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HKG33

Important TOP just ahead. Didn't get the pullback before run for new highs as anticipated in the last analysis but on the flip side it means very little left to distribute. A pullback would have meant more to distribute above but now it looks like a quick up and back down. We have 7 weeks of distribution mainly between 23750 - 24250(See previous posts) Without volume, the last few days may seem like a start of a strong uptrend but zoom in and it appears very much like a SL hunt. Trends can't start without first accumulation/distribution and i see very little accumulation below for it to keep going for long. Initial plan was to go short at 25300-500 but not sure if we will get there so i will look for reversal signs as soon as it gets above 24800. Target 20500 - 20000. Some news will follow real soon as always but markets only move when those who control them are ready to move.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
USDHKD at Peg Support, and Hang Seng Break!I wrote a post regarding the US and China and the Thucydides trap, and if a cold war is in the works, watch for spheres of influence to be brought up and tested. The Chinese are adamant on Taiwan and Hong Kong being a part of China’s sphere of influence and the Americans should not be meddling with Chinese interests. Last year, the protests in Hong Kong were rampant and we saw thousands hit the street opposing the CCP’s 1 country, 2 systems approach as mainland China has a large say in Hong Kong’s Basic Law and foreign affairs. This heated up as a famous Hong Kong author, who published works condemning the CCP, was kidnapped and taken to the mainland, before being returned to Hong Kong with a new approach to the CCP. Go figure. Hong Kongers have been fighting against this encroachment by the CCP which threatens British and Basic Law in Hong Kong. Many have said that the only reason the CCP did not move in troops to quash the protests, was the fact that Hong Kongers would be able to upload videos on social media of the oppression. The CCP does not control the internet kill switches and has not extended their internet great wall into Hong Kong. The eyes of the world would be watching and China’s reputation on the world stage would be tarnished. These protests died off as quarantine was issued to fight against covid-19...something that many have speculated has benefitted the CCP the most. Covid got the people off the streets. With tensions between the US and China flaring up again, Hong Kong is taking centre stage. The phase 1 trade deal, which seems to have been nothing but a temporary truce, is now dead and both sides did NOT meet up as they said they were to discuss the progress. We have had President Trump say that he did not want to speak with President Xi, and yet the Premier of China spoke about how the trade deal is still one of importance for China. President Trump then wrote a letter to the World Health Organisation, threatening to cut funding if they do not change. This is very much tied to how they did not investigate and hold China accountable for preventing the spread of the virus. To add more fuel to the fire, the US senate passed a bill allowing for the delisting of Chinese companies if they fail to meet US security regulations, which they pretty much all do since they do not use GAAP standards of accounting. And then, the US and Taiwan are now set to sign a 180 million dollars arms deal, something which has ticked off the Chinese. Both nations here need to look strong, and this is where many are expecting China to react and retaliate. President Xi is under pressure to make a strong move. Many people forget that he can easily be replaced. Will Hong Kong be that show of power and strength? Enter the National Security Law. A bill is set to be signed, which would allow the mainland to send in forces into Hong Kong under the event of security issues such as protests, mutiny etc. One that could be applied if hundreds of thousands hit the streets of Hong Kong like they did before the pandemic. Carrie Lam, who is the Chief Executive of Hong Kong (chosen by the CCP), is losing her support base very very quickly. How much longer she lasts is anybody's guess, but it does not seem she will have the support of the people, especially once she signs this bill. So how do we play this? Well it was important to lay the geopolitical foundation. What China does in Hong Kong will be important because the Americans are now saying there will be repercussions if this National Security Law is signed in. SInce last year, the Hong Kong protests have been seen carrying US flags and even portraits of President Trump, pleading for the US to stand up for Hong Kong...something I am sure has really ticked off the CCP. Expect Hong Kong and its economy to remain under pressure. Let us take a look at both the USDHKD and the Hang Seng, both of which are showing great plays. In terms of the currency, Hong Kong has a currency board which maintains the Hong Kong Dollar pegged between 7.75-7.85. As you can see here on the charts, we are at the support level of 7.75 which will have to be maintained for the peg to operate. You can see here on the daily chart, the Hong Kong Dollar appreciated and has ranged since April. A breakout here seems imminent. This is almost a free