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2024-05-09 - a daily price action after hour update - gold Good Evening and I hope you are well. Gold comment: Strong buying today and bulls made a higher low and higher highs. Please have a look at my chart, which contains my next best guess on what could happen. 2375ish has enough targets to be a magnet above but I don’t think we can get there without a pull-back. A retest of 2448 is still very possible. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2300 - 2400 bull case: The 4h tf looks easy but bears got deep pull-backs today. Bulls completed a 3 push pattern upwards and I expect a two-legged correction before we try higher again. Invalid below 2320. Targets above are 2360 and 2375ish above. bear case: It’s still inside a big trading range and market is two sided, despite the higher prices. Bears selling new highs and making money, so don’t just stop that. As long as bears keep this below 2365, it’s a lower high inside this large bull flag from the ath 2448. Bears targets are trading below 1h 20ema 2333 and then retest 2313 and then break out of the bull channel again. Invalid above 2380. short term: Sideways to up - expecting a smaller pull-back before another try to break 2370. medium-long term: Still no better opinion on this to be honest. I don’t like to get into the speculations why the Gold price is where it is. I have been saying that the market was very unusual over the last 2 months to say the least. It would not surprise me, if we just continue the selling all the way back to 2100 and lower. trade of the day: Big breakout before US session above 2330, retest down to 2320 on smaller time frames and then a perfect buy signal after the retest. Breakout → Pull-back → long/short (continuation of breakout) are very strong and reliable patterns.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
Today's Gold Price and Future DirectionAmidst prolonged tensions in the Middle East, global gold prices have surged, defying expectations despite robust economic data from the U.S. The sharp rise in gold prices comes as Israel signals readiness to retaliate against Iran's attacks, disregarding calls for restraint from Western nations. In the face of escalating geopolitical tensions, global gold prices show no signs of slowing down, with projections pointing towards a potential climb to the $2460 mark. Additionally, the metal is approaching a critical Fibonacci 1.618 profit-taking level, aligning with predictions from Dow Theory."
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by fluxgold
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Gold Quote from my weekly post: short term: Neutral. Bulls could break above 2200 again and bears could also break below 2140. bull case: Market seems bullish enough for 2220 test again and i think it this time it will break again for retest 2247. I’d be surprised if we get big sell volume around 2220 again. Market is forming multiple triangles but where are obviously still above many many bull trend lines and bears just not doing enough. bear case: Not much going on for them. I don’t know how strongly 2220 will be sold again but market is going a third time there and bears could also just step aside and trying to short again higher. Looking for longs is the much butter play overall for gold in the current environment. short term: Bullish. Invalid below 2200 but i think we retest 2247 soon. medium-long term: very high probability of reaching 2300 and there i will look how the market behaves. We could be entering the equities off and commodities on cycle. Very long term Gold was nowhere near equities and that’s why betting on gold entering a bullish cycle to 3000/4000 is very low probability. Higher probability is betting on a higher high here inside a big trading range 1700 - 2200 and we will trade down over the next months. I would not enter long term positions here. —unchanged, need more time at this level or breakout to change my outlook.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. bull case: Bulls stalled the market around 2040 which is important now. Bears made lower lows and broke below the triangle. Bulls need to trade back above 2040 and they want a retest of the smaller bear trend line around 2046 and then make a higher high above 2050. At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema and the bull trend line from the triangle, very high probability market will go there for a retest. As long as they keep it above 2034, the market is neutral. bear case: Bears broke below the triangle and are trading inside a weak looking bear channel. Their next target is to trade below 2034 and make lower lows. They want the market to stay below 2044. short term: neutral with maybe a slightly higher chance for the bears but need 1h close below 2034 for that. medium-long term: neutral until breakout of bigger triangle with follow through trade of the day: short 2050 which is holding as resistance. there was a good triple top bar 4, 8, 11
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. Today most markets ranged as expected and bears could not make bulls doubt higher prices. Nasdaq was the weakest, while the dow printed new all time highs. The earnings reported after hours seem that they won’t help the bears much either. Sure, nasdaq sold off today but it’s still making higher lows and i don’t expect bears to be able to trade it below 17400 for now. gold Quote from weekly update: short term: sideways to up for touch of the upper triangle line around 2040, which continues to be heavy resistance Bulls took over since Friday and printed multiple higher highs and higher lows, yet bears sold every high aggressively. But bears need to do more to stop bulls from making higher highs. bull case: Bulls touched 2067 today which was 5 points below 2023 close. Bulls target remains the same, retest of 2023-12 high at 2152. They managed to close above the daily 20ema but the bar is not bullish due to the big tail above. Hard to make a bull case here. Daily close above 2060 would change that. bear case: Bears managed to make today’s bar look weak with a big tail above. They want to break the bull channel and trade below 2040 again. That would bring them below all of my important 20ema time frames and at some point the bulls will give up on trying to get back above 2100. The 2152 high is so far away and they tried so many times now that with every day i think the odds turn more to the bear side. short term: sideways but in a big range, probably 2040 - 2070 medium-long term: bearish odds raised imo and i want to see a daily close below 2040 first. Below 2000 turns this into always in short (full bear mode) trade of the day: keep selling new highs but buy 1h 20ema
