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WTI Near Term Topping FormationWTI: USOIL West Texas Intermediate Unlike on Brent chart there is only one clear and true reverse head and shoulders evident on the WTI chart (left shoulder not 'true' on the smaller one, yet so clearly evident on the Brent chart, please see companion forecast for UKOIL for comparison). So this chart is still forecasting longer term upward pressure to the eventual minimum upside target implied by the RHS at 84.82. However, in the nearer term WTI continues to flip within the 150 pip forecast range but due to Brent reaching a significant target point the lower end of the range at 71.30 on WTI is likley to give way at some point quite soon. If you've been playing this range over the last week it's holding right now at 150 pips off the high pretty much but not worth buying again here. It should fall away to 69.69 and if that then fails to the lower parallel at 66.81. Any subsequent failure from here on to hold on to that lower parallel will tip WTI back into bear territory - can then follow short again if we see it further out in time.
FX:USOILShort
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from Here The pattern Bitcoin is currently making is treacherous and too unclear to contemplate a trade at this point. It looks and feels more manipulated right now than ever - as if price is being left to run a little higher to stop hunt weak bears before it gets reeled back in again. It should only get as far as the upper parallel at around 7578 now at best on Bitfinex before it falls away again. To break the downtrend Bitcoin has to find buyers enough to push back above the uppermost parallel and to hold it on the retest. It looks unlikely now, but if we see it happen later on it should be worth following for a potential weekend rally. But in its absence Bitcoin remains stuck in a down-trend and the dearth of support coming from US as it opens means it should fall away again quite soon now from the 7525-7578 range. But even the downside is uncertain at present and it could be that Bitcoin tries to establish a double bottom around the 7318-7263 range when it does come off again. Be careful with the short at this point. Needs volume spike to arrive to push it lower still from there. If it comes and 7250 gives way it's good to follow short again or add to positions looking for 7162 in near term and further out a decline in stages back to 6615-6517 range.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
8
EURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally HereEURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally now Using DXY as the confirming signal (please see DXY updates) we've been short EURUSD for some time now, looking for a test of 94.20 on DXY as the likely medium term top for Dollar strength across the pairs. That came yesterday (too busy shorting Bitcoin to notice, sorry for that). But EUR didn't quite make it to the next downside target at 1.1665 here, bouncing away 11 pips higher than really expected, though it did bounce precisely off the lower parallel of the little pattern EUR is now trapped within. Yesterday was mostly bear closing by look of the chart. Today it's more bull buying with a small impulse candle arriving as London opened after an aimless overnight session in far East. It can rally to 1.1756 and then will probably need impetus and follow through from New York to push any higher still. Only once it can get above here should it push back up to the 1.1823 level, presnting a potential long opportunity if we see it develop later. But until we see that evidence present itself EUR is becoming vulnerable to another sell off, though this time it should only come back to the 1.1721 line to begin with and will need US selling to drive it lower still towards the 1.1679-1.1665 range. With the Dollar expected to enter an extended period of consolidation under 94.2 on DXY it's no longer appropriate to be looking for big EUR weakness in the nearterm. However, looking a little further out in time, DXY is expected to rally a further 1% or so from 94.2 to 95.15 and EUR to fall back to 1.1558 eventually before any real change in overall trend is likely on this pair. This update was posted shortly after the DXY companion forecast this morning. It never loaded correctly. Very annoying. Anyway, what was expected above is happening pretty much as it should so far - EUR is about to break higher as DXY unravels under the dynamic from the highs a while longer.
