FED Fund Rate, US Bonds and Inflation PredictionThe blue line area shows the historic and current FED's Fund Rate.
Looking back in the past it appears the US10Y (yellow line) is predictive of FED's fund rate upper target (orange arrows).
The US3M (turquoise line) seems to be a good indicator to get a feeling for the FED's fund rate short-term up or downward trend.
In the FOMC Summary of Economic Projections Jun 15 '2022 the FOMC had the midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate at around below 4%
2022: 3,39% midpoint, 2023: 3.78%, 2024: 3.01% and >2024: 2,24% (ghost feed in the red box on the right).
So all that noted it would appear the FED Funds rate is to be expected at just below 4% at around 3.8%.
The next FOMC meeting will give as an update on that from the perspective of the FED.
And as a general indicator you need to know the FED uses the 10 Year- 3 Month Treasury Yield Spread (white line) as follows:
The 10 Year- 3 Month Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 3 month treasury rate.
This spread is widely used as a gauge to study the yield curve. A 10 year-3 month treasury spread that approaches 0 signifies a
"flattening" yield curve. Furthermore, a negative 10 year-3 month spread has historically been viewed as a precursor or
predictor of a recessionary period. The New York Fed uses the rate in a model to predict recessions 2 to 6 quarters ahead (white arrows).
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