EUR/USD Long Trade Clear VerficationDailyFX.com -
Highlight Points:
- Even more Fed-speak indicating hawkishness has continued the drive higher in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, and this has brought to question two previously strong trends in EUR/USD, but this strength hasn’t necessarily been even-handed: While EUR/USD appears to be on the cusp of establishing a new down-trend as major, long-term support levels come into play though last week’s price action in EUR/USD spent quite a bit of time in this vicinity, seeing price drop to this level on Wednesday only for markets to fight with it for the remainder of the week.
Highlighted
GBPUSD Overnight outlook - Long objective 1.4254Formation - Expanding falling channel
Outlook - Cautiously bullish
Sterling's sharp fall left it oversold as per 15-min RSI, with the indicator forming bullish divergence pattern with price chart in the NY session.
The subsequent attempts to recover losses have failed around 1.4220, still the intraday support of 1.4190 (daily low) is being defended.
Thus odds of a quick fire corrective rally to channel resistance of 1.4254 cannot be ruled out.
Recommendation - Long @ 1.42 target 1.4254 Stop 1.4188
Strategy - Stop is quite tight, but traders may attempt going long again, unless the 15-minute candle closes below 1.4190. Stop however is to be exercised not on closing basis
EUR/JPY outlookThe impulsive decline seen in early Europe has been recovered, thus marking another failure to sustain below 125.00, thus extending the ongoing squeeze between 125.0 handle and falling channel resistance.
A daily close back inside the channel would invalidate arguments to remain on the sell side, thus leading to short unwind resulting in the cross cutting through 127.17-127.28 barrier to test 128.38 levels.
A move back inside the channel would also add credence to the bullish daily RSI.
However, gains above 128 appear unlikely as of now as the monthly RSI is below 50.00 and pointing lower, indicating rallies to 128 and above could be met with fresh selling pressure.
Meanwhile, a daily close below 125.00, which now is also rising expanding channel would indicate the cross is going to have a relook at 122.05 (Mar 1 low).
Outlook – Short-term (next 2 months or so) jump to 128.00-128.50 is likely, where by fresh offers could hit the cross and take it lower to 122.05, which is breached shall shift risk in favor of a drop to 118.50 levels.