GOLD-analyze
Recently, the market has been discussing the impact of the geopolitical situation and US economic data. In terms of the geopolitical situation, Israel continued its air strikes on the Gaza Strip on Monday, causing many injuries. However, at the same time, the two sides have begun to enter the negotiation stage. Hamas leaders arrived in Cairo to hold a new round of talks with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. The results of The impact is yet to be determined. In terms of data, important data for the week will be gradually released starting from Wednesday.
Judging from the trend of gold yesterday, it fell rapidly around 2336 and once touched 2319 and started to rebound. The European market stabilized at 2330 and continued to rebound to around 2344 and then reached the lowest level of 2326. Then it stabilized again and rebounded for a second time to reach a new high and hit the 2346 line. Then It fell back under pressure again, a very obvious consolidation trend
Today we still view gold in a range. You can sell high and buy low based on the resistance and support on the chart. Yesterday I said that if the closing price is higher than 2340, the possibility of rising today will increase, but yesterday's closing price was around 2335 , so today we mainly sell
Gold is now near yesterday's important support point of 2320. Now you need to observe whether it can get support again here. Aggressive traders can use small lots to buy and set SL strictly.
Again, the market changes rapidly, and real-time analysis makes it easier to make profits. You need to adjust your strategy in time according to market trends. The above ideas are for your reference.
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Goldiea
GOLD-range trading
The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, the same as February's increase. Gasoline prices rose 1.7% in March after rising 3.8% in February. Housing costs, including rent, rose 0.4%, the same increase as February. If Fed officials were leaning toward a rate cut at the start of the year given last year's rapid decline in inflation, the minutes showed the weight of the evidence may be shifting. Current market forecasts indicate that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June has risen to 81.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July has risen to 55.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates in September has also increased. Only 68.6%. Today, Thursday, pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the performance of PPI data in March, pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, and pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Yesterday I emphasized that this CPI data is expected to be positive for the US dollar and negative for gold, so you will make profits by following the trend. However, gold is still an upward trend under risk aversion, with a maximum of 2352, and is currently fluctuating repeatedly.
We need to pay attention to this trend. I have also reminded that gold has entered the overbought risk zone before, but we cannot blindly guess the top. Without breaking through 2365, we will temporarily use 2365 as the resistance point. From a technical point of view, yesterday the daily gold line finally It ended gold’s continuous upward trend, but it has not yet fallen below the 10-day line and is still in an upward trend.
Gold is still on an upward trend for the time being, but today gold may fluctuate in a range. The 4H cycle is an obvious closing performance. 2318 is a double bottom and an important support point for the Bollinger Band.
The large range of gold today is 2318-2365, and the small range is 2318-2352. You can try to trade within the above range, set the SL, and control the position, you can increase your probability of profit.
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GOLD-analyze
If the Fed decides to cut interest rates in March, there is a high probability that gold will still have room to rise. If the Fed decides not to cut interest rates in March, market concerns about inflation may still push up gold. Therefore, it will be difficult for gold to get out of the downside in this environment. The current market is a process of hyping the Fed's interest rate decision. Before the Fed's interest rate decision, gold is pushed up, but it may also suppress the gold bulls after it is determined to cut interest rates or not, cooling the gold bulls and stepping out of the adjustment to ease the decline. Therefore, There is still room for gold to fall around March 19. Today, the market's focus is on US retail sales data, producer price index and unemployment benefits, which will have a greater impact on the US dollar and gold today.
Wednesday's rebound was too strong, the daily line continued to close up, and the 4H cycle range closed. Before setting a new high, gold still maintains a wide range of fluctuations under the bullish trend for the time being.
At present, the high point of 2195 and the effective support point of 2150 can be determined. There is no absolute rise or fall in gold before the data is released.
As long as gold remains above 2150, it is an absolute upward trend and may continue to rise. As for whether it can break the previous high of 2195, there is no need to guess if the trend is going. On the other hand, if it falls below 2150, it can be confirmed that gold is weakening, and then we will observe the trend. Support point 2135.
I do not expect to break through 2195 this week, so we will observe the second resistance point 2183, the large range 2190/2150, the small range 2160-2183, and the large range 2150-2195
You can choose to buy low and sell high within the range, or wait for the data to be released and follow the trend to trade and control your position reasonably.
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