Timberrrrrrr!And we are short. We will trim some and trail a stop with a "go or no go" target around the 1240 area.
Goldstocks
GC Getting CloseGC is getting close. We are watching for an entry. If we get the entry we will look for a test of the most recent low.
Gold is not so shinyAs we mentioned...there isn't a lot to do with Gold (GC). It getting close so we are keeping a close eye on this for a big break. No position at this time.
SnoozerFlip a quarter...it's getting whippy in the middle which means we are getting close to a direction. We are keeping a close eye on this for a big break. No position at this time.
JNUG Setting up for a Move Up?JNUG has been in an ascending price channel since near the beginning of June. As of 7-23-14 12CST, it is nearing the bottom of that channel.
Currently indicators such as EIS, PSO, BB Impulse, MACD (see indicators underneath price chart) indicate downward price momentum. However, there are some indications that some of the indicators could reverse.
Should the Premier Stochastic Oscillator turn up accompanied with a bullish crossover in MACD then, given past history, we could see a move from the bottom of the price channel to the top (or slightly above) of it. This could represent something along the lines of a $10-$11 move on a stock that is well under $30 at present.
GOLD-CHINA-S&P500: last 10 yrs winner was GOLD. The next is ??When you look at ALTERNATIVES to the S&P500 for the last 10-years, these were two of them. Look at how well they have done.
Haven't you heard enough trash-talking about China and Gold? Isn't it amazing that we forget how well these markets have performed RELATIVE TO the S&P500?
The S&P500 is up 80% in 10 years (excluding dividends of roughly 2% on average). On a compounded return basis, that is roughly 8% total return per year for accepting volatility of 20% per year (on average), a 0% return for the first 6 years and a loss of 50% along the way (destroying your psyche).
What is your guess for the next 10-years? Please reply.
Click on "LIKE" if you already see your pick in the reply section!
Tim 7/4/2014 2:18PM EST
AKG - Update to a WDB Options candidateHello all,
While I am really not surprised, it would seem one of our WDB options setups is looking technically quite bullish at the moment. To that end I thought as apposed to just updating the original post I would take the time to review the trade in earnest and publish a new one. The notes you see on the chart are the same from the original post. I did that on purpose as I believe they are as accurate today as they were when published. The point of this post is to point out the rather bullish technical developments of late, First and foremost, price itself has registered a rather well defined double bottom when it recently moved through the March highs at $2.46. That move broke the highlighted down trend line and came on heavy volume. The move too also initiated an 'upthrust' in Willy which has recently come off a 'stupid' oversold condition. $3.80 seems very achievable and would represent a more than 50% returns from the breakout level. A lot has changed for this stock. After a prolonged down trend, there are clear signs of bullish enthusiasm. A retest of that significant trend line is possible but considering the fundamental backdrop, I believe the wind is at this one's back going forward - at least over the near term. Technical levels hit on pullbacks should be considered buying opportunities as we work our way up to indicated levels.
Of course, WDB options players would have been long for some time now and actually got paid to take the position.....wtg WDB, score another one for efficient value investing....
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FLAT!And we are flat! As suspected the FOMC news would create a lot of volatility. We will keep watching GC1! to see if anything else sets up. However, this is a great example of how it's important to manage your trade. DON'T get married to any one trade. There will be plenty more in the future.
Hanging Tough...for now!We are still hanging onto our shorts here in GC1!. We would like to see a test of the recent lows. We are in a "free" trade and will tighten the stops further due to FOMC, Yellen speaking and issues in the Middle East. WHile we beleive we could test the 1180 area this year we don't trade on what we think....we trade on what the chart tells us. Trade well!
GO or NO GO!We are still short GC1!...however, we didn't add to our shorts. While we expected a move back to the breakdown area the buying has been very heavy so we will keep stops in and see if we can't test the most recent lows. With a conflict happening in Iraq, FOMC meeting and Aunt Janet speaking this week we could see swift moves which could take us out. If that happens then we will re-evaluate and look for another setup.
Stil shortWe are still short GC1! with one target under our belt and stops moved to reduce risk. We are expecting a another leg down. Study the posts on GC1! we placed. We see this type of pattern in a lot of markets and they can pay you big. You have to stay patient...check your emotions at the door and trade your plan.
Thar she goes. Goldilocks is off and running. Goldilocks is off and running. Per our past posts we had been leaning long but we exited all positions because this coil was getting tighter. The bears won this battle and we are short. We are expecting a fairly large move so we will trim and trail on the way down. One key to successful trading is to push the trade as far as you can. It's hard to do but most take profits way to early and never see the full potential. If we get a quick reversal we will stop out and wait for another signal. Stay tuned
Turn around... at structural support ...ABCD done!Finishing a harmonic ABCD move at structural resistance seems to be in the cards.
The structural support and trend lines comes in between the 78.6 & 88,6 fib ...Could be making a hammer here going for the lowest fib and bounce!?!
Safe trading Ladies and Gents!
@BLawrence (I have often a quicker running updates on my Twitter account)
Music at work:
open.spotify.com
www.youtube.com (A nice remix)
Disclaimer: I'm not long yet but the trigger is itching ;)
TNT for the Brain... of gold bugsGold seems to be making either a 3 drive to a bottom harmonic pattern or a harmonic butterfly.
In case of the 3 drive to a bottom - the bounce area is the 61.8 fib retrace
The butterfly is in a conservative view to bounce for the 78,6 fib retrace at 1554.... but could if gold bugs is in ecstasy go as high as the 88.6 fib retrace at 1725
Safe trading ladies and Gents!
@BLawrenceM Wrong on chart (Have often a quick running update through my Twitter account)
Music at work:
open.spotify.com
www.youtube.com
Disclaimer: I'm not long at the moment but...
XAUUSD (GOLD) 21/05/2014 tosbaanearly 2 months going between 2 MA. I am still waiting around 1080-1120 areas.. Under 1274 target will 1222...
1274 is key level for sell pos... above 1303 again will cancel 1222 target...
I am trading short side...
AKG - Gold sector starting to shine fundamentalllyThe gold sector has been rather sanguine of late and considering the lack luster performance of the underlying, that sector under performance is understandable. I believe there are areas within the gold space that are starting to offer 'value' investors some very interesting propositions. The great part of 'value' investing is we are often presented ideas when nobody else is interested. In fact, for one reason or another, the public is generally selling when we are thinking of buying. Because we are buying 'value' (and not too concerned about day to day fluctuations) we seem to get lots of time to accumulate our positions. Once these names put in 'technical' bottoms (which seem to come around our 'value' levels but can take some time to develop) price seems to take off very quickly. Anxiety can get high during those breakouts and FOMO can often lead to poor trade location decisions. So the question is, as 'value' investors what's the most efficient way to be a shareholder? Interestingly, Options by far are the most efficient way of become a stockholder but very few in the public understand how they work. Put-option-writes are, in my opinion, the only way investors should ever take long positions in large cap stocks. Not only does one buy the stock with the Put-option-write (keep in mind we fully expect to get exercised) but we also get to take advantage of bearish sentiment (through inflated premiums). Indeed, the case for writing options gets even more compelling if you understand how the modern day brokerage system works. If you chose to hold the position on margin in your brokerage account, you can literally collect enough of that bearish sentiment premium to pay the margin requirement to hold the stock indefinitely (as long as it stays 'option eligible') and get a little bit extra too - my 'get paid to buy stock' scenario....Here then above is a graphical demonstration of the WDB model in action. The model suggested we could get paid $3.10 by writing the August, 2014 $5.00 Put. If done and exercised, the margin requirement to hold the $5.00 position would be $1.50 (30% of underlying). Keep in mind, we were paid $3.10 (more than a 200% premium) ahead of time....Target to sell half the position is double our cash cost price ($3.80) which should create a 'risk free' trade on the remaining shares. That level seems achievable considering it is well below the natural 38.2 Fib & 200 week sma.
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