Gold Long Term Analysis Dec 23rdSo we've seen the Gold price enter a ranging phase in December following the election. Volatility has dropped significantly though, the Gold price did see some fairly large moves due to economic news surrounding price inflation and the Fed's analysis for monetary policy going into 2025. Last week's close saw the gold price respect the current price channel, although we might see some more sideways movement until Donald Trump takes office. I believe the market will be looking to see how the Trump Administration's policies start to solidify and what that means for inflation. Governor Powell said in his Press Conference that the Fed has entered a new phase, noting that the cash rate is still restrictive, however the board was concerned that inflation may have stalled on its way down to the Fed's target. Saying this, there was concern that the labour market was showing signs of weakness and this may prompt the Fed to reduce rates further.
What does this mean for the Gold Price going into 2025? Its not surprising that we have seen some sideways movement following the strong rise through to November. Some uncertainty still surrounds what the Trump admin will do once they take office, Tariffs are the key issue affecting the Gold price primarily what impact they might have on domestic inflation. Geopolitical risk in Russia and the Middle East, along with Central Bank purchases of Gold are providing pretty strong support for the Gold price currently. Though this might change depending on Trump's plans for the creation of a strategic crypto reserve and what he might be able to achieve on a foreign policy standpoint in those two major conflicts.
I would expect the upwards trend in Gold to continue but we may see a continuation of the current ranging pattern until some more certainty arrives after Trump takes office. Although, if history tells us anything, certainty and Donald Trump don't necessarily go well together.