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Gold price drifts lower amid elevated US bond yields, Fed rate c•Gold price ticks lower on Monday following the post-NFP price action whipsaw. •Elevated US bond yields act as a tailwind for the USD and exert pressure on the XAU/USD. •A softer risk tone should help limit deeper losses as the focus shifts to the US inflation data. Gold price (XAU/USD) staged a goodish intraday recovery of around $40 from over a two-week low touched in the aftermath of the better-than-expected monthly employment details on Friday, albeit lacked any follow-through. The momentum ran out of steam near the $2,064 region amid the uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut trajectory, which, in turn, held back traders from placing aggressive directional bets around the non-yielding yellow metal. The incoming US economic data pointed to a still-resilient economy, which, along with hawkish remarks by Fed officials, dashed hopes for a more aggressive policy easing by the central bank. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which act as a headwind for the US Dollar (USD) and exert downward pressure on the Gold price during the Asian session on Monday. That said, a softer risk tone might help limit losses for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Concerns about a slow economic recovery in China, along with geopolitical risks, weigh on investors' sentiment, which is evident from a fresh leg down in the US equity futures. Traders might also prefer to wait for the release of the US consumer inflation figures on Thursday to confirm the next leg of a directional move for the Gold price. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of a one-week-old downtrend. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is undermined by reduced bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts •Investors further scale back their expectations for an imminent shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance following the release of a robust December monthly US jobs report on Friday. •The US economy added 216K new jobs last week as compared to 170K expected, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% vs. consensus estimates for an uptick to 3.8%. •Adding to this, US Factory Orders surprised to the upside and grew more than expected in November, by 2.6%, after declining 3.4% in October (revised slightly up from -3.6%). •Separately, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey indicated that the US services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, slumped last month. •The ISM's Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 50.6 in December – the lowest reading since May – and the employment sub-component plunged to 43.3 – the lowest since July 2020. •Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that if the US central bank does not maintain sufficiently tight financial conditions, there is a risk that inflation will pick back up, reversing progress. •This comes after Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin last week expressed confidence that the economy is on its way to a soft landing and said that rate hikes remain on the table. •The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds steady above the 4.0% threshold, which acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar and is seen undermining the Gold price. •The markets, however, are still pricing in a greater chance of the first interest rate cut by the Fed at the March meeting and a cumulative of five 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts for 2024. •China's economic woes, along with an escalation of tensions in the Middle East, could lend some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD ahead of the US consumer inflation figures on Thursday. •Lebanese militant group Hezbollah sent a barrage of rockets into northern Israel in what it called a “preliminary response” to the assassination of Hamas senior leader Saleh al-Arouri on Tuesday. •The markets react little to an agreement between House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on topline spending level, which breaks the deadlock to avoid a shutdown. Technical Analysis: Gold price seems vulnerable, multi-week low around $2,024 area holds the key From a technical perspective, any subsequent slide is likely to find some support near the $2,030 level ahead of Friday’s swing low, around the $2,024 area. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the Gold price to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the $2,012-2,011 area. This is followed by the $2,000 psychological mark, which if broken should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move. On the flip side, momentum beyond the $2,050 immediate hurdle might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $2,064-2,065 area ahead of the $2,077 zone. A sustained strength beyond the said hurdles might prompt a short-covering rally and allow the Gold price
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by sniper_2022
Gold price posts modest gains, lacks bullish conviction as trade Gold price posts modest gains, lacks bullish conviction as traders keenly await US NFP 5 January 2024 •Gold price attracts some haven flows on Friday amid geopolitical risks and China’s economic woes. •Reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed cap any further gains for the XAU/USD. •Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the key US monthly jobs report (NFP). Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks follow-through as traders keenly await the release of the crucial monthly employment details from the United States (US). The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions amid the uncertainty about the timing of when the rate-cutting cycle might begin and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal. Heading into the key data risk, investors continue to pare their bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed in the wake of Thursday's upbeat US macro data. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to hold steady just below a near three-week low touched on Wednesday and caps gains for the non-yielding Gold price. That said, a softer risk tone is seen acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven XAU/USD. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains supported by the prevalent risk-off mood •Geopolitical risks, along with China's economic woes, continue to weigh on investors' sentiment and offer some support to the safe-haven Gold price on Friday. •The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield holds steady near 4.0% amid reduced bets for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and caps the XAU/USD. •Traders trimmed expectations on the number of rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 to four from six on Wednesday following the release of the upbeat US macro data. •The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Thursday that US private-sector employers added 164K jobs in December as against 115K expected. •Adding to this, a report published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed that Weekly Jobless Claims fell more than expected, to 202K last week. •The US Dollar bulls, meanwhile, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the closely-watched official US monthly jobs data. •The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the economy added 170K new jobs in December vs 199K in the previous month. •The unemployment rate is anticipated to edge higher to 3.8% from 3.7%, while Average Hourly Earnings growth is seen easing to 3.9% YoY rate from 4.0% in November. •The crucial employment figures could guide the Fed's near-term policy outlook, which will influence the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding metal. Technical Analysis: Gold price needs to move beyond $2,050 barrier for bulls to seize control From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $2,050-$2,048 region. The said area should now act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders, which if cleared should lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,064-2,065 zone. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are still holding in the positive territory, the upward trajectory could get extended further towards the $2,077 region en route to the $2,100 round figure. On the flip side, the weekly swing low, around the $2,030 zone, seems to protect the immediate downside. This is followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the $2,011-2,010 region, and the $2,000 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for the resumption of the downtrend witnessed over the past week or so.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sniper_2022
Gold price trades with mild positive bias, upside potential seem OANDA:XAUUSD Gold price trades with mild positive bias, upside potential seems limited 4 January 2024 •Gold price ticks higher and moves further away from over a one-week trough touched on Wednesday. •An uptick in US bond yields acts as a tailwind for the USD and might cap any meaningful upside. •Traders now look to the US ADP report for a fresh impetus ahead of the key NFP data on Friday. Gold price (XAU/USD) dived to a one-and-half-week low on Wednesday in the wake of rising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar. The US bond yields, however, started losing traction after minutes of the December 12-13 FOMC meeting reflected a consensus among policymakers that inflation is under control and the downside risks to the economy associated with an overly restrictive stance. This, along with a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, allowed the precious metal to attract some buyers near the $2,030 area and gain some follow-through traction during the Asian session on Thursday. The minutes, however, did not provide any clues about the timing of when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. This comes on the back of Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin's remarks that interest rate hikes remain on the table and act as a tailwind for the US bond yields, which should limit any meaningful downside for the Greenback and cap the Gold price. Meanwhile, traders are seeking more clarity on the Fed's policy outlook. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the meantime, Thursday's US economic docket, featuring the ADP report on private-sector employment and the usual Initial Jobless Claims, will be looked upon for short-term trading opportunities later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, doubts over the possibility of early interest rate cuts by the Fed might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the non-yielding Gold price, warranting some caution before confirming that a one-week-old downtrend has run its course. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price attracts some dip-buying, albeit lacks bullish conviction •Bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in March, along with geopolitical tensions, help the Gold price to build on the overnight bounce from over a one-week low. •The December FOMC meeting minutes revealed that members generally viewed the addition of 'any' to the statement as an indication that policy rates are likely near peak. •Policymakers observed progress on inflation, though noted that circumstances might warrant keeping interest rates at the current level longer than they currently anticipate. •Moreover, the minutes did not provide direct clues about the timing of when a series of interest rate cuts in 2024 might commence. •Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin on Wednesday expressed confidence that the economy is on its way to a soft landing and said that rate hikes remain on the table. •The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds steady below 4.0%, which should act as a tailwind for the US Dollar and cap the non-yielding yellow metal. •The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday that the pace of decline in the US manufacturing sector slowed amid a modest rebound in production. •The US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.4 last month from 46.7 in November, though remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month. •The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed that employment listings fell to 8.79 million in November – the lowest since March 2021. •Traders now look to the US ADP report, which is expected to show that private-sector employers added 115K jobs in December as compared to the 103K in the previous month. •The