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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]Last week, after opening at 2,738 USD/oz, gold prices increased slightly to 2,749 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,643 USD/oz after Donald Trump announced his re-election as President. America. In the next trading session, gold price recovered to 2,710 USD/oz when the FED announced to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25%. However, the recovery momentum of gold prices was not sustainable, gold prices quickly dropped to 2,680 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,684 USD/oz. The reason why Donald Trump's re-election as US President caused gold prices to plummet is because: First, investors expect that Mr. Trump will be able to intervene soon to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tension on the Korean peninsula,... Because during his first term, Mr. Trump almost did not let any fierce fighting occur. This will reduce the haven role of gold in the eyes of investors. Second, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to impose a 60% tax on goods imported from China and impose a 20% tax on goods imported from other countries. If Mr. Trump carries out this commitment, it will push up the prices of US consumer goods, causing inflationary pressures to return, forcing the FED to raise interest rates, helping the USD increase sharply compared to other major currencies, causing Gold price dropped sharply. Mr. Trump's victory may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term, but this impact may gradually decrease, because Mr. Trump will officially take office early next year. Therefore, US economic data may receive more attention from investors because it directly impacts the prospect of cutting interest rates by the FED. This week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to this week's major events. The main economic news and events to monitor will be CPI, PPI, October retail sales, and US weekly unemployment benefit claims data. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech next Thursday. 📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, the price of gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern, however, confirmation is needed when the 2642 support zone is broken. If this price model is true, the gold price may drop to an area approaching 2,530 USD/oz. In the opposite case, the gold price will still maintain its upward momentum if the price trades above the 2710 threshold, and at the same time breaks through the peak level at 2,790 USD/oz. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2755 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
The downtrend of GOLD is still dominantUnder pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, OANDA:XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery. Although OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold. Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels. In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months. Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0. Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021. These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States. Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential. According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October. China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August. About this week's economic calendar Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions. Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead. Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2725 →Take Profit 1 2714 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2709 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2635 →Take Profit 1 2646 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2651
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM & COPPER Weekly Forecast Nov. 11thThe Metals are at areas of supportive discount arrays, but will they move higher. The latest COT Report indicates the institutional traders are betting on higher prices, even when the assets seem to be in consolidation. Monday is a US bank holiday, and Tuesday may start slow, but I suspect the price action will be clearer come Wednesday. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
NYMEX:PL1!
by RT_Money
GOLD → Fundamental Swing. What to expect from gold?FX:XAUUSD updates the low to 2643. The reason - change of fundamental background and outflow of funds to safer assets... But, Powell supported the metal by lowering the US interest rate.... Overall, the fundamental backdrop for gold has changed to negative. The impact is not short-term and can only increase further, but the metal will be supported by the Chinese market and the Middle East conflict. Yesterday gold strengthened to 2710, testing key resistance on the back of 0.25% interest rate cut. Powell gave a hint that the Feds are generally willing to continue the easing course. The environment is quite interesting... Technically, gold is in a local descending channel and below 0.5 Fibo. If the bears keep the 0.5 - 0.7 fibo zone under their control, gold may continue to weaken towards 2650 - 2600. Resistance levels: 2696, 2714, 2720 Support levels: 2685, 2652 Technically, after a busy week, the metal may go into a consolidation phase, for example in the area of 2714 - 2685, but it is still worth paying attention to resistance and support from which strong moves can be formed... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
FOMC and Powell support GOLD, bearish outlook still prevailsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading rose nearly 2% yesterday when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as market predicted, causing the US Dollar to plunge and giving gold a boost. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, while policymakers noted a "broad deterioration" in the job market. Officials voted unanimously to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Trump's presidential election victory will not directly affect monetary policy. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have put pressure on the US dollar and bond yields, while boosting the investment appeal of non-yielding gold. FOMC content In their monetary policy statement, officials acknowledged the economy is growing steadily despite slowing labor market conditions. They admitted inflation was close to the Fed's 2% target but still remained slightly high. Fed policymakers also noted that the risks to achieving their dual mandates were “roughly balanced” but acknowledged uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement said: "The Committee believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are balanced and that there is uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee concerned about the risk of achieving his dual mandate." While policymakers noted “progress” in achieving the inflation target, they neglected to mention “becoming more confident that inflation can move steadily toward 2 percent.” sustainable”. “Labour market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low,” the Fed statement said. Powell said the election results would not affect decision-making in the short term and that there was flexibility in future policy direction. At his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell avoided giving specific guidance on the future direction of interest rates, leaving room for flexibility at the December meeting and beyond. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. He acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains restrained as officials aim to return interest rates to neutral levels. Regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, Powell said if the labor market weakens or slows as it approaches neutrality, the Fed could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, he clarified that no final decision has been made yet. Powell also said that in the short term, the presidential election results will not directly affect monetary policy. General assessment The Fed's 25 basis point cut boosted gold prices, on the other hand, Powell made very clear statements about the possibility and prospect of cutting interest rates and this is not beneficial for the US Dollar. A very basic knowledge is that the US Dollar is controlled by the Fed and not under the power of the US President. Therefore, even in the event that Trump is elected and boosts the US Dollar, it will still be restrained by the policy of cutting interest rates. Only if Trump can completely eliminate the Fed will the US Dollar have nothing to show for it. prevent. Of course, this is without precedent, nor has any President been able to do this. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has recovered strongly from the 0.618% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the channel, it is still in a downtrend with the price channel as the short-term trend. On the other hand, gold's upward momentum has also been limited by the EMA21 level, and it still has enough bearish conditions when the Relative Strength Index is also showing signs of folding down from the 50 level area. If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the potential to fall a bit further with a short-term target of around 2,684 USD rather than 2,668 USD. However, in case gold moves above the EMA21 level it will tend to increase further to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Therefore, for open selling positions should be protected above EMA21 quite "strictly." During the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,684 – 2,668USD Resistance: 2,700 – 2,710USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2740 →Take Profit 1 2729 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2724 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2678⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2672 →Take Profit 1 2683 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2688
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD established a falling structure after a sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable after yesterday's plunge. The current gold price is about 2,660 USD/ounce. Previously on Wednesday (November 6), after Trump was elected President of the United States, investors rushed to buy US Dollar, OANDA:XAUUSD plummeted to its lowest level in 3 weeks. As sent to readers in many articles about the election of Trump, a shock decline in gold is inevitable because Trump's "steering wheel" will support the Dollar from general economic policies. Trump's victory will boost the dollar as he is expected to propose new tariffs that could cause a spike in inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle. Fed decision upcoming After cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time. The US economic calendar today (Thursday) will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Trump and the Fed Trump's economic policy proposes imposing taxes, increasing the fiscal deficit, and reducing taxes. His economic advice conflicts with the Fed's anti-inflation policy. Therefore, the Fed will be forced to take a very cautious approach when loosening monetary policy. The risk of rising inflation after Trump introduced new taxes could slow the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is very important because Trump and the Fed are becoming opposing, it is likely that Trump will destroy all previous efforts of the Fed to curb inflation. For more than 70 years, the Federal Reserve has operated as an independent government agency in the United States, but this tradition may soon be overturned. After declaring victory on Wednesday (November 6), Donald Trump is preparing to talk about "interest rates" after taking office in January 2025, insisting his intuition is better than the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Powell. For more than 70 years, the US central bank has operated as an independent government agency. When officials meet to decide interest rates, they will not need to consult with the president and other elected officials. That's because, as the former Fed chairman famously said, “The job of the central bank is to get rid of the drinking bowl just as the party is getting started.” In other words, they have to make unpopular decisions that ultimately seek to bring long-term benefits to the economy. However, once President-elect Trump returns to the White House, the independence the Fed has maintained for many years could be compromised. Trump's statement was posted on CNN: “I think the president should at least have a say. I feel very strongly,” Trump said about the Fed's interest rate decision at a press conference in August. Trump added: “I make a lot of money, I'm very successful and I think in many situations I have better abilities than the people at the Fed or the president.” Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After yesterday's strong price drop, gold has all the technical conditions to decrease in price through the price channel. The fact that gold was sold below the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21) caused the bullish price structure to be completely broken. Currently, gold is recovering slightly after receiving support from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and once this level is further broken below, gold tends to continue to decline with a subsequent target level of around 2,600 USD around the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement area. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index continues to point downward after breaking the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for gold as the RSI's next target is 25. Showing that the downward momentum remains quite wide in the front. In the near future, technically, gold has the potential to decrease in price with the price channel being the short-term trend. As long as gold remains in the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the bearish outlook will still be prioritized, and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,640 – 2,645USD Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684 – 2,697USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2706⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2711 →Take Profit 1 2701 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2696 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2633 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
XAUUSD 1day MA50 and Channel bottom tested and held. Strong buy.Gold / XAUUSD hit today the 1day MA50 for the first time since August 5th 2024. This isn't just a 3 month test of the rising supporting trend line but also a test of the bottom of the 5 month Channel Up. The 1day RSI hit and is rebounding on its own 5 month Buy Zone. This is a textbook buy signal on very low risk (Channel Up bottom limit). Buy and target 2840 (+7.50% from the low, a standard bullish leg rise within this Channel Up). Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TheCryptagon
GOLD → U-turn and fall... Waiting for Powell (Fed)FX:XAUUSD is forming a reversal setup with a bias for the medium and long term. The fundamental background is changing in favor of the dollar at the expense of gold, as well as changing the targets... Trump is the new (old) president of the United States. What does that mean? Rising inflation, a rising dollar, stock market and bonds are possible, but not gold or currency markets. But because Trump's policies promise to be tough on China and Europe, gold may get additional support from investors, but not in the near term, perhaps not in the next year. What are the targets to gold going forward? 2400, 2300, 2200. 2K is not excluded. Now all eyes are on the Fed rate meeting later on Thursday. Will they cut 0.25% or keep the rate the same? The important aspect in that case is the regulator's comments and hints (slowing down the easing cycle is not ruled out). Waiting for Powell... Technically, gold is returning to the range, so the focus is on the internal levels and the key 0.5 fibo, from which the decline may resume Resistance levels: 2670, 2685, 2696 Support levels: 2652 (trigger), 2637, 2624 A correction after the spill is being formed. False breakdown and subsequent consolidation below the above resistance levels will be a signal for the continuation of the fall Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
17
Gold Update: Post-Election WeaknessThe price of gold typically drops after U.S. elections, and this time is no different. This weakness coincides with the expected wave count on the chart, as Wave 4 correction was anticipated. (see related) Wave 3 is extended, and so is sub-Wave 5 within it, which is a common pattern for commodities. Wave 4 has now begun, and there are two ways to measure its potential target: 1. Wave 4 typically retraces Wave 3 by around 38.2%. 2. The trend channel formed through the peaks of Wave 1 and Wave 3, and the valley of Wave 2, suggests a potential bottom for Wave 4. This chart shows an amazing alignment of these two factors: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $2,428, and the bottom of the channel is around $2,450. These levels provide a strong double support for gold prices. The final upward impulse should at least retest the all-time high of $2,802 (the peak of Wave 3). The Cup & Handle pattern (see related ideas) has a target of $3,000.
COMEX:GC1!
by aibek
GOLD → Global reversal H&S. How far do we fall? FX:XAUUSD was looking pretty steady in the Asian session until the press came out with their statements before Trump's speech. The fundamental background is weakening, but there are positive nuances from the news.... There is one last vote left, but Trump has a 99% chance of winning. Markets believe his policies will put upward pressure on inflation, treasury yields and the US dollar, which could have an overall negative impact on the XAU BUT, there is a possibility that in the long term, the gold price will also benefit from the new president's policies as Trump's foreign policy related to China and Europe could cause unrest and panic in the market Sentiment around the US election will play a key role in gold price movement ahead of the US Fed policy announcement due on Thursday. Technically, gold is giving hints of a possible reversal by forming a classic H&S pattern. The main support is at 2708 Resistance levels: 2731, 2735, 2749 Support levels: 2724, 2713, 2708, 2689 Also, H1 is starting to show a local descending channel. Before the official verdict of the vote, the price can still test these resistance areas, but later the market may turn around and start a gradual decline until the end of market-wide euphoria.... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
13
Ready for the US election, GOLD still fluctuates quite modestlyOANDA:XAUUSD volatile without a clear trend, as uncertainty over the US election has fueled market expectations of a controversial outcome and possible political tensions, while investors also Close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve this weekend during their monetary policy meeting. The US presidential election takes place on Tuesday, with polls showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump in a tight race for the White House. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed public fears that the US could repeat the riots that followed Trump's 2020 election loss, when hundreds of people stormed the country after he claimed that his defeat was due to fraud in Congress. If Trump wins, I think gold will fall then rise quickly again because a Trump win will benefit the Dollar and a stronger Dollar means gold will be under direct correlation pressure. However, we will not forget that under Trump, the tariff war and his policies created a long period known as the “Trade War”, which has caused gold prices to increase ever since. up to now. Another focus this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and often performs well when interest rates are low. