We knew it from the moment the MPC uttered: “…some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months” - the pound was bound to rise. Cable managed to jump to 1.3616 hitting fresh 14-month high on the comments of the BOE member. Gertjan Willem Vlieghe commented that bank rates will have to rise soon and may need more than one...
USDJPY has gone high during the last 4 days. And it looks like the time for profit taking is not far away. To understand when to wait for it, we need to understand the key drivers for the pair at the moment. First, Treasury yields keep rising and pushing USD higher, and we need just watch the trend. Second, Trump promises. Now we have second round of hopes –...
UK reported stronger than expected retail price index, PPI, CPI and DCLG House Price index. Moreover, Consumer Price Index showed the gathering pace rising to 2.9%. We need to mention that whenever CPI number exceeds 3.0% target, the BOE chairman is have to write a letter to Prime Minister to explain the situation. And the regulator won't like this tendency at...
Yesterday, EURUSD more than 80 pips on nothing. We mean there are no major economic data from euro zone this week, and it turns investors focus to US reports. The pair moves will depend on market sentiment towards USD, and for now it gains popularity. North Korean woes have not come true, and Irma was downgraded to tropical storm leaving most populated areas...
North Korean “Foundation Day” holidays have not brought havoc to the markets. Investors feared that Kim Jong-un could launch an attack or provocative missile test On September,9 in a symbolic show of force against South Korea, Japan and America. And these fears supported the demand on safe heavens, pushing USDJPY down to 10-month low at 107.31. However, nothing...
Brent started the day at 54.50 and looks ready to go further targeting strong resistance at 55.00. As we expected the market was closely monitoring the EIA crude oil stock changes report. And it did confirm the more significant than expected draw of crude inventories as a result of Harvey storm damages. The storm hit the Gulf two weeks ago, initially triggering...
Thursday has come, and all the eyes of forex market is now on the ECB meeting. On Wednesday, EURUSD showed shy attempts to go higher coming closer to 1.20 area. And we see it even though the market understands the ECB is in no rush to taper QE too soon. Last week we got the headlines on possibility the ECB may move only in December. Now we need to confirm Draghi...
Brent is nearing strong resistance around 53.60, failing to break the level from the first time yesterday. The level already was tested on August, 10, but the breakthrough has not succeeded triggering the further 7.2% plunge of Brent prices. Will it be the same scenario this time? Not a sure thing. Harvey played its role in Brent rise – it make take time before...
The moves of AUDUSD this morning are indicative. The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary meeting confirmed the regulator is not happy with the recent sharp rise of AUD. Moreover, the central bank claimed rising aussie would lead to slower economic growth. However, the pair tried to move higher on the comments touching 0.7958 this morning. The market expected from...
EURUSD is in market’s focus again. Weak Non-Farm Payrolls data from the USA made a favorable environment for the pair move higher. If it were not for the ECB, that came out 10 minutes after the NFP release with comments on QE. This is how it happened. The number of new jobs grew only 156K vs 180K, employment inflation was tiny 0.1% higher coupled with downward...
USDCAD resumed the downtrend, as Q2 GDP of Canada showed 4.5% rise exceeding 3.7% forecast, and pushing the odds for September rate hike to 41% from 27.5% just a day ago. The pair closed Thursday below 1.25 again, and there are some arguments in favor of further selloff of the pair. The Canadian currency is supported by the sharp rise in Brent, as 30% of Canadian...
EURUSD unexpectedly slid to 1.1866 low, although just a couple of days ago it had tried to beat new highs above 1.20. The drivers of USD popularity were positive sentiment regarding new tax reforms from Trump, and better than expected American data. ADP report showed the largest private payroll growth in 5 months, adding 237K vs. 185K forecasted. Q2 GDP was also...
NZDUSD failed to break 0.7330 resistance level a week ago, and since that time we saw only shy attempts of recovery. It means the market doesn't believe in NZD, and even the recent USD weakness won't be able to help the pair to rise again. And this case was confirmed today by fundamentals. Despite quite positive comments from Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor,...
USDJPY came closer to strong support area around 108.30. And now the key question whether it’s ready for a breakout? First, we need to understand the trigger behind the move. This morning it was all about geopolitics. We got to know North Korea had launched a missile test. And this time everything was different, as we saw an overflight of Japanese airspace! And it...
Last week the market was busy awaiting Jackson Hole's speeches from key monetary officials. This week the market will be digesting the consequences of the speeches. The surprising rise of euro was not about ECB's Draghi. He kept silence on the sensitive issues, though confirmed the positive momentum in Eurozone. It was all about Janet Yellen. She was quite...
EURUSD will be the key player today, as the market awaits for any new hints on monetary policy stance from Draghi and Yellen in Jackson Hole. For now the basic scenario is the following: 1. The Fed confirms the balance sheet changes are coming soon. 2. The ECB will give no hints on the terms of QE tapering, meaning announcement at September meeting is not a done...
It looked like everything was over, and we may have a sigh of relief, as North Korea issue is out of the table, and there are no more topics to pressure USD for a moment. However, Trump keeps providing the market with new reasons to worry. The other night he said: “If we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall. One way or the other, we’re...
NZDUSD came under selling pressure this morning, as Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) came out less optimistic than expected. On the whole the economy state of New Zeland is quite robust, however, there were hints on slower growth in future. NZ finmin revised lower GDP growth outlook from 3.7% to 3.5%. And it may be related with a strong national...