The fair look on #Dollar and #GoldThe shiny #metal #gold settling lower against US #Dollar which is an index of measures to six prominent #FOREX pairs.
1. Central Bank decision 'hawkeye' .#US
2.The geopolitical menace outlook
Gold-futures
GC (Gold) short downtrend continued by strong uptrend.Classic gold when breaking down in a bearish channel. We'll see a nice slide downwards in to the heavy "demand" zone continued with an absorption and then expect a bullish channel formation with a nice move upwards. Rinse and repeat with gold. Of course there is always the chance these support levels dont hold (paired with bearish news) and we get a nasty breakdown. Watch key levels marked on the chart for buy areas.
Gold is Range BoundHi all, I've just gotten back from my extended vacation. The precious metal is range bound and looks like it wants to move down before completing a move up to tag the upper Bollinger Band. The weakness is appearing in the haDelta indicator at the bottom of the chart. A magenta dot just printed which means that the smoothed delta SMA is crossing over the non-smoothed delta. And since this is the second magenta dot in the latest upswing, it does suggest the price will either consolidate or move down.
The Heikin Ashi chart below is also showing a slowing of the uptrend. Let's see if we get some clarity over the next few days.
In case you're wondering about the new yellow Bollinger Band, I was watching a video that John Bollinger had posted on YouTube and it that video he mentioned that one should try using Bollinger Bands of different periods. So I've added a new Bollinger Band (the yellow one) and set the period to 50. This creates some interesting technical levels with the 21 and 50 BBs crossing and interacting with each other.
If you like this post, please click the Like button, tell your friends, and re-Tweet!
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Lower, Dollar Strengthens on FOMC AnnoucementGold closed down almost 20 points today as the FOMC announced it would not raise the Fed interest rate in May but left a rate hike on the table for June. But regardless of that news, let's look at the technical aspects of the precious metal's chart.
First, the tag of the lower Bollinger Band was what I've been discussing during this bear selloff began in Mid April. This is what I call the 'Coast to Coast' trade, moving from one end of the Bollinger Band to the other.
Second, the haDelta indicator printed a magenta dot on Tuesday when the Delta crossed down under the smoother Delta average. This was a bearish signal and combined with the proximity of the lower Bollinger Band, gave statistical weight to holding onto a short position.
Third, the Heikin-Ashi candles are in a long red downward trajectory. Although last week ended with 2 weak HA candles, the candles have become stronger the last 2 days which indicates a possible resumption of the sell-off.
Now that the lower Bollinger Band has been hit, what is next? We need to watch price action over the next couple of days. If Gold is in an oversold state, then expect a correction to take place. This may result in some sideways action or in a sharp buying spurt. Or, there may be continued sell-off over the next couple of days. Watch the Heikin Ashi candles. If the trend is about to reverse, you will see Dojis and color changes. Also watch for a cross back over the 0 line of both the haDelta Indicator and Elliot Wave Oscillators.
I will be out on vacation for the next couple of weeks so I wish all of you good luck trading and protect your profits!
If you like this post, please click the Lick button, tell your friends, and re-Tweet!
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closed Slightly Lower after Tagging SupportGold closed slightly lower on Tuesday, down .4 points. In early morning trading, Gold had moved down and touched the lower cyan Bollinger Band, which is 1.5 Std Deviations from the 21 day mid point moving average. The rest of the day was subdued, as we await the next move. The haDelta indicator did print a new magenta dot which indicates that more downside movement is likely. This reverses the yellow, bullish, dot that was printed on Monday. In addition, the Heikin-Ashi candles remain red and the Elliot Wave Oscillator is also solid red. At this point, it is statistically probably that gold will continue moving down at least until it hits the lower red Bollinger Band.
Tuesday's Heikin-Ashi candle was a good, strong red candle which was a very nice recovery from Monday's mixed candle that had wicks at both ends.
If you like this post, please click the Lick button, tell your friends, and re-Tweet!
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Remains Under PressureDespite rumors of a Gold rally that permeated the ideashpere over the weekend, the precious metal continued to sell off today, closing near the bottom of the day and down 14 points. Last Friday's candle, while an up candle, still closed the day, and the week, under both the 7 and 21 day moving average. It was also a red Heikin-Ashi candle. In fact, all the indicators are also red. Finally, I want to point out the if price is trading under both 7 and 21 day moving averages, it is statistically probably that price will hit the lower Bollinger Bands. While nothing is 100% in trading, the odds are definitely in favor of touching the lower Bollinger Band. The haDelta indicator has printed a new magenta dot which signals that the smoothed moving average has turned down below the raw price delta.
I do want to call out that Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle did have an upper wick, which is not usually present in a strong trending situation. Let's treat this as a warning only and watch what happens when price does hit the lower Bollinger Band.
