Rocky week down, up next weekThe chart holds the expected movement for the beginning of the week if we are in the final wave down of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave 4 moved nearly on target with a reversal at the maximum historically observed reversal point and ran one hour beyond the models, however it fell drastically as expected. That idea can be viewed here:
I initially believed the end of Intermediate wave 1 could have been completed on Friday with the rate of the drop. However, the historical data is pointing to a new low still to come. The models right now are pointing to the bottom as late as Friday, but most models are pointing to Wednesday. The levels are outlined on the chart above. The most specific historical wave sets are the light blue levels based on waves ending in C115. and most likely contain the bottom’s location. The next set of data is based on slightly broader historical waves ending in 115 and are yellow. The broadest data levels are the white lines.
The markets could drop a little further to open on Monday are begin moving upward right away which would likely plant Minute wave 1 as the low from late Friday. Regardless, the index will likely move up to or toward a high on Monday to complete Minute wave 2. Minute wave 3 down could begin later on Monday and lead to a 50-point loss bottoming out on Tuesday. Minute wave 4 will likely be a quick jog (1-3 hours) upward late on Tuesday or even ending early Wednesday and the final bottom could occur on Wednesday. The end Minute wave 5/Minor wave 5/Intermediate wave 1 will likely be between 4420-4450. My expectations are in the 4430-4400 area.
After Intermediate wave 1 is completed. The market should move up for at least 3-6 days putting a top somewhere into next week (August 14-17) but further analysis will follow.