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has reached the support level most recently noticed by readers in the previous issue at the horizontal support level of 2,725 USD. There has been a slight recovery as of the time this article was completed, but the level of recovery is not significant as the operating amplitude is still very slow while the downward RSI has not been reached yet. level 50, level 50 is considered a support or resistance point depending on the RSI's movement conditions. In the short term, if gold moves above 2,745 USD, the resistance point you noticed in the previous publication, it will have the conditions to continue to increase further with a target of around 2,768 USD in the short term. , more than the 2,786USD price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension. In a more negative case, gold breaks below 2,725 USD, it is likely to decline further with a target of 2,709 USD in the short term more than the original price of 2,700 USD which is also the price point of the 21-day moving average EMA21. Therefore, the short-term long-term protection level should be set behind the level of 2,725 USD, in the longer-term case the long-term open position protection level should be set behind the original price level of 2,700 USD. In the immediate future, gold still has an upward trend in the medium and long term with support for the above mentioned price increase, and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2781 →Take Profit 1 2770 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2765 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2699 →Take Profit 1 2710 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2715
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD is waiting for more information from the electionOANDA:XAUUSD Still waiting for more information from the US Presidential election for a medium-term trend, investors need to prepare for political tensions after polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both tied. each other on scores. The presidential election still has a very high possibility of a controversial result, and remember that in the 2020s when Trump lost the race for the White House, there were many riots in the US. protests led to mild political tensions. With the tight race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris for control of the U.S. Congress at stake, in the event the result is unclear or controversial, this could aggravate further political instability. Trump has repeatedly said that any defeat can only come from widespread fraud, echoing his claims in 2020. If the margins in key states are as close as expected, there is It may take several days to know the final winner. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps on Thursday, following a sharp cut in September, while adding to US interest rate cuts this year. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and tends to perform strongly when interest rates are low. This has helped gold gain nearly 33% this year so far. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold's technical structure has not changed much. For more than 3 trading sessions, it has mainly moved sideways, because there has been no sudden impact from the fundamental factors. Support at $2,725 helped gold recover yesterday but the RSI is still pointing down without reaching the nearest support level at 50. This shows that gold can still A little more bearish, and once the $2,725 support level is broken below it will be open to a little more downside with a target then around $2,709 – $2,700. However, on the daily chart overall, gold still has conditions to increase with the main long-term price channel supporting the uptrend and the same with the medium-term price channel. The most notable support is the EMA21 level which is also keeping gold above it. During the day, gold's main technical outlook is bullish with notable technical points listed as follows. Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2781 →Take Profit 1 2770 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2765 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2699 →Take Profit 1 2710 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2715
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
3
GOLD → The SMAs are hinting that it's about time ... News!FX:XAUUSD is forming a phase of correction, the reason for which is the change of fundamental background. The pressure from sellers is increasing, and the market is forming a key support at this time... Disappointing NFP data was offset by hot wage inflation data. The U.S. labor market report failed to deter dollar buyers as it had limited impact on market pricing in Fed meeting expectations. Which had a negative impact on the price of gold... All eyes are now on the US presidential election on November 5, and the outcome of the Fed meeting on Thursday. Markets believe that Trump's policy will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while if Harris wins, the dovish policy will continue. Technically, traders are taking a wait-and-see approach. The price is forming a range, and most likely gold will trade inside this channel in the near term Resistance levels: 2745, 0.5 and 0.7 Fibo, 2758 Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713 SMAs are tending towards each other, which could be a mixed reaction from traders. Markets are prioritizing a Republican victory, in fact, this could intensify gold's correction. But the denouement of the presidential race is tomorrow! For now, the focus is on the flat boundaries! Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
29
GOLD → The US election and how does XAUUSD depend on it?FX:XAUUSD is waiting for strong news. The price continues to test and even update local lows, but in the next 1-2 days you need to be careful as high volatility is expected. The main issue on the agenda is the US presidential election. High volatility is expected. Until last week, markets were pricing in a Trump victory (his policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the US dollar). But on Monday, the situation showed a slightly different picture, with the odds of a Harris victory (opposite, successor, policies) rising In addition, expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle from the Fed are also supporting the dollar. Also, markets are taking into account the ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran. Technically, the emphasis of the flat boundaries. While the price is trading inside, but most likely an attempt to get out of the accumulation will be formed.... Resistance levels: 2745, 2758 Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713 Technically, gold continues to test support with the aim of retesting deeper liquidity zones below. But the risks are quite high right now. Gold is still feeling the support, so there could be unpredictable market reactions depending on the outcome! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