If you like this post, please click the Lick button, tell your friends, and re-Tweet!
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Rallies at End of Day. Will it Continue?Gold fell to a new 2 week low during Wednesday's trading. That is, until the end of the day when the administration's tax plan was released and Gold rallied higher to close the trading session. However, Gold met resistance at the 21 day moving average and if you look at the Heikin-Ashi chart below, today's trading ended in a strong red Heikin-Ashi candle. That begs the question of whether or not the spike was an anomaly or not. The haDelta indicator is still red. I am still bearish and holding onto my short positions.
As I mentioned last night, there is a strong trading range from 1245 - 1265. I've now outlined that area with a green rectangle. I've also added 2 volume profiles to the chart (you can see them in their entirety on the very bottom chart). The long term Volume Profile dates from the beginning of 2016 to today. What's interesting is that the Point of Control is smack in the middle of that trading range. And that also coincides with the 23% fib retracement of the current year's rally.
The Point of Control on the short term Volume Profile is nearly at the same level as the 38% retracement. If price does drop in the coming days, these would be the areas of interest.
If you've enjoyed this post, please click the Like button, share with your friends and re-tweet!
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Short TargetsI want to follow up on my earlier post on potential downside targets for Gold. There are 2 immediate targets.
There is a 23% fib retracement at 1256.5. This fib is based on the yearly high and low. You can see a strong line of support there.
A trendline that extended from the last 2 pivot lows has a strong confluence with the same fib's 38% retracement level. It's also in the general price are of the lower Bollinger Band.
To recap, 2 strong support levels at 1256 and 1231.
If you like this post, please click the Like button, share with your friends and retweet!
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Closes Just under Important 21 Day Moving AverageGold closed down on Tuesday, just below the 21 day moving average. You can see that the body of Tuesday's candle covers the wick of yesterday's candle. That means that the sell-off today was not met by strong buying. We've also had 2 strong Heikin-Ashi candles in a row (see chart below). All indicators are pointing to a continued sell off and I am maintaining my first price target of 1235.30 which is the lower Bollinger Band.
If you enjoy these posts, please click the Like button, share and re-tweet!
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold at Critical 21 Day Moving AverageGold is trading lower today and back at the key support level of the 21 day moving average. haDelta is very bearish. Let's see were Gold ends the day. If Gold does break the 21 day ma, then the next target is the lower Bollinger Band which is now at 1235.
Gold Closes Lower & Hits Support at the 21 Day Moving AverageGold gapped lower on Sunday night and dropped to the 21 day moving average @ 1266. Even though price rebounded off that support area, the precious metal still closed well under the 7 day moving average and now seems like it wants to re-test Monday's low. We also had the first strong red Heikin-Ashi candle since the downturn from the upper Bollinger Band (see chart below). We will want to see more of these strong Heikin-Ashi candles to give us confidence that a strong downward move is in progress and not just a chop zone of sideways price action. The haDelta indicator is confirming the downtrend as well.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
GOLD - bullish impulseThere's a possible extension in wave iii of (iii), so we could have wave {5} soon
Gold Trades in Tiny Range as Big News Weekend AwaitsGold closed up a point and a half today on an extremely low volatility day and ended the day trapped within the net of the 7 day moving average and the upper band of the Keltner Channel. I expect another quiet day tomorrow as the world is waiting for the results of the French election this weekend. If the populist candidate wins and the French decide they want out of the EU, this could create major disruption in the global markets. Gold could be the big winner in all of this as the precious metal would be seen as one of the last safe havens around. Even the Japanese Yen wouldn't be a safe haven bet while tensions with the North Koreans seems to mount every day.
So, while I am in the short trade, we all need to be on the watch for Black Swan events. This week may be the proverbial quiet before the storm!
But, until then, my technical analysis does show that Gold right now is a short side trade. In addition to everything I've been calling out the last week on this, I have drawn a couple of orange lines on the chart which show a clear divergence between the last high of the year from last Friday on the price chart verses the QStick indicator on the bottom. QStick is a Rate of Change indicator and it is showing that the month long bull run has lost it's steam. A pullback to the 21 day moving average at 1263 is very reasonable.
To complete the picture, take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. We've now had a red doji followed by a very weak red candle.
