ROIV - BioTech reporting 2/13 as a LONG earnings tradeRoivant Scientes, on the 15 minute chart is experiencing increase volatility and volume now two
days out from its earnings report. The MACD with zero lag shows a bullish inflection in the lines
On the daily chart, ROIV gained 38% in 2023 but has been down 4 %YTD. The volume and
volatility show both are heightened in the pre-earnings run- up. The last report in November
was a double beat which is good prognosis for the one upcomings. This is a risky earnings
play, ROIV does not yet make money. However, because it lost less than forecasted, buyer
interest has increased. The call option for 2/16 for a strike of $12.50 is priced at $ 5.00
per contract. I suspect a long trade in shares may gain to $ 11.50 targeting the double top
at the turn of the year for a projected gain upside of about 7% (with a stop loss of 2.5%).
Considering that ROIV has gained 12% this past week, 7% in the next two days is about the
same trend angle. As to the call contract, I have considered 100% return as my expections
for the two days before the earnings. If earnings disappoint trader expectations and price fades
I will sell to close the contract. If earnings is as expected, I will roll the contract forward into
the March monthly and add a bit more capital into the trade.