by sumastardon
4
ETHUSD Next Trade Points from HereETHUSD Bitfinex Although it's bounced off the support line at 543 after a spike low at 538 ETH is still vulnerable until it clamber back above the 593 line here and hold up on the restest once it does so. If you bought off the 543 line here it's not a bad idea to take at least half off the table again if not all. It will follow Bitcoin as usual. Can buy again once we see 593 retaken and held again for less risk. All alts should have been sold when Bitcoin fell below 9300 if you go back that far... Still no evidence here to warrant buying back again at this point yet. But it's trying at least.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Still Struggling HereBitcoin Update Finally, after two fake-ins as Bitcoin spiked above the upper dynamic of the triangle formation of yesterday and came back to the lower rising dynamic of the triangle on the first occasion and then to the apex of the triangle on the second occasion before finally reaching it's very modest updside target at 8450-8460 (high at 8483) before falling away again. It was damned hard work yesterday. The staid steady hands of institutional players are slowly squeezing the life and soul out of the party. But it still moves faster than pretty much anything else outside of the crypto markets for all that. Overnight Bitcoin has formed yet another bear flag with two strikes on the upside signifying 'cold', still with a big rejection spike off the upper parallel of the flag. It's trying hard to stabilise and to attract enough buyers to spark a counter-rally but cannot get far unless the upper parallel of the little channel formed since the overnight high was reached can be broken above. Only then can a buy be considered looking for a counter-rally to 8430 and potentially a spike to the 8481 line again at best before it falls away again. That's best case scenario right now. The overall pattern is still bearish and eventually this is still likely to fall away in stages to 7817-7760 range and lower still. But institutions are playing this like a big marlin on a line, letting it out some and playing it until it tires and then reeling it back in again. When they let it run to the upside be careful with longs - it can't run far before they reel it back in again. So really we need to be looking for shorting opportunities and any longs need treating as scalps at best for now. On the downside we need to see a break below 8200 today to trigger the next short back to 8114-8100 range initially. Any break below 8100 will tip it back into bear hands again and it should fall to 7946 to begin with and then to 7818-7760. Below here the next significant support lies at 7584 and then a bigger drop to 6955.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
BTCUSD Next Larger Trades from HereBitcoin (Bitstamp) Update Just flipping up and down inside the continuation pattern so far still. What looks like 3 minor waves up so far - can be another one soon but still the pattern here is not worth trading unless playing off the minor parallels for scalps right now. As before it has to break the 8468 line here for a rally to 8539 where there is quite a lot of overhead resistance potential. Bitcoin really has to break above here to start attracting more buyers and to start flipping short stops quite quickly. So this is the point where swing traders are most likely to join any rally - we can too if we see it happen later. Otherwise the field belongs to day traders in the near term. On the downside we need to see a break below the lower parallel of the continuation pattern to trigger another short. If the bears can keep price under the lower parallel this will eventually fall away again until buyers can be found once more. It should then fall to the 8240-8161 range and when broken below will start to pick up speed to 7797 at least, if not to 7562. But be careful of the break lower if and when it comes. It may only fall to 8286 -8240 range to start with - if it rallies again from there do not want it bouncing much above 8351 and back to the underside of the lower small rising parallel once broken below. And ideally we want to see no real bounce at all - at any rate a break below the 8240-8161 range on this feed by 10 or more points will tip Bitcoin back into negative and us into full-on bear mode again, targeting 7797 at least, then 7562 and potenially much lower still.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin BTCUSD Weekend Trade OpportunitiesBitcopin Update Saturday 08:45gmt 03:45est So far the low this weekend is 8223, a couple of points below the next near term downside target at 8225. Bitcoin is now counter-rallying back to test the upper parallel at 8330-8350 and should come off again from here and from 8392 at highest before falling away to 8155 and ideally then to a low around 7946 on Coinbase before making a meaningful rally. To eascape the downtrend earlier than this Bitcoin has to break above 8392 and hold up there on the retest. That looks unlikely at present but we still need to be prepared for it just in case a reversal occurs earlier than curently anticipated. Bitcoin Coinbase Weekend Forecast Friday 22:38gmt This feed had to break below 8660 and the lower parallel to trigger next short which it did before rallying back up to break level, exceeding it by 11 points before falling away again. It's now testing the support line at 8400 which is previous structure highs. Although it should put a fight here for a while and can rally back tot the upper parallel again it should fall away again later. Can close out the short here and re-enter on a fall below 8370. It should fall away in stages then to 8225, then 8155 and perhaps finally to a 7946 low. On the upside Bitcoin has to break above the parallel controlling the upside to get any near term respite from the bears .
