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GBP-EUR

Euro Strength vs British Pound WeaknessGood morning traders, the London session is well under way now and we have an excellent opportunity to go long on the EUR/GPB as we see the pair breakout to the upside. In the background we see all GBP pairs falling and all EUR pairs rising in price - here's a breakdown of each pair since the start of the London session. EUR Pairs: EURUSD +0.19% EURGBP +0.37% EURJPY -0.01% EURCHF +0.07% EURCAD +0.23% EURAUD +0.21% EURNZD +0.07% GBP Pairs: GBPUSD -0.17% GBPNZD -0.30% GBPCAD -0.13% GBPAUD -0.16% GBPCHF -0.29% GBPJPY -0.38% EURGBP +0.36% I hope you have a successful day trading - don't forget to follow me to see my currency strength analysis in your feeds. Good luck!
Long
by FXLukas
EURGBP: Anticipating On A Strong Pound In The FutureWelcome traders around the world to this new trading idea! We are looking at the EURGBP pair today and looking for short positions on this pair. The two horizontal black lines do mark a daily gap, which was filled with the latest price moves. Price did form a new peak high during this uptrend and we want price to do a nice top before its breaks down. Trend line is already broken but this has not that much value as price action is my preferred tool. Also in our favor we can see that other GBP/XXX pairs, which have been weak lately are recovering. So correlation indicates that EURGBP will be bearish with a strong Pound in the future. Lets see how this works out and wishing everyone a successful trading week!
Short
by darian_fx
GBPEUR: scenario for a hard BREXITI'm not really interested in currency due to being pretty boring markets more than anything, but it is a necessary evil in our world. GBP is interesting for me being British and also because of its long market history spanning many centuries. It's story has been one of decline for many, many years now as the Americans took over what remained of the British Empire. The creation of the EU and Euro (both of which the UK has strenuously tried to undermine since their inception) will be the final nail in the coffin imo. But I am a transnationalist at heart. Europe & BREXIT The European project, in its present form, dates back to the 1957 Treaty of Rome in which the European Economic Community (EEC) was born. Britain was not party to the treaty, nor was it welcome, at least not by the leading founder France. From their point of view, the goal was always a strong union, i.e. political, military and economic. As many will agree, the history of Central Europe has always been dominated by the struggle between the Germans and their neighbours. The Second World War was yet another deeply tragic cycle in this terrible dance. But the ambitions of Germany's neighbours, not least France, have likewise come at the cost of others (not least Germany: France strongly opposed German reunification for example). It seems Europe is a zero sum game and post-war circumstances meant that Paris could once again take the lead in shaping the New Europe according to its Gallic vision. However that vision did not include the old enemy Britain, whose role in European history was always to defend its position at the periphery and to muddy the waters of Continental ascendancy as much as possible ( perfidious Albion ). They were right of course! Since joining in 1973 (only after the ousting of de Gaulle), Britain has done little but derail those early French ambitions with successive Prime Ministers and opinion-makers opposing European integration measures and treaties. On top of this, the German Miracle shifted the focus from Paris to Berlin in the 1990s. The German's, clever as ever, understood the benefit of the Euro for the export markets (which also conveniently also allowed their trading partners in Europe access to cheap credit). They also knew that they were on the cusp of greatness once again as the Wall came down and those markets to the east became accessible. Today, it seems, it is the Germans that have the most to lose from European disunity, yet we notice the most vocal detractor of Britain in the BREXIT-era is France's new centre-right leader, Emmanuel Macron. For the Gaullist elite, BREXIT (and the harder the better) is a godsend; the Germans, whose greatest leader ever is about to retire (and believe me, there is as yet no other figure that can unify such a bipolar country), will not oppose greater political and military integration so long as they can still have a guiding hand at the top and, more importantly, keep control of the economic union. From this perspective, I believe that certain European factions that uphold the original de Gaullist agenda would like to see the back of the United Kingdom in the form of a hard BREXIT. At the same time, Germany and its allies would much rather see, at most, a soft BREXIT based on maintenance of the European Economic Area (EEA). Unfortunately, this latter position is roundly rejected by British Eurosceptics and lies at the heart of the problem. Therefore, in my opinion, there is no deal which will satisfy all parties! If a soft BREXIT is forced, it will be a fudge and contrary to the spirit of the original 2016 referendum result. Let us therefore assume for now that a hard BREXIT is on the cards. What does the chart say! How much room is there for the market makers to crash this market? But this is just another alarmist scenario! Normally I would say, yes. But do not underestimate the historical significance of a hard BREXIT. This will give the market makers the once in a lifetime opportunity to push the GBPEUR pair to historic lows and test the strength of the Euro over the pound. Also remember the Euro is the dominant currency in the Dollar Index basket and remember it constitutes China's second largest foreign reserve holdings. The one fundamental weakness of a Europe-with-a-strong-Germany is that it is at heart fundamentally weak: historic cycles dictate that a strong Germany is most often followed by a weak Germany. Despite what popular 'alt'-media would you like to believe, Germany (which is a very disunited country in terms of both religious (catholic/evangelic split) and regional culture) has boomed in the last two decades not least due to the uniting effect of one Angela Merkel - possibly the greatest German Chancellor ever - who united East and West, South and North, city and country. And she is leaving office... It is a watershed moment, and as usual nothing is certain.