If you do stay in a trade over this potentially volatile weekend, please use good money management techniques to protect your account. :-)
Disclaimer: This post is for education purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Continues to Sell OffGold sold off sharply on Wednesday, closing the day down 8 points. The Heikin-Ashi candle finally turned red and the level on the QStick indicator at the bottom of the chart has now turned orange. All this signifies that the pressure to the downside continues. Whether or not this is anything more than a temporary selloff from the extremely overbought condition is still not clear. What is clear though is that further downward movement should bring price down to at least the 1263 area which is the mid point of the Bollinger Bands.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Moves Sideways in OverBought TerritoryAlthough Gold mostly moved sideways today, closing up 3 points on the day. As price moved up in late afternoon trading, I did enter a short position for the following reasons:
1. Price has stalled well into the overbought upper Bollinger Band territory
2. Friday's shooting star followed by Monday's doji indicate to me that the upward momentum is waning
3. Tuesday's candle stopped right at the upper Bollinger Band but not above it.
4. haDelta daily indicator has been red for 2 days
As gold continues to sell off after hours, I will be watching price reaction at the 7 day moving average at 1283.40. If price breaks through that level, I'll be looking for a continued move down to 1261.60, the mid point on the Bollinger Bands.
Baring an unexpected sell-off, it'll take another couple of days for the Heikin-Ashi candles to turn red.
Gold Falters Amid Profit Taking at Over Bought LevelsGold closed flat on the day after pushing up into the 2 to 3 Std Dev Bollinger Bands. The low of the day was at the .618 Fib level. The daily haDelta also turned red today (top indicator) although the weekly haDelta remains bullish (middle indicator). So while it is clear that Gold is over bought, there is no confirmation yet that the uptrend is over. I will be watching to see the reaction at the 1277 level which is where both the 7 day moving average and the upper Keltner Channels are.
The Heikin Ashi candles remain bullish, both on the daily and weekly charts. This tells me that we are still in a buy the dip mode.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Hits Resistance at 68% FibGold is hitting short term resistance at the 68% resistance from last year's high to this year's low. Price is also at the upper BollingerBand. Next move, up or down, will be telling...
Gold Rallies and Pushes to Upper Bollinger BandGold rallied hard today, gaining almost 20 points on the day. On the way to the new monthly high for April, Gold shot past last Friday's high and didn't pause as it continued it's ascent to the outer Bollinger Band, which is set at 2 Std Dev from the midline. Monday's red Heikin-Ashi candle is now well in the rear-view mirror as well. And all along, the haDelta indicator did not flash red, staying a solid blue since April 4.
Most of the time, after a big move in Gold, the market pauses for a day before giving any signal of the next move. I am watching for a pullback to the inner 1.5 Bollinger Band (which is at 1270) which is also at the same level as the Keltner Channel (yellow). A nice rejection of that level would indicate that a new up wave in the precious metal is about to begin.
Bullish Heikin-Ashi chart
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Stays Range-Bound After Friday's KnockdownOn Monday, Gold closed up .8 points but did not recover any of the momentum after last Friday's explosive move up and then equally explosive sell off to end the day and the week. After that action last Friday, Gold continues to trade within a tight range that started on March 22. It is obvious that the Bollinger Bands are contracting and the haDelta is poised to cross over to the downside. In addition, Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle was red (see chart below). The overall outlook, at this point, is Neutral.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Recovers but Continues to Move SidewaysGold ended Wednesday down .6 points, making a late day recovery after selling off strongly to start the day. So while gold did close above the 7 day moving average, price continues to move sideways. The haDelta indicator is also still bullish but is showing definite signs of slowing down and even possible changing course. And if, in fact, price does move down, the haDelta would be showing a major diveregence between price and the last 2 peaks ( see yellow line )
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Rises to Top of Month Long RangeOn Monday, Gold continued Friday's move up and rose 2.1 points to close at 1254. I have highlighted the month long range on the chart. Price also closed above the 7 day moving average and the haDelta has turned back to blue. In addition, the upper Bollinger Band has started to move higher to 1271.90 And the Heikin-Ashi chart below shows a strong potential trend change.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Falls Below Support LevelsGold closed down 3.7 points on Thursday, falling through support levels at the 7 day moving average and the inner Bollinger Band. While it's not clear if this is going to be a long or short lived downward correction, I am banking on price hitting the 21 day moving average at 1232.90. As I've said before, when price breaks through the 7 day moving average, the is a high statistical probability that price will then touch the 21 day moving average.
As for the Heikin-Ashi signals, we now have two consecutive red Heikin-Ashi candles and the daily haDelta indicator has turned red.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Stays Bound within Monday's RangeGold closed down 2 points on Wednesday, once again finding support at the confluence of moving averages and the inner Bollinger Band. While not moving lower than support, price stayed contained within Monday's candle and is setting up for a potential 'Rising Three Methods' pattern. This pattern starts with a long green body that is followed by three small body days, each fully contained within the range of the high and low of the first day. Then the fifth day closes at a new high. If this plays out, then Friday would be the day for price to hit the outer Bollinger Band which is now at 1267.30.
While the indicators are still green, the Heikin-Ashi candles are showing a potential end of the up move which you can see on the chart above. Certainly the Heikin-Ashi doji on Wednesday is not inspiring a lot of confidence for the bulls.
I recommend protecting your profits and tightening stops.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