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
4
BTCUSD Bitcoin Next Trade Points from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trades from Here 19:41gmt 12:41est This still looks corrective at this point. No big green impulse wave starting yet which would be the first signal that this is a real bottom here. It's the weekend coming up and still no sign of buyers in any numbers. But there is a chance so we need to cover it in case - it is holding here still at least. But it has to break above 8654 - 8680 get free of the parallels and trigger a long with stops under 8630. Otherwise and in absence of break higher we wait for a potential break lower needing to see the lows broken by 10 points or more before moving short again (as outlined previously above) 15:42 gmt 10:42est Bitcoin Bitstamp Continuation Patterns Can rally to 8654 but looks unlikely to get much higher at this point. The last patterns lasted for 4 hours or more - this one is about 2 hours 40 minutes old so far 17:10gmt 12:10est Still not a good look so far .... Day traders playing the range - buying off the lower parallel and selling from the upper . Has to break the lower parallel to get short again.And has to break and not spike above 8654 for an 80 point spurt to 8736 where the second parallel lies in wait. It then has to break above this line to run free for a while longer to 8822-8830 minimum and potentially back to 9000. But so far this rally can still not be trusted 17:59 gmt 12:59est Daytraders now closing out longs again and some reversing short again off the 8654 line - can push higher towards upper parallel - but still cannot think of a long unless the upper falling parallel is broken above. This is still just a continuation pattern at the moment. That only changes if the upper parallel is broken from here.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Next Trade Points From HereBitcoin Trade Points Today Bitcoin was left looking at a counter-rally 'towards 9700 before it comes off again'. It took another 7 hours or so of whipsaw and confusion to get there but by 01:00 gmt/20:00est Bitcoin made a high at 9671, taking out more stops placed just below here in the mind-numbing game of Pacman/hunt the stop that lasted right through the US session and only came alive again as far Eastern markets reopened. Then, finally the break materialised as Bitcoin fell through the lower parallel of the continuation pattern and we then got a decent streak of tradeable red - that is if you hadn't been sent to sleep in the meantime. But if you were patient enough to stay with it you got the rewards - in the end. Trading Bitcoin is similar to fishing. Both need the patience to wait for the fish to come to you. It was meant to fall back to the 9253-9180 range before rallying again with any real power behind it. The low so far is 9207. Since then Bitcoin has fallen away to create a new pair of parallels, bouncing off the lower parallel and making another small continuation pattern in a smaller pair of rising parallels withing the larger falling parallel formation. It's now touching resistance off the upper smaller rising parallel and vulnerable once more - a sell from here with stops above the same small parallel. It can spend several hours messing with heads again like yesterday, falling to the lower parallel of the continuation pattern and rallying again, potentially as high as 9469 and the upper parallel later on, though in near term the 9375 line is proving hard to beat. Long story short, we're looking a pattern similar to yesterday's so far. Sheesh. It looks like it has longer to play out but the pattern can break at any point really. It's therefore in day trader territory right now again. To escape the downtrend it has to break above the 9469 line and hold - if we see it materialise later can follow long with stops below. And on the downside after more time spent moving within the rising parallels of the continuation pattern the next short gets triggered on a break below the lower rising parallel under price now with stops above. Until then this is likely to drive us nuts with frustration. Patience or time-out in meantime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
15
ETHUSD Ethereum Long and Short Term Outlook from HereETHUSD Long Term/Short Term Price Forecast Per Adua ad Astra Long Term That low at 360 was as big and meaningful as Bitcoin's at 6000. Perfect Gann numbers too. Like, reeaally PERFECT. Those lows are equivalent of the lows reached in the first internet cycle when Nasdaq Composite fell from 5136 to 1118, a decline of 78% in magnitude, playing out in 4 large waves over 31 months. For ETH the fall was from 1417 to 360, a decline of 74% - in 3 large waves over less than 3 months, so 10 times the speed of the Nasdaq/Internet generation1 exactly. Look what happened to Nasdaq Composite since: now at 7209 - up nearly 7 times over 16 years. No real reason to figure that the Alt markets will perform any differently in the longer term. Just 10 times quicker maybe! And if