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GBP-EUR

Dollar, get ahold of yourself!So greenback short players finally reached for the level of 92.50, staging breakthrough of 1.19 on EURUSD. In our view these moves are a signs of dollar bottoming out as investors adjust their portfolio with fine-entered greenback longs as the updates on US economy is slowly but surely beginning to improve. The US consumer pleased us with increased expenditures, the consumer sentiments index from the University of Michigan remained steady at healthy levels, indicating American people are confidently looking to the future. More importantly, a comment was made by Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who optimistically looked at the recent slowdown in inflation, noting the temporary nature of the factors in effect. She said, the economy may need more employment to impetus prices, with unemployment somewhere at 4.75%, downgrading from past estimate of 5%. Such a view from the Fed official brings back NFP to the game. If the report demonstrates strengthening of the labor market (ie, job growth roughly in line with the forecast, reduced unemployment), one can expect that the chances of a December rate increase will grow. But the report should be unambiguously positive, so that the Fed has a reason to spin off the story about the transitory weakness of inflation. Taking into account that unemployment in June moved from pre-crisis lows, rising by 0.1% to 4.4%, unemployment benefits were not surprising, and ADP report yesterday came out worse than expected, it is difficult to expect from NFP a pleasant surprise. And if the report disappoints, then the calm that the dollar enjoyed at the beginning of this week is likely to change to the next wave of selloff with the next target around 90.00. The dynamics of gold also speaks in favor of the bullish correction of the dollar. Having ceased to torture the defenders of the two-month high at around $ 1270, the market has retreated and is waiting for statistics on the labor market in the US, hoping that the report will allow the Fed to adjust its views, and hence the future yield of the "yellow asset". Now for today's meeting of the Bank of England. Turbulence in the UK financial markets has diminished significantly - pound volatility has fallen, credit spreads as a measure of risk have also declined, the stock market is growing thanks to the exporters. Progress on Brexit goes in parallel with the dynamics of the market, not affecting it in any way. Markit's report on production and the service sector came out today, activity in both sectors in June expanded faster than expected. For the Bank of England, the main problem remained growing inflation, but it seems to disappear by itself with the stabilization of the pound. In the last month, it has slowed and now officials need not rush to raise rates as the Brexit has not really started yet, the country will have a lot of changes it has to withstand, and the transition should be smoothed with the soft credit policies. It is obvious that with the current stimulation, the British economy will strengthen its positions, which is logical to cause the strengthening of the pound, the stabilization of inflation. But do not underestimate the uncertainty associated with Brexit. It will still remind you of itself and as a risk factor it will be a stone on the neck of the sterling trying to not sink. Today, one should not expect a significant pound movement, since for the most part the CB meeting has already been priced in, but the NFP's tomorrow report will definitely give a signal to action. And a comment on the Australian dollar. As noted in the note on Tuesday, investors probably will not play against the RBA, which complained to the revaluation of the pound in its press release after the interest rate meeting. Just in time, the weak trade balance has been released, which allowed the Australian currency to continue correction today.
Long
by Tickmill
EURGBP Long Term BearishTake note that this is based on the weekly and monthly time frame, so that smaller time frames can still move up Time for a long term view on EURGBP on the weekly and monthly time frame. Whats very interesting about these time frames is that both shows a bearish wedge and are close to a resistance. Besides that the monthly also shows a possible double top. This double top will be confirmed if august closes red... So basically for a full sell signal you would have to wait till the monthly candle of august closes. Personally I lack the patience for it, if the same counts for you then just start with building up a small short positions. This way you will have plenty of margin to add more if it goes a bit up first and ofcourse to add more when it goes down. A safe stop would be at 0,9080 or 0,9120. Now this will look like a big stop loss of 100+ pips but remember that the higher you go in time frames the bigger the trading range. So automatically this also gives you a big stop loss. On the other side it also gives you a big take profit target :) The daily time frame show 0.8990 as stop. Take profit targets are 0,8780 and 0.8480 after that. So plenty of cash to be made if you have the patience to hold on the next months
Short
by JoshFX1
2
EURGBP Sell And Then Buy The Dip!On the 4 hour time frame for EURGBP we can see a very nice Elliot Wave structure. Currently we are in the 4th wave of a bullish Elliot structure. Its most likely that this wave down will approach the lower range before bouncing back up into its final 5th wave. On Stoch we also have a nice bearish crossover and the ADX shows a bearish claw. Supporting a down move towards the lower range which will get hit around 0.8880. Trading advice: Short with target of 0,8880. At this price take profit and enter your 1st buy position to catch the 5th wave with a target of 0.92 > 0.96
by JoshFX1