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GBP-EUR

GBP/EUR Long - Bullish ChannelThis is a good opportunity for an entry to go long. GBP/EUR is currently ranging in a bullish channel, price is currently at the low of the channel and so far has failed to breakthrough. Stops can be placed just below the trendline and targets are at the high of the channel. Resistance may be found at the bearish trendline that is forming within the channel (as shown). However, if this is broken we can expect price to reach the top of the channel.
Long
by LeeThompson97
GBP/EUR Short at Channel ResistanceWe are approaching the top of an upward channel, this key area of resistance is a good area for a sell opportunity. This is supported by divergence, that suggests that the next peak will be lower than the last - which would fall at the top of the trend line. Before placing a trade wait until the candle closes, if the candle closes outside of the trend line the set up is invalid. Finally, this upward trend has a bias to break to the upside, so this opportunity needs to be considered thoroughly.
Short
by LeeThompson97
EURGBP ShortI see two options for the EURGBP: 1) A Flat correction and 2) A Triangle Minor wave 3 is complete thus minor wave 4 is underway. Wave 4 being a countertrend move will prove to have two options as listed above. I prefer to always think that the Flat will form but keeping my eye open for the potential reversal at the 0.618 level signaling a Triangle formation. In my humble opinion, the flat should travel to approximately the 0.8400 level and if a triangle is forming it should reverse somewhere around the 0.8640 level. Please forgive my wordy thoughts. Hope this idea works out better then my first one. DISCLAIMER: This is not a trade call for others to follow, trade according to your trading plan.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn385859
BOJ: JPY V USD, EUR, GBP - WHAT THE OPTION MARKET IS TELLING US50 Delta ATM Volatilities: USDJPY - - $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m - Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event vol fades. GBPJPY - - £Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 58.66%mrkt 25.93%1wk 23.02%2wk 18.30%1m - The same can be said about sterling yens ATM curve, adding that it is steeper accross the tenors as the recently heightened GBP risk/ BOE event vol is priced into the 1wks and 2wks greater relatively vs $yen, with 1ms also outperforming $Yen as the perceived GBP risk/ vol post-brexit carries higher vs the USD. EURJPY - - EUROYEN has an ATM implied volatility curve of 49.42%mrkt 22.82%1wk 18.03%2wk 14.23%1m - EUROYEN mirrors $yen from 1wk-1m as the term structure is very similar for eur vs usd (no significant event vol expected). Though we see a notable 6-7vol divergence in the current vol which is expected as $Yen expressions are favourable for BOJ out-performance positionings (USD a firmer based/ more widely traded) and £Yen are favourable for BOJ under-performance structures as BOE next week compunds the attractiveness in the downside of the cross (BOE likely to ease) which in turn increases the demand for £Yen expression on a BOJ no-show. 25Delta Risk Reversals (25d call vol minus 25d put vol - examines the relative demand) USDJPY - - $Yen RRs are +3 mrkt, +0.62 1wk, -0.67 2wk, -0.81m - Interestingly we are seeing a moderate $Yen topside coverage in the front end (e.g. current and 1wks) implying the market is hedging/ positioning for a BOJ Out-performance Surprise (call demand > Put). The RRs are quite small at +1 so i wouldnt say there is a huge consensus on BOJ HIT expectations. Nonetheless calls are likely being purchased to hedge underlying spot short positions in the near term as any $yen/ BOJ topside is expected to not last long and be faded aggressively - which explains the switch to negative RRs after the BOJ/ MOF events have passed. GBPJPY - - £Yen RRs are -6 mrkt, -3 1wk, -1.3 2wk, -2.2 1m - Understandably SterlingYen has a different RR structure as BOJ and BOE predispositions are priced into option structures, rather than just BOJ (as is the case for £yen and euroyen) - so we see a strong put bias, particularly in the front end (current and 1wks) as these cover the BOE and BOJ event vol. Unlike $Yen we see there is a clear trend for BOJ miss/ downside speculation as it is the logical chosen proxy, as a BOJ miss is highly likely to then be compounded over the current and 1wk terms as BOE hit expectations are priced in, accelerating the GBPJPY to the downside and RRs towards the LHS (BOJ miss = yen strength, BOE hit = Streling weakness - aggressive downside). Also put gbpjpy, automatically hedges any BOJ hit/topside risk as 1wk later the BOE is likely to ease so any yen downside arising from a BOJ hit will likely be smoothed somewhat by BOE easing induced GBP selling; thus lessening the negative impact or even turning the position back into the money.
by QuantumLogicTrading
6
EUR/GBP - WILL UK STAY OR LEAVE?I am staying well out of any trades this week as i am expecting the market to be extremely volatile with the anticipation of the EU referendum. However this is just an idea that it appears traders are taking the position that they expect the UK to stay in the EU as the Euro declines as the GBP grows in strength. Stochastic/MACD/RSI all show a strong correlation that the Euro is declining in value and strength against the pound in anticipation for the EU referendum. Will wait and see how this all plans out on the 23rd June.
by MitchellShoesmith
EUR/GBPVery nice long setup here, - Clear breakout of Daily support turned resistance - Candlestick pull back showing this level will hold to continue to the upside - Overall market trend, and a uptrend daily and 4H - Long term EMA is suggesting that we have alot more upside to come from the previous giving us that added confluence that it's a good Buying position to be taking in this market condition - broke out from two descending trend lines this also suggest that we could be seeing some more bullish upsides potentially HH's Good luck as always DacresFx
Long
by DacresFx