that's the case it's effectively a buy dips market for the next 1.6 years or 18 months or so - during which time ETH can reach 360 x 7 = 2520. Stay long and keep tracking it as it rises. Time will tell, as always. Shorter Term On and on towards the stars - a little local difficulty at 820 in very near term but it should push higher with Bitcoin still driving both Northwards but ETH still outperforming beautifully. This has already become the key larger market player in the resurrection we see across the market in general. Could be Google back in the day... It should push on to 869 and 896 (900) and later to 978 where it should spend time consolidating before breaking higher stiill (add at this point) to 1400 and yes, one day to 2520 too. Time will tell...never fails. Here's to ETH. Let's hope it doesn't either.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by sumastardon
4
BTCUSD Back to Positive: Next Trade Points from Here Bitcoin Bitstamp Update After the break higher Bitcoin has spent the night consolidating recent gains. It's a buy again once the dynamic from the overhight high has been broken above with stops below the 9224 line when the dynamic is broken above. Until then Bitcoin is still in consolidating mode and moving sideways to unwind using the 9175 line as support as it does so. So near term neutral. Has to break below 9130 on Bitstamp to turn negative back to 9011 . But so far price action is positive and it should break higher again later so long as the 9175 line and the 9130 level at lowest continues to hold from here. The next resistance lies at 9482 and then 9887 and the uppermost parallel. As things currently stand we have a decent chance of retesting it later this weekend. 22:32gmt 17:32est Last Update Target achieved -should come back some - if still long raise stop again to 9148
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
BTCUSD Bitcoin Next Trade Points from HereBTCUSD Bitcoin Bitfinex Update: Next Trade Points from Here Finally a break - so quick it's over - justa quick 100 points. But these trades can happen so quickly because other traders have trigger levels and limits pre-set in the market - often on both sides - They hit and trigger or they don't. This has to break 7810-7800 range to add or open a new short back to 7596 10:22 gmt 05:22est Bitcoin is effectively back to square 1, at the same price point it was printing 24 hours ago and facing the same problems again too. A groundhog day so far. The rally has helped to shift Bitcoin into neutral again from outright bearish and gives Bitcoin bulls a fighting chance from here but whilst unable to regain and hold above the 8180 line on Bitfinex the bears in this fight are not going to raise a white flag any time soon. Bitcoin has to push above 8180 and sustain it to break the bear hold and to trigger the next long shot up to 8400-8456 range with stops at least 30 lower. But in very near term until 8110 can be taken back and held by the bulls Bitcoin is still vulnerable to selling pressure with the 8070 support line now quite important to the near term from here. It has to break below here to end this near term neutality and to force it back lower still to 7960-7955. Worth a short if triggered. But there is no aggressive short on offer right now. It has to break below 7800 for that to happen in which case we can short again back to 7600-7595 range. So overall neutral to mildly bearish right now - and back to waiting for the next trade to trigger from here. For now we need to be patient, to wait and not get tired by waiting. Yet again.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD Weekend Trade Points From HereBitcoin BItfinex Weekend Trade Points From Here The low overnight was 7820 on Bitstamp, some 30 points away from target range. To add to the poor call the stop was lowered to 7917 and the high about 10 minutes later was 7922 - that 5 points was just enough to destroy the short for 80 or so points profit when it might have been more. It also prevented a potential reverse long from triggering in the process. Not too good but could have been worse. Since then Bitcoin has formed a smaller continuation pattern within a larger bear flag, emerging from its upside with a nice pulse of green up to the next resistance line at 8163 after a high at 8185. It should come back to the 8046-8013 range where it should then rally again for a 4th and maybe minor 5th wave up which has to break above 8232 line to fly higher still today and trigger the next long from here with stops 50 or more lower if we see it later on. If it can manage this the next resistance lies off the upper parallel of the flag. A sell again from there if touched at any point later this weekend. Bitcoin Coinbase Update Bitcoin Bitstamp Update
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
11