money trade. Unless we get a major event, perhaps even could be seen as a black swan event. That is, the peg is broken and the Hong Kong Dollar is free floated. This would have a huge impact of course on the Hong Kong economy, but also the world of finance as Hong Kong is one of the centres for finance not only in Asia, but in the world. In fact, this is what people like Kyle Bass and Brent Johnson have been speaking about. Brent Johnson approaches this with his US Dollar milkshake theory. That there will be a run into US Dollars which will see the Dollar move much much higher. He has said in a Real Vision interview that the USDHKD is a great way to play this. Yes, a higher Dollar will wreck emerging market currencies, but a higher Dollar will force the peg to break. Kyle Bass approaches this more from a geopolitical angle. That Hong Kong, which has one of the largest real estate bubbles in the world, is now in trouble. He believes that the Hong Kong currency board may not even have enough US Dollars anymore to maintain the peg, which will force the peg to break. If they do not have enough US Dollars, and the Dollar moves higher according to Johnson’s theory, this just adds more strength to the eventuality of the peg being broken. Furthermore, Bass has spoken about the troubles of the bank HSBC. Bass is also bearish on the Hong Kong stock market, given the troubles in the economy and also the geopolitical uncertainties going forward. What I found very interesting, was the fact that the Hong Kong and China 50 equity markets moved much differently than their US, European and Japanese counterparts. The Hang Seng has broken below a very major zone. Here is the chart of the Hang Seng on the 4 hour chart, although it looks just as bearish on the daily and the weekly chart when you factor in market structure. The Hang Seng has been in a range on the 4 hour, just like many other markets that I have been following. The support zone of that range has been broken, with a nice strong candle close below. What I am looking for is now our first lower high. This can come in two ways. The first is we move back up to the broken zone and support now becomes resistance and we see sellers come in and defend the zone. Secondly, we form a lower high swing here right now. This could be occurring right now as you can see the pullback has been seeing sellers step in. For this scenario to play out, we need a lower low to confirm the swing. This would mean we need a break and close below 22730. Both of these plays could be much more longer term. The charts do look good, and the geopolitical environment is not very great for Hong Kong. It does seem Hong Kong will be a central point in this ‘cold war’ between the US and China, and how this issue is resolved will be telling on the future of US and China relations. The Chinese believe the US is meddling in Chinese domestic affairs, while the Americans are saying they are trying to uphold the rights of Hong Kong. I will definitely have my eyes on Hong Kong and I suggest you all do the same.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
Hang Seng to continue Lower?Not the textbook example of a head and shoulders pattern on the Hang Seng, but nonetheless showing us a transition from higher lows (uptrend) to now lower highs (downtrend). I wouldn't really want to trade equities given world equity markets are remaining poised for the Federal Reserve rate decision...but I do like the break, and if we can confirm the retest here with a close below 27980 it would have my attention. The 27400 zone is a potential first profit target. China has come out saying they will not accept the protests in Hong Kong. They want things to cool down. If you follow my work, I have said China wants more control over Hong Kong (mostly getting rid of British Law) because it is a way for people to get money out of the country (also through Bitcoin as well), but also a way for Mainland China to get away from US Tariffs. Hong Kong is not targeted by Tariffs so Mainland can export from Hong Kong.
OANDA:HK33HKDShort
by Uncharted-FX
HSI (Hang Seng) - Market Crash Cycles | Indices | Macro Trends*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks! More details about me in my signature. HSI has been labeled within a Sub-Millennium degree wave 4 (blue), which has been unfolding ever since the 2007-2008 Recession. Structure - Expanding Flat Formation Oct 2007 peaks and down until Oct 2008 bottoms - Grand Super-Cycle wave a (red) Oct 2008 bottoms and up until Nov 2010 tops - Super-Cycle wave (a) (purple) Nov 2010 tops and down until Feb 2016 lows - Super-Cycle wave (b) (purple) Feb 2016 lows and up until present times - Super-Cycle wave (c) (black) Super-Cycle wave (c) (black) Pattern - Ending Diagonal Sequence - 5-Wave Sequence, with Cycle Waves I II III IV V (black) decomposed as Primary A-B-C (blue) Current PositionCycle Wave III (black) Next expected swing Bearish sequence in Primary B (blue) Market Crash Forecast Support granted at or around the 28000.00 mark and then a bull run towards the 33000.00 levels, where the Grand Super-Cycle Wave b (red) is expected to complete. Grand Super-Cycle Wave c (red) would reflect the next Larger Degree Recession. Structure change Breach of the lower trend-line of the Ending Diagonal could reflect the fact that the Market Crash already started.