GBPUSD technical bearish, eye on BoE MPCMarket expectations for the November 7 meeting The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet this Thursday, with 90% of market participants expecting interest rates to be cut by 25 basis points from 5% to 4, 75%. This follows the central bank's first interest rate cut of 2024, which took place at the meeting ending on July 31, 2024. At this meeting, the MPC voted with a majority to reduce the Interest Rate Bank interest rate 0.25%, down to 5%. Key economic indicators influence decisions Recent data paint a complicated picture for BoE decision-makers. The current inflation index of 1.7% is lower than the bank's 2% target, so is no longer an immediate concern for the BoE. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK unemployment rate (for those aged 16 and over) is estimated to be 4.0% in June to August 2024 compared to 4.1% before there. From June to August 2024, average annual employee regular earnings growth (excluding bonuses) is 4.9% and the region's average annual regular earnings growth public sector was 5.2%, down 5.7% compared to the same period three months ago; for the private sector it is 4.8%. Global monetary policy context The US Federal Reserve (Fed) also meets this Thursday, with markets pricing a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.50%-4.75% with a probability of nearly 100%. This creates an interesting context for the BoE's decision as global central banks are increasingly shifting their focus from fighting inflation to supporting economic growth. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:GBPUSD On the daily chart, GPB/USD recovered from the lower edge of the price channel, however, the recovery was limited as the main trend of GBP/USD up to now is still a downtrend noticed by the channel. price. GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.30042 horizontal resistance level and the EMA21 moving average. Even if GBP/USD manages to move above 1.30042, it still doesn't have much solid bullish conditions as there are other resistance levels above from 1.30448 and the confluence of the upper channel edge with the 0.382% Fibonacci. As long as GBP/USD remains below Ema21 and within the price channel it remains technically bearish, while the Relative Strength Index is also close to 50, the 50 level being considered resistance when RSI is below this level. During the day, the technical outlook for GBP/USD is bearish with the highlights listed below. Support: 1.29073 – 1.28448 Resistance: 1.29842 – 1.30042 – 1.30448 – 1.30705
by Xayah_trading
GOLD has corrected down, facing a BIG event weekOANDA:XAUUSD rose quickly after weak non-farm payrolls data, then fell sharply from highs above $2,760/ounce and finally closed lower, closing at around $2,736/ounce. Gold prices quickly rose to 2,760 USD/ounce after the release of US non-farm payroll data, showing that only 12,000 new non-farm payrolls were added in October, much lower than the 113,000 expected. expected and much lower than in September. However, gold prices have since dropped and lost all of their price gains during Friday's trading day. Hit by hurricanes and strikes by aerospace factory workers, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000 in October, the smallest increase since December 2020. Other data from the nonfarm report showed the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, in line with expectations, and the increase in average hourly wages last month increased to 4.0% compared to compared to the same period last year, in line with expectations and higher than the 3.9% revision in September. Hourly earnings increased 0.4% month over month, above the forecast 0.3% and the revised 0.3%. The average number of working hours also increased to 34.3 hours, higher than expectations of 34.2 hours, but still equal to the previously adjusted increase. As noted by readers in the short comments, it is very possible that gold's downward adjustment period is not over yet as Friday's economic data is considered very positive for gold. If it is "theoretically" correct, gold should increase sharply as soon as the data is released, but there are possibilities that the market has digested all the previous data or the data will react after more fundamental impacts. another version. Therefore, I needed to warn about this phenomenon with short comments! Tensions in the Middle East have helped limit gold's decline The BBC reported that Hezbollah launched a rocket attack in northern Israel, killing seven people. It was the worst attack in months and dashed hopes of a ceasefire in the war in the Middle East. There are too many risks ahead of the US election, as well as rumors about Iran retaliating against Israel. Polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in next Tuesday's US presidential election. Gold is a traditional hedge against economic and political instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments. It must be noted once again that, although gold and the Dollar have been increasing together recently, it does not mean that this correlation has been lost. Gold and the US Dollar have a negative correlation and if Trump is elected, the US Dollar will continue to get stronger because of Trump's policy trends (This has been sent to readers in many publications), the US Dollar will be stronger. This means that gold will be subject to correlation pressure. This week will be a trading week with many "huge" events with the Presidential election and the US Congress along with the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). It is expected to have a STRONG and DEEP impact on the gold market trend. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision Tuesday: ISM Services PMI, US Presidential and Congressional elections Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, US weekly jobless claims, Federal Reserve monetary policy decision Friday: University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has a 2-day bearish correction with the short-term uptrend temporarily lost as price activity falls below the price channel. However, this is not a negative thing because the nearest support at 2,725 USD still keeps gold above it. The relative strength index is pointing down from the oversold area but has not yet reached the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the nearest support point in terms of momentum. Although gold has adjusted down, in the overall picture it still has an uptrend with long-term and medium-term price channels and important support at the EMA21 level. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,725 – 2,710 – 2,700USD Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2759 - 2757⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2763 →Take Profit 1 2752 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2747 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2710⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2704 →Take Profit 1 2715 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2720