BTCUSD Next Trade Points from HereBitcoin Overnight Bitcoin is still stuck within a larger continuation pattern it's been cranking out since the lows 24 hours ago. There's a useful dynamic underpinning the rally so far which has just been tested and held. Day traders are using it as the final stop/reversal short for longs by look of it. If long here it's not a bad idea to adopt the same policy. Whilst it holds can stay long, looking for 6901 and the uppermost rising parallel - needs to push above here to reach a maximum upside target at 7150-7160 where it should fall away again. And if not, this decline may grind on to 23:30gmt/18:30 est or longer still (the last continuation pattern lasted four and a half hours). But so long as it holds the parallels as it does it Bitcoin can be bought on exit of the upper parallel with stops below it. Any break below the rising dynamic will tip Bitcoin into negative territory and increases the chance that the lower rising parallel will not only be retested but eventually will break to the downside. And if it does the fall should be worth shorting or adding to from there with stops above the same line once broken below, targeting 6520-6452 range. Final/last-gasp support here lies at 6452. If that level gives way by over 10 points at any stage it's a short once more with stops above 6520. The next support below here/downside target is 5879, then 5130.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
3
ETHUSD: Next Trade Points from Here ETHEREUM/DOLLAR: ETHUSD Next Trade Points from Here Three waves down and a bear flag/pennant sitting above a potential bull flag at the bottom of the run. The low was off the longer term dynamic support line too. Eth is trying to turn here but is depending on Bitcoin to help it break free of the downtrend from here. As things stand it's a speculative buy on dips back to 516 with a stop below 510 and becomes a stronger buy for swing traders only once 562 has been re- taken and held by the bulls in this argument. It should then attract more buyers and rally to 630-635. A good near term trade if we see it materialise, and probably needing Bitcoin to break above 8600 and hold for it to happen. Returning to the downside from here, ETH must continue to hold at 516 on dips - any failure to do so by more than 5 points will tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 481 at least, and more likely to revisit lows at 452-450 again where it will stand a good chance of double bottoming before the next rally attempt resumes.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Need for Caution HereBitcoin BTCUSD Wednesday Update Bitcoin is beginning to make a habit of topping out between 21:00 and 01:00 and bottoming between 05:00 and 09:00 the next day (gmt). Last night we were still running a long and looking for 11906 on Bitfinex and 11867 on Bitstamp when Bitcoin topped out very unexectedly 11780 at 22:20 - doing so from no discernible level of resistance, right out of the blue. This is so unlike the Bitcoin we know and trade. But it did it anyway. Bitcoin was positive up to the point that it broke the rising uppermost dynamic that had been supporting the rally all day yesterday and stops and exits were running up under this line which was lying at the 11651 support line at the time of the break - and pretty much at excactly the same levels that we went long again from. Not good. But could have been a lot worse without using stops. Since then Bitcoin has fallen away overnight to make a low at 04:15 and then a secondary higher low at 05.30 at 10709 before rallying higher again. Day traders are risking longs off the nearest 10857 support line but if so use a tight stop at under 10800 for small loss if it falls away from here further. There is so much resistance now lying between here and the 11257 line on Bitfinex making it difficult to open up a long swing trade from current levels. It really has to move up above 11270 and hold for swings to enter long again from here with stops below 11180 if triggered later. Returning to the downside: overnight Bitcoin has lost the supporting dynamics which now lie above it and are stopping any rally from gaining any real traction now. In very near term Bitcoin is being held up a small dynamic rising under the lows of the day - failure to hold this dynamic from here will tip Bitcoin back into the hands of the bears in nearer term and likely back to 10680 to begin with and then on a break below here the picture will turn more bearsih again and take Bitcoin down to 10296 if not 8925 in the process. Usually we trade Bitcoin every day because the patterns are clear enough for us to do so. But this is not one of those days as yet except for day traders. Last night was a warning that came out of the blue - so far we cannot really trust this rally as we did others in the run up. Want to see it make a higher intermediate low when the next decline begins before being able to determine just how trustworthy this counter-rally really is. So boringly neutral right now unless day trading. Sometimes patience is a virtue. Better safe than sorry. Today, so far at least, is one of those days. We watch and wait for now. More as the move develops...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
5