market focus, however, will remain glued to the official monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Technical Analysis: Gold price might now face resistance near the $2,048-2,050 horizontal zone From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown and acceptance below the $2,050-$2,048 resistance-turned-support favours bearish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are still holding in the positive territory and warrant some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the overnight swing low, around the $2,030 area before positioning for any further depreciating move. The Gold price might then accelerate the slide towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently around the $2,012-2,011 area, en route to the $2,000 psychological mark. A sustained break below the latter might shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders. On the flip side, momentum back above the $2,050 region now seems to confront stiff resistance near the $2,064-2,065 area. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $2,077 horizontal zone, which if cleared decisively should allow the Gold price to aim back towards reclaiming the $2,100 mark. US Dollar price this week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF USD 1.16% 0.44% 0.66% 1.08% 1.64% 0.84% 0.91% EUR -1.01% -0.55% -0.36% 0.08% 0.49% -0.17% -0.16% GBP -0.46% 0.55% 0.22% 0.63% 1.27% 0.38% 0.38% CAD -0.66% 0.33% -0.03% 0.41% 0.98% 0.16% 0.19% AUD -1.09% -0.08% -0.63% -0.44% 0.38% -0.26% -0.22% JPY -1.65% -0.44% -1.12% -0.79% -0.40% -0.65% -0.79% NZD -0.83% 0.19% -0.38% -0.17% 0.27% 0.65% 0.03% CHF -0.85% 0.17% -0.37% -0.17% 0.25% 0.78% 0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by sniper_2022
XAUUSD Gold buy idea 4h breakdownThis is why I love and talk about price action so much. Gold has given us an absolute gift of a level with such a repetitive history it would be foolish to not take note! The white circles highlight areas where the 4h candle has closed above the level and pushed up towards 1967. If we can see a 4h candle close above this level, move down to grab liquidity with a wick and then move back up I will absolutely be taking buys here make no mistake about it. Probability is strongly in our favour.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FriesianFX
Keeping record of 18-04-2023Both time frames span approximately 7 months, with the first one covering from November 2018 to June 2019, and the second one from November 2022 to April 2023. Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop in both time frames, although the magnitude and duration of the drop varied. In the first time frame, Bitcoin started at a price of around HKEX:6 ,300 in November 2018 and dropped to a low of around HKEX:3 ,200 in December 2018, a decline of about 50%. In the second time frame, Bitcoin started at a price of around BMV:60 ,000 in November 2022 and dropped to a low of around HKEX:42 ,000 in December 2022, a decline of about 30%. Both drops were followed by some recovery but did not reach their previous highs. The overall sentiment towards Bitcoin was negative in both time frames, with many investors and analysts predicting further price drops and a potential bear market. However, some also remained optimistic about the long-term potential of Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Both time frames saw some regulatory and legal challenges for Bitcoin, with some countries imposing restrictions or bans on cryptocurrency trading and mining, and some exchanges facing scrutiny and accusations of fraud or market manipulation. Despite the challenges, Bitcoin continued to attract attention and interest from various sectors, including finance, technology, and retail. Some major companies announced plans to accept Bitcoin as payment, while others invested in Bitcoin-related startups or technologies. Overall, while the two time frames differ in terms of the magnitude and specifics of the events that took place, they share some similarities in terms of the overall market sentiment, regulatory challenges, and interest from various stakeholders. Dyor
by Wakandian
Trade Idea - Gold Bearish Re-EntryFor context watch the Related Idea video linked below. This would be my idea for an agggresive re-entry into the trade for anyone that missed the first entry. Price has now rejected the Quarterly level (Red line) and also broken below the purple support zone highlighted on the chart... as price retests this level as resistance now, we can expect that the bearish momentum should continue. For this re-entry we have adjusted the stop loss to reflect the new Risk to Reward on offer.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JoelWarby
Gold Is at buying area with very good upside possibility.Gold is trading at 1923 which its multiple time support zone , last few days back gold bounce back from these levels, so this is very good opportunity in gold for going long for very good returns. The target of gold may be around 1850 to 1860 in few days. The technical analysis is showing gold trading at very discounted price and coming big events like fed rate change and other global instability will also work as fuel for gold price. Dollar is trading near all time high which is not going to stay there for long time so this will definitely help gold to rise upto the new high in coming weeks. The global sentiment are still not good and stable so people are going for more safer investment types of assets and gold is number 1 in this area, SO have a look on gold ...
GLong
by Devjitrader
1
XAUUSD - Gold - Short - Wait for DevelopmentOn a HTF we have noticed a double tops which touched an all time high and signalled the beginning of a reversal of the price. On a LTF instead we can see an ascending channel which may signal a correction of the current uptrend. In terms of Resistance and Support, the price is situated above a channel delimitated by 2 important monthly support/res. If the price keeps dropping will mostly bounce on a 1906 support (1st target) with potential move to 1800. Now we are waiting for the price to drop and to follow this downtrend. We will also need a confirmation/correction before entering a short position. If instead the price breaks this formation on the upward and carries on rallying up then this forecast will be invalid and we'll wait for a reversal at the top of the structure. Be patient and wait.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeWithBro