DXY D1
With the above being said... 'key global topics' and other comments, we have to understand the market correlation and timeframes... We can take yesterdays D1 close with a pinch of salt, due to inconsistent volume, but lets see where we close after today (hoping support holds).
US based FX and commodities look like they want to be correcting somewhat....
The three decade + trend for bond rates has been downward. In June, we witnessed the first rise above that trend line in recent history, followed by a return to the trendline last week. This is a pivotal point for both bonds and stocks. If stocks drop back down below the trendline, we can see the market go higher in the near term. If the 30 year bond rates...
Between the 2008 great financial housing crisis, the end of the dotcom bubble in the year 2000, the 1970s stagflation recession, and the great depression of 1929 all have one thing in common. The market retraced at least 50% from it's peak. I personally believe the US economy is in conditions for a recession that will at least sink 50% or more if we were to...
DXY H4
As long as we are still trading north of this last area of H4 demand, we can look to catch dollar bid, GBPUSD shorts from 1.20 specifically is on the horizon.
Weekend volume causing that bit of chop we see, but hopefully this double bottom structure we see may see dollar reverse and continue it's bullish trend.
The EuroDollar futures market is pricing in rate hikes as seen by the upward slope on the left, but the peak of the curve (contracts which expire in June and September of 2023) suggests that investors believe rates will reach their high and then go down after that and keep going down well into the foreseeable future.
This is an ominous sign that the Federal...
Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats.
(...the music stops)
Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you!
The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily.
It most likely will be a depression via stagflation...
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning.
The...
Aggressive rate projection for 2023 by the #FED was the main highlight from the meeting
in an effort to curb #inflation expectations
2.5% is the target of it expectations for 2023
(which is unsustainable due to the high levels of debt in the system)
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FOMC meeting next week, February 16, 2022. Here are our expectations for...
Historically in America the interest rate for a 30 year fixed has been in a multi-decade down trend. As of January 2021 the rate for a 30 year fixed dropped to a historical low of around 2.65% and has since reversed in trend. This year we can potentially see rates continue to rise up to 3.75% as we're in secondary uptrend on the line chart. Currently we're at...
The Market's longer term uptrend still intact. Interest rates are driving the market.. These names have shown good relative strength and accumulation volume and most are in the growth sector. This may give good risk/reward entries on some of the best names. Some of these charts still need to confirm their price action. This video is my watchlist. Most of these...
With growth and inflation rising, leading to a steeper yield curve, financials should continue to perform. One name that sold off meaningfully last week was ECPG. The debt collector should continue to do well in the immediate term given the macro tailwinds to the sector. I'd be a small buyer here, playing for a return to the recent range.
Rising inflation has been the question many analysts, investors, and traders want answers to. Fortunately, these answers may come soon as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to take the stage (virtually, of course) to address the future of US Monetary Policy post Coronavirus and, hopefully, answer the myriad of questions regarding the Fed’s stance on...
German yields seem to be tracing intermediate wave 3 down of primary wave 5. Yields should decrease below -0.91. If the level at -0.14 is touched, this scenario should be void as primary wave 5 down may have already been completed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
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Monthly view of the 10 year yield here.
Yield touched current levels in 2012 in anticipation of QE3.
Again in June 2016 over Brexit.
3rd time in August/September of trade war.
4th - Coronavirus? I would bet this is this what initiates the break down.
10 yr around 1% or lower coming soon?
Inflation expectation is creeping higher in Australia.
Currently, Core CPI is at 1.60, CPI Housing Utilities is increasing, the inflation rate is currently 1.7 and up 0.1 from September.
With the US CPI coming out today better than expected but less than the previous reading traders have sold the US dollar.
The likelihood is that the Fed keeps interest rates as...