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 04 - Nov 08]This week, after rising to 2,790 USD/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD then continuously dropped sharply to 2,733 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,736 USD/oz. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US's October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed that the country only created 12,000 jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 100,000 jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. recent storms. Although the US economy created fewer jobs than expected, the country's unemployment rate in October remained unchanged at 4.1%. Meanwhile, wage inflation increased. Specifically, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. In particular, the US's basic Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October - the FED's favorite inflation measure - remained at a high level of 2.7%, unchanged from the level of July and October. All of the above economic data show that the FED is in a difficult position when production activities decline sharply, the labor market weakens, but inflation remains continuously high. However, many forecasts are likely that the FED will still cut interest rates by another 0.25% next week, but will cautiously announce the direction of interest rate cuts in the next meetings. In addition to the FED meeting, next week there will also be the US Presidential election on November 5. According to forecasts of many experts, it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as US President. If Mr. Trump becomes US President in the next term, he will impose strong tariffs on imported goods as promised during the election campaign. This will push inflation up, forcing the FED to delay interest rate cuts, and may even have to raise interest rates again. Thus, next week's gold price is at risk of being double-impacted by the FED meeting and the US presidential election. 📌Technically, in the H4 chart, gold price still shows a clear uptrend when the price trades above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if gold prices still trade above the 2720 threshold, we can expect gold prices to continue to maintain an upward trend. In case the price will return to a downward adjustment cycle if the 2710 support zone is broken, correspondingly in the H1 chart, the gold price forms a head and shoulders model. If this model is correct, the gold price will find its way back around mark 2650. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.700 – 2.710 – 2.720USD Resistance: 2.786 – 2.768 – 2.745USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2780 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD prices fall under the weight of yields and exchange ratesWorld gold prices fell in the trading session on Friday (November 1) under pressure from rising US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. However, the need to hedge risks ahead of the US presidential election next week helps limit the decline in gold prices. At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 7.9 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29%, to 2,736.5 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange. World gold prices decreased by 0.44% this week. On Thursday, spot gold prices set an all-time record at more than 2,790 USD/oz. The main source of downward pressure on gold prices this week is the increasing trend of US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased nearly 10 basis points on Friday, reaching 4.382%, the highest in the past 4 months - according to data from CNBC news agency. Yields increased due to falling bond prices as investors strongly sold US Treasury bonds ahead of the US presidential election next Tuesday. The reason leading to investors selling US debt is concerns about the increasing federal budget deficit whether Mr. Donald Trump or Ms. Kamala Harris are elected. The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.33%, closing Friday's session at 104.32 points - according to data from MarketWatch. This week, the index increased by 0.06%, bringing the total increase in the past month to 1.75%. The USD is increasing in value because this currency is also promoting its role as a safe investment channel in the context of the approaching US election.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Background Change. Is it time for a correction?FX:XAUUSD is facing profit-taking and a strong correction after Thursday's news. From ATH, the metal is down 2% for the day. Today is an equally busy news day! The stock and futures market declined quite a bit in yesterday's session. Most likely a reaction to rising inflation..... The data was quite unexpected. The election race is on the agenda. The main question is the pace of easing under this or that president.... At the moment the focus is on the NFP report, which will be released later Friday. It is expected that the economy added 109K new jobs in October and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Technically, gold is coming back under the strong 2760 level, this was confirmed by a retest early in the European session. The market may be interested in the imbalance zone and the approximate area of 0.5-0.7 fibo... Resistance levels: 2758, 2771, 2789 Support levels: 2745, 2738, 2728 The fundamental background is changing and it is reflected in gold. The outflow of investments may continue. If the negative background intensifies, gold may fall lower after resistance retest, e.g. to 2724-2713. But, unpredictable data will renew interest in the metal, which may return to the range of 2760 - 2790 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11