Today OPEC is discussing the possible prolongation of its oil cut agreement. What does this mean for the crude? The most optimistic scenario, the extension for 9 months till the end of 2018, is already fully priced in. But the odds are this will not happen. Yesterday, Russia and Saudi Arabia reached a consensus but did not deliver the details. One of the...
For the UK, the rumours of the ‘divorce bill’ agreement between Britain and EU may compare only with the news about the engagement of Prince Harry. This is a real and long-awaited progress in Brexit talks. The rumours were confirmed, and today’s morning GBP surged to the 1.3430 area. This has been just a preliminary agreement which should be confirmed on the...
The euro is not so strong as we thought. The common currency plays it close to the edge. During almost twenty days, the European currency had been growing because of the dollar’s weakness and not because of its own strength. Quite apart from the fact that the political situation in Europe has been improving, EUR will need a support from the ECB on December’s...
Fasten your seatbelts, because this week there will be something interesting, including the OPEC’s meeting and the US and Eurozone’s inflation data. Meanwhile, all the majors are keeping their ranges. The only exception is Bitcoin which has climbed to the new record highs. The currency skyrocketed to $9500 on the news that one of the largest South Korea’...
The Black Friday did not give the dollar any minute of respite. There are both, fundamental and technical factors there, that put pressure on the currency. USD broke some significant local levels in pairs with EUR, JPY and GBP, which aggravated the overall bearish picture for the buck this week. Yesterday the UK Government tripped up the national currency. Her...
Having spent almost three weeks above the 113.00 level, the Yen took up the reins and added almost 100 points to the bulls’ ‘money box’. Again, it means the markets are not sure in the US dollar, and the December rate hike has already become a broken record. So, it is not enough to live up to USD’s advanced hype. The traders are way more interested in FOMC’s...
A significant part of the traders has gone to celebrate Thanksgiving Day. Yesterday AUD/USD managed to bounce while the markets were sleeping. The Aussie tried to grow on the RBA’s Governor Lowe comments. It goes almost without saying that the next central bank’s step will be a rate hike. It was really helpful for the currency. Well, it was quite obvious, too. But...
Janet Yellen will not continue her work in the FOMC once J. Powell takes charge. That means Trump has one more vacant chair. It is quite possible the new FOMC member will be a ‘dovish’ one, which is not too positive for the dollar, but it can’t collapse the currency, especially during the pre-Thanksgiving trading. The traders will now concentrate on the release...
As a rule, political news is just a kind of an irritant for financial markets. The consequences of a political turmoil are unpleasant, but non-fatal usually. When a country with the strongest economy in Eurozone does not succeed in forming the government, the national currency suffers. Today is not a good day for the euro, apparently. Neither is the worst one....
AUD is in a fever. The Antipodes are those who lose positions against the US Dollar. But, the Aussie is just pretending to be sick. USD traders shifted too fast their attention from the macro data to politics. That means the dollar is getting more and vulnerable. AUD/USD is a good player. The pair is approaching the lower limit of its 5-months range. Australia’s...
The risk-on mode is on, and that is what helped the US dollar to ‘save the face’. The US currency managed to recover part of its previous devastating selling. On Wednesday, USD/JPY lost almost 100 points, but the pair could recover the smile. Anyways, we'll keep that in mind. USD/JPY spent some time within a tight range because USD was not able to move to the...
The US Dollar is like Alice in Wonderland falling down the rabbit hole. Will someone or something help USD today? We are not so sure. Even if the US data brings a positive surprise, would it be enough to help USD? Let's not forget that one of the main maintaining factors for the buck - the probability of a rate hike in December – is almost fully priced in. Does...
Today was a big day. Apart from the flow of macroeconomic data, the meeting of the biggest central banks’ chiefs in Frankfurt definitely attracted some of the market’s attention. Frankly speaking, we did not expect any surprise from the central banks' chiefs, yet their comments provoked some volatility in some pairs. The common currency finally did it. Here it is...
Pardon the phrase, but something is rotten in the United Kingdom. The country is torn in pieces. The prime minister has already lost some of its chess pieces, and this time 'the queen' is 'in check' herself. The news broke that 40 Conservative members of Parliament have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in Theresa May. They need only 8 voice votes to...
The US dollar is under the thumb of the president who got a handful of nothing during his visit to China. It’s interesting that yesterday Trump did not blame China for the trade balance deficit, but today he told the US ‘can no longer tolerate these chronic trade abuses’. Bad night, probably. As it turned out, the Senate version of the bill differs a lot from the...
The majors keep their ranges today. The US dollar is under pressure in light of the uncertainty over the tax-cut details. During the Asian session, USD tried to gain some points, but the attempt was ineffectual. The US currency started the European trades on the back foot. EUR, vice versa, has reaped the harvest today. The EU Commission raised Eurozone economic...
GBP leads the outsiders today, and we think it is time to buy it. The Pound is a tricky currency: it can grow even when the dollar is strong. On Monday, GBP was one of the leaders of the trades. Of course, there are all these good old GBP-negative factors, such as concerns over Brexit negotiations, the political situation in the UK and that ‘dovish’ hike by the...
Yesterday's star, oil, is consolidating near the higher levels with minor losses. The asset is digesting the wild and surprising events in Saudi Arabia, and the majors don't care about it at all. Let’s face it: even USD/CAD has already recovered yesterday’s losses to the 1.27 round figure. CAD is trying to catch up with crude oil prices, but a lot will depend on...