by RealMcafee
6
EUR/GBP TRENDLINE BREAK GOING TO RETEST !!!TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: *-Price broke through the trendline and possibly will retest it. *-On lower timeframe we see price is making lower lows and lower highs. *-The retest of the trendline fits perfectly with fibonacci retracements. *-If this setup is executed I'm place my stop loss just above the resistance zone in case I'm wrong on this. *-My take profit will be on the 0.859 support level but you can take profits on the -27.00% fibonacci retracement. *-Might be waiting to see some candlestick reversal patterns before jumping on this trade #Tradesafe
Short
by theforexdaddy
GBPEUR Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A ReversalGBPEUR is approaching its resistance at 1.1722 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.1572 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by Klimex
An update to EURGBP for BOENow is a good time for a quick chart update ahead of the BOE and Brexit countdown. PM May playing politics with a "Queens Gambit"….by asking for the short-extension till the end of June she is trying to force MPs hands to vote for her deal... Options from the EU are still either for (short) Mid-May or (long) lasting into 2020. The risk scenario which will send Pound flying down across the FX board is that the EU reject an extension. We are tracking the same flows towards the top of the range here, and confidence is increasing after the break yesterday. The damage is almost done technically, a rally through current levels will leave us past the point of no return. The first targets cleared and now 0.8841 remains the second target which is in play as early as this week. Well done everyone riding this one from the lows, it's not the time to start adding longs if you are not already positioned. Best of luck!
Long
by ridethepig
11
Traders await high impacting US economic data and key Brexit votGDP AND CPI During the upcoming trading week the United States economy is heavily in focus, with the world’s largest economy releasing a slew of high impacting data points, including Retail Sales, CPI, PPI, Durable Goods, Housing and Consumer Confidence data. The British pound is likely to remain volatile this week as we see another key Brexit vote in UK Parliament, with British Prime Minister Theresa May attempting to push through her meaningful Brexit bill. If British PM May fails to pass her deal, UK lawmakers will have the option on whether or not extend the United Kingdom’s departure date from the European Union. This week we also see an important interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan, with the BOJ widely tipped to rates on hold and talk up global risks. Other key events on the economic docket this week include Chinese Industrial Production data, EU inflation figures and United Kingdom GDP and Trade data. Monday 11th March, USD United States Retail Sales US Retail Sales is released by the United States Census Bureau and measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level over a stated time period. This figure represents an indicator of consumer spending inside the United States economy. Higher retail sales figures generally indicate stronger consumer spending, which is vital for US GDP and economic growth. • The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 111.00 level, further gains towards 112.20 and 113.00 levels would then seems possible. • If the USDJPY pair trades below the 111.00 level, sellers may test towards the 110.65 and 110.00 support levels. Tuesday 12th March, USD US Consumer Price Index The US Consumer Price Index is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and evaluates the fluctuations in the cost of living by measuring the changes in prices consumers pay for a set of items. In terms of an inflation measurement, the Consumer Price Index is the most obvious way to quantify fluctuations in purchasing power, although the Federal Reserve relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary means to determine whether inflation is occurring. • The USDCHF pair is bullish while trading above the 1.0010 level, key resistance is found at the 1.0090 and 1.0150 levels. • If the USDCHF pair moves below the 1.0010 level, sellers will likely test towards the 0.9950 and 0.9890 support levels. Wednesday 13th March, USD United States PPI The Producer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Labor measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for US goods and services and tracks how prices feed through the production process. PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices. It also gives an image of how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product. • The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3100 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3200 and 1.3350 levels. • If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3100 level, key support is found at the 1.2970 and 1.2840 levels. Thursday 14th March, CNY Chinese Industrial Production The Chinese Industrial Production Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and is an economic indicator that measures changes in output for the manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Industrial Production figures are also used by central banks to measure inflation, especially inside nations that heavily rely on industrial manufacturing and raw material exportation. • The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7080 level, key support is found at the 0.7000 and 0.6930 levels. • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.7080 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7130 and 0.7180 resistance levels. Friday 15th March, EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index The eurozone Consumer Price Index, released by Eurostat measures the changes in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. A higher value of the CPI represents significant inflationary pressures in the eurozone economies and also puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. CPI data may not affect the markets significantly because CPI is the European Central Bank's mandated inflation target. • The EURUSD pair bearish while trading below the 1.1300 level, key support is found at the 1.1170 and 1.1120 levels. • If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1300 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.1330 and 1.1360 resistance levels.
by OctaFX_Official
FOMC minutes and manufacturing data headline the economic docketMinutes and Manufacturing The release of FOMC meeting minutes headlines the economic calendar this week alongside the release of key PMI Manufacturing data from the eurozone economy. Market participants will be looking closely at the language used by US policymakers inside of the FOMC meeting minutes, especially any overly dovish or hawkish comments. Investors will also be focused on manufacturing activity inside the eurozone economy this week, especially the French and German PMI Manufacturing readings. This week we also see the release of the European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of Australian meeting minutes and key monthly employment and unemployment data from the Australian economy. The United Kingdom economy also releases wage, employment and housing data for the month of January. Monday 18th February, GBP UK House Price Index The Rightmove House Price Index provides a sample of monthly and annual residential property prices in the United Kingdom economy. The index provides a strong indication of the current strength of the UK housing market, with house prices generally considered vital to the overall health of the United Kingdom economy. The UK House Price Index has recently been trending lower due to nervousness from households over Brexit uncertainty. • The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2900 level, key support is found at the 1.2830 and 1.2790 levels. • If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.2900 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.2990 and 1.3095 resistance levels. Tuesday 19th February, AUD RBA Meeting Minutes The Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are published two weeks after the actual RBA interest rate decision. The RBA Meeting Minutes give a full account of the RBA policy discussion, including factors that influenced policy makers decision and differences of view amongst RBA members. • The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.7280 level, key technical support is found at the 0.7150 and 0.7080 levels. • If the AUDUSD pair trades above the 0.7280 level, buyers will likely test towards the 0.7340 and 0.7450 levels. Wednesday 20th February, USD FOMC Meeting Minutes The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes gives some of the best insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision-making process, and how the Federal Reserve currently thinks about economic developments inside and outside of the United States economy. The FOMC organize eight meetings in a year to give a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy. • The USDCHF pair is bullish while trading above the 0.9990 level, key resistance is found at the 1.0050 and 1.0100 levels. • If the USDCHF pair trades below the 0.9990 level, sellers may test towards the 0.9910 and 0.9845 support levels. Thursday 21st February, EUR ECB Policy Meeting Minutes The European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Account details the latest meeting of the ECB Board, providing valuable indications and in-depth insights into the current conditions of the eurozone economy. The ECB Policy Meeting Minutes can influence the direction of the euro currency, especially if a new policy change is being discussed or the policy language is perceived to be overly bearish or bullish. • The EURGBP pair is bearish while trading above the 0.8845 level, further losses towards 0.8710 and 0.8580 levels seems likely. • If the EURGBP pair moves above the 0.8845 level, buyers may test towards the 0.8890 and 0.8950 resistance levels. Friday 22nd February, CAD Canadian Retail Sales Canadian Retail Sales is released by Statistics Canada and measures the overall change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. The figure represents a measure of consumption and consumer confidence in the Canadian economy, as retail trade is a leading indicator for the overall health of the Canadian economy and impact on how the Bank of Canada few the current outlook of the domestic economy. • The USDCAD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3290 level, further losses towards the 1.3220 and 1.3100 levels remains possible. • If the USDCAD pair trades above the 1.3290 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 1.3388 and 1.3455 resistance levels.
by OctaFX_Official
The greenback and kiwi outperform in the foreign exchange marketEuro breaks support The euro currency came under heavy selling pressure this week, with single currency falling to a fresh 2019 trading low against the US dollar as the greenback strengthened broadly and EU economic data continued to worsen. Weaker than expected monthly eurozone Industrial Production data and softer German fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers pushed the EURUSD pair closer to the 1.1200 level. The euro had also come under increasing pressure from the greenback, as the US dollar outperformed all major currencies this week. The euro was also hurt, as investors fear the United Kingdom’s upcoming departure from the European Union and the effects it may have on the already weakened eurozone economy. • The EURUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.1260 level, key support is found at the 1.1200 and 1.1180 levels. • If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1260 level, further upside towards the 1.1360 and 1.1410 levels remains possible. RBNZ less dovish The New Zealand dollar moved sharply higher this week after RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr sounded less dovish than most market participants had been expecting. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained rates at 1.75 per cent as widely expected, but sounded more bullish towards the New Zealand economy than markets had been expecting. The Reserve Bank said they did not plan to cut rates any time soon and expected a rate increase sometime during 2020. The NZDUSD pair raced higher on the more dovish statement, with the kiwi soaring above the 0.6800 level. • The NZDUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 0.6740 level, key resistance is found at the 0.6900 and 0.7040 levels. • If the NZDUSD pair trades below the 0.6740 level, sellers may test towards the 0.6680 and 0.6580 resistance levels. UK data disappoints The British pound remained under pressure against the greenback this week after the United Kingdom posted weaker than expected GDP and CPI inflation data. Monthly UK GDP contracted -0.4 per cent month-on-month, while fourth-quarter UK GDP expanded just 0.2 per cent, missing the 0.6 per cent forecast from most economists. UK CPI also tumbled -0.8 per cent during the first month of 2019, as Brexit uncertainty continued to hurt consumer prices alongside the recent drop in oil prices. The GBPUSD pair fell below the 1.2800 level and was weakened further by a renewed bid-tone in the US dollar. • The GBPUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2930 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3095 and 1.3205 levels. • If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.2930 level, sellers may test towards the 1.2740 and 1.2660 levels. Oil boosted Oil prices received a strong boost this week as Saudi Arabia cut oil production levels more than analysts had been expecting, while rising optimism over Sino-US trade talks also helped support oil prices. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia cut production by more than 500,000 barrels more than expected, sending Brent crude and WTI oil prices sharply higher on the week. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil producer, cutting oil production usually helps to drive oil price higher due to the nations strong grip on the international oil market. Hopes that Sino-US trade talks would be extended past the March 1st truce deadline also helped to support commodity prices this week. • WTI Oil is only bullish while trading above the $55.00 level, key resistance is found at the $57.50 and $60.00 level. • If WTI Oil declines below the $53.50 level, sellers may test towards the $52.00 and $50.00 support levels.
NYMEX:CL1!
by OctaFX_Official
GBP/USD — Fast Approaching A Selling AreaIf you, like me, believe that the Sterling cannot possibly justify a break outside its macro range, which now I perceive to be between 1.28 and 1.25, until the Brexit situation clears up, then you’d probably agree that the Sterling is fast approaching an area of high interest to be a seller on strength. I’ve drawn the POC (Point of Control) that represents the highest accumulation of volume through Oct/Nov to highlight how stiff this resistance should become for a currency that keeps surging as a function of USD weakness and vague hope that the anticipated defeat of the UK May’s Brexit deal as part of the meaningful vote may lead to a second referendum vote or a general election being called as the next step. Hard to see any risk-reward to be a high timeframe buyer here unless you really are betting for a breakout of the EURUSD range or 2nd referendum.
by FlowState