INDEX:HSI
by Lionheart-EWA
HSI need to prove to stay above 29900 and higher$HSI is stuck within 29900 - 29500 area. the range become smaller and we have shifted down balance after the high of Apr'19 . Today, HSI bounced at 29600, this was showing that market still "hopping" for long term bullish. But I don't see any market conviction yet on the up side. 29900 still the bracket for couple of days. we are in distribution pattern, but will see if the market can change this become re- accumulation for longer better out look. For Now, there is no strong holder on up side here, and no new seller. peoples just buy at low and givin'up at the strength. i scalp it every day, and just get out at every intraday support and resistant. I have no confident for holding longer. I plan to ride the break of 29900 to test 30100 - 30200 level.
OANDA:HK33HKD
by kinetix360
BagHODLersLooks like we choose the wrong market to get involved in. "The sharper the move up the slower the downfall". Might be some truth to that... Sure, "simple people" got extra excited and a huge adrenaline rush 1 year ago, but after 1 year, the chemicals left their bodies? Are these "simple people like you and me that drive a tractor" so "simple and down to earth" that it takes XXtra long for their mind to process information. AAAAAH I CAN'T TAKE THE WAITING ANYMORE SOMEONE HUG ME AND TELL ME EVERYTHING WILL BE ALLRIGHT BAGHOLDERS WILL GTFO A MARKET THEY DON'T BELONG TOO AND VOLATILITY WILL COME BACK. Ps: I would wait 50+ years until the day I die before I go long on Bitcoin 0.72% if I have to, I have other things to trade meanwhile, but BagHODLers put all their money in this one thing and are stuck due to low 'IQ , let's see who loses patience first. A shame... only asset I can trade and have negative fees (as mm on bitmex ).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MrRenev
24
HSI Range playHSI have been ranging from 29000 and 27800 for while. This make range play possible from buying at the bottom of the range or shorting at the top. On a weekly time frame, the trend is on the downside thus it might make more sense to short at the top range then to buy at the bottom. The decision to long is purely personal preference. If you are uncomfortable with counter-trend trading, it is understandable to forgo this trade. Eventually price will breakout on either side. The argument on which side it will breakout is equally strong, thus I will not jump the gun by making any pre-assumption and unnecessarily exposing myself to additional risk. Should it break down, adhere to the Stop Loss at all cost. Remember guys, as retail trader, survival is more important than profits. If you survive long enough, profits will come automatically ;) If my posts have benefited you, please help out by liking my posts and following me. Do visit my Patreon page. Thank you for your support. www.patreon.com
OANDA:HK33HKDLong
by NimbusCapital
2
FXI OppertunityChina had a monstrous collapse in 2015, after that rally it is now showing some short term weakness. The problems they face are currency, slowing growth, and house prices. I believe that house price may effect stock prices but it shouldn't be something that effects the whole market because the problem is evident, when we know about the problem we protect against it making the problem minor and we can see that being addressed. The slow growth is concerning but anything over 3% is still faster than we will get here and they still have plenty of room for interest rate cuts and stimulus. Much of their debt is held in their own currency so that is manageable. The biggest concern is there currency situation, however once again everyone knows about it therefore it is being addressed thus not an issue. Technically there is a large invHS for a long set up. This is a position for a couple years to trade around.
AMEX:FXILong
by UnknownUnicorn103267
HangSeng Index1st weekly target already hit, not very safe to enter now. Now is the time to wait patiently for RSI to retrace to 50 level before deciding on the next step. It is 21bars since the last MACD cross, if the retrace is deep, it might go down to meet the MACD (green circle); which I doubt so. Any thing beyond 23k is already pushing the envelope. For this chart, the best place to take profit would be RSI 70 (if it can reach). Sometimes, you refer to old charts and do not see RSI 70, this could be due to the long tails during intra candle.
H
by dericksim