Drawbacks of hyper bull run. When is it a good time to buy back?We had another record week. Cryptos are in All-Time-High and EHT just broke a new record of $2k!
There are so many topics and market data I would love to discuss here. However, this time I took a different approach. It is a very different post and even today's chart looks different.
Price is going up, everyone is getting rich, the unicorns and rainbows for everyone and forever, right? 🌈🦄💸
Or is it? What are the drawbacks of this hyper bull run? What can you do about it?
Disclaimer: I do TA's because I enjoy analytics. I am not a financial advisor. If you are reading this post, you should know better to always use your better judgement regarding any investments.
Drawbacks of the hyper bull run
If you take a careful look at my chart, a few things should stand out. It is a 15 min chart. Without candlesticks. No indicators. Max zoomed out. Naturally, anyone would pose a question - why?
For me personally, 15 min chart works best for micro trends and 4-24hr charts help me to do macro/general trends. With that in mind, I am trying to demonstrate a contrast between these trends. White lines on the chart form a channel. Usual price action would move between the top and bottom lines. The wider and the more consistent channel - the better. That offers opportunities to enter and exit the trades. Except for a little anomaly since the 3rd of Feb when another bull flag started to form and just forgot to stop. 😅
Inexperienced traders will feel anxious. This market movement force people to sell high and buy back higher. Almost no opportunities to short and that adds to peoples anxiety. Anxiety causes Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO). And fomo cause the price to rise even more. Lose-Lose.
Hyper bull run is the ultimate bear trap. What goes up, must go down, right? Except it just keeps going up! Take a look at the red and green arrows at the bottom of the chart. They are indicators of when market is overbought and oversold. In a healthy market, these should come at more or less balanced intervals. At a macro level, in the bull market you will have slightly more red (overbought) indicators and in the bear market slightly more green (oversold). This Feb (last 20 days) there has been a 1:5.5 ratio! And none of the green indicators at the bottom of the channel! Bears are being crushed with Channel Sell to Buy ratio score at 13:0.
Hyper bull run is the ultimate bull trap. Unless you are a market-maker whale, trading insider information, a genius or Elon Musk. In this market situation, the most "profitable" tactic is not to trade. That's right. Selling high and buying back higher will make you less money than just holding. So you hold. Life is great. Every day your coins are worth more and more. You don`t even trade any more. A month later market crash and your opportunity to sell high is gone!
Is there anything you can do about it?
Now I do understand that many people will come to this post with BTC excitement and a "get rich quick" attitude. My apologise if this post is not what you expected .
I get about 20-50 messages every day asking about when to sell and when to buy. Most of the time my micro forecasts are accurate, however, it is clear that the pattern is changing. So no one knows what will happen 5 days from now!
If you just got very excited about crypto boom and just starting now. You want to invest $5K and that's all of your savings. You are hoping to triple the money by March. Take a deep breath. Invest time to learn a bit about trading and pick the platform that works best for you. Invest $100 to take a trading course. Start small. There is no point to buy at the top. By the time you learn more about trading, market will be 20% down and you can thank me later 😉🍸
If you are a fairly new trader, you were making some profit and loss. You thought that you sold just before the downtrend at ETH $1800 and now you are getting all stressed that ETH went up instead of down. Take some time off cryptos. If you find yourself more and more stressed every day - do not trade. Come back with a fresh head and draft a new winning strategy for yourself.
If you accidentally bought some ETH back in the day and now getting all stressed that it will crash. The price will fall, that is normal. Think about what are you comfortable to hold in case it crashes? What profit do you need to lock? I am not a financial advisor. Think of what are your options. Maybe it is wise to take profit of your initial investment amount and 20% for buying the dip when the dip comes. It is never a bad idea to hold some in the bull market. 🤑
Today's technicals:
Position is short
Forecasted highs at 2030 and 2080
Mid-way point is now at mind-blowing 1860!
No forecasted lows for today. It is unlikely it will dip under 1900 and it really should. Maybe it will just keep going up forever 😂
Have fun trading! 🤑
If you would like to have early access invite to my TA's write: "I am buying this weekend" or "I am not buying this weekend" in the comments below 🙈💸
