Channel Up making a bottom.DAX is trading within a Channel Up on the 4H chart (RSI = 36.715, MACD = -1.100, ADX = 34.094) since lat June. Following the Higher High at 13,300, the index pulled back to make contact with the 4H MA50 (blue line), which last time (July 10th) provided a rebound. We expect a similar pattern but if it fails we are prepared to close the position and turn into selling towards the 12,400 Support, where the price can contact the 4H MA200 (orange line) for the first time since May 14th.
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DAX: Potential for 12,500 if the Channel Up breaks.DAX has been trading within a 1D Channel Up (RSI = 49.754, MACD = 14.200, ADX = 21.600, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since the August 15th, 2019 bottom. This Channel Up is however very close to breaking to the downside, having also already crossed the 1D MA50 (blue line).
Last time a 1D Channel Up crossed the MA50 and broke to the downside was in late May 2019 when the price broke downwards after posting Lower Highs and didn't find Support until the 1D MA200 (orange line). If you look also on the RSI action of the two sequences will you see how similar they are.
As a result if DAX breaks and closes below the current Channel Up, we are expecting a test of the MA200 around 12,500.
*Note that this bearish divergence has been noticeable since early/ mid December after that Megaphone on the 4H chart was spotted. So far it has been trading as expected:
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DAX: Sell opportunity within the Megaphone.DAX has been trading within a 1D Megaphone pattern (RSI = 55.442, MACD = 76.600, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since November 6th. This week the price was rejected on the Higher High zone and is still on the decline towards the 13,176 Pivot line which is also where the MA50 on the 4H chart is. This is a possible Support level.
If this level breaks however, we are expecting a full decline sequence towards (possibly) a new Lower Low. The 4H chart also provides a strong sell signal with the bearish cross on the MACD. If the pivot is crossed our Target Zone is 12,950 - 12,885.
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DAX: Sell opportunity on 1D.The index is still on a long term recovery within the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 58.547, MACD = 106.300, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This time however 4H is on a Lower High sequence with 11,400 supporting this fragile set up. With the price already rejected just below the 11,686 - 11,838 1W Resistance Zone, we are expecting a stronger correction if 11,400 breaks. TP1 = 11,250, TP2 = 11,000.
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DAX 30 - Current consolidation analyzedFollowing the breakout of the channel at the beginning of December, the upward impulsion seems now to be over and a consolidation period has started since the end of 2016.
An important divergence exists between the recent uptrend of the price and 3 indicators (MACD, Momentum and RSI). The most valuable one being the RSI being clearly now in a downward configuration with a break of a support and creation of new lows.
This is very much a short term signal, as this divergence is not visible on the weekly data.
- Short term holders would keep their positions unless price goes below the current support at 11,484
- Mid to long term holders have no reason at this stage to cut their position
- In case of a break below the 11,484, the index could retrace down to around 10,897 (61.8% of the current impulsion)
- A break above 11,695 would create a new high and be a buy signal, cancelling out the divergence observed