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Interestratehike

Fed's Hope in 2024 - Their Projection & PlanDuring the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026. Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan. So what is the difference between a projection and a plan? And how will the market performance in 2024? Dow Jones Futures & Options E-mini Dow Jones Ticker: YM 1.00 index point = $5.00 Micro E-mini Dow Jones Ticker: MYM 1.0 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by konhow
4
Interest rate up to at least 6.5% in 2023, why?The Fed chairman has given the market a very important clue on 13 Dec 22. At what level will he consider an interest rate cut? He said “I wouldn't see us considering rate cuts until the committee is confident that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustained way,” meaning only if CPI is heading nearing 2% then it is hopeful to see a rate cut. Market consensus for CPI to range between 5% to 8..9% for this year. If this is true, the Fed is likely to continue to hike the rate moderately at 0.25% in each meeting just to bring inflation down. I am seeing this as the best case scenario. Today’s content: Strategy in an inflationary environment: i. Commodity – Buy them ii. Stock market – Trade them Can inflation be hedged and can we trade into the interest rate uptrend? CME Micro 30 Year Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 point = $1 0.01 point = $10 0.1 point = $100 1 point = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
TVC:US30YLong
by konhow
15
Metals to Break its All Time High AgainMetals to Break its All Time High. I have discussed about Gold before and in this tutorial we will study into Copper. From last week Fed chairman statement, he said “it is premature to be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to go." The continuous inflation is almost a certainty into next year, and what asset or instrument works well with inflation? Content: Why interest in copper again • Fundamental • Technical 5 Major Copper Uses: • Building Construction • Electronic Products • Transportation • Industrial Machinery & Equipment • Medical Copper Consumption Worldwide: 1. China 54% 2. Europe 15% 3. Other Asia 14% 4. America 11% 5. Other 6% Source: Statista 2021 Minimum fluctuation 0.0005 per pound = $12.50 0.001 = $25 0.01 = $250 0.1 = $2,500 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
COMEX:HG1!
by konhow
3
Inflation & Interest Rate Series – The CPI Rally Content: • Why CPI could be at the beginning of a rally? • On 14 Dec 21, Fed: “Inflation is not transitory” changes everything • Strategy to counter inflation Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. If you are into shorter-term trading, the live data feed is definitely a must for traders. In part 2 of this series, we will do a deep dive on if CPI were to decline, to at what specific level? Before we can consider inflation is under control. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us. COMEX Micro Gold 0.1 = US$1 1.0 = US$10 1700 points = US$17,000 Eg. 100 points profit = US$1,000
Editors' picks
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by konhow
4
Inflation & Interest Rate Series / Dollar and Gold I have started this inflation and interest rate series, in our last video, we discussed "Inverted Yield". Today will be discussing the relationship between: . Inflation . Interest rate . Dollar and . Gold Today's Content: • Why with higher interest rates, it strengthens the USD • Is USD the strongest currency? If not, then who? • Strategy to counter inflation • Interest rate higher, but a lower USD? Dollar Index: . Measure the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. . These are: the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. . With the increase of money supply over the decades, it causes currencies dilution. When currencies weaken, inflation follows. COMEX Gold 0.1 = US$10 1.0 = US$100 10 points = US$1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us.
Editors' picks
ICEUS:DX1!Education
by konhow
7
NZD/USD - BUY SET UP AS INTEREST RATES IN NEW ZEALAND RISE We are highly likely to see a strong recovery in the New Zealand Dollar Against the U.S Dollar as interest rates in New Zealand continue to rise. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to 3.50% by year-end, which will be a premium 0.75% to 1.00% Interest rate over the U.S. This means any investors holding short positions in NZD/USD will lose money holding the position open overnight. The U.S Dollar has been strong in recent weeks as stock markets have fallen due to the Federal Reserves' commitment to raising interest rates aggressively to contain inflation running at 8.30%. When stock markets fall globally, investors historically sell international currencies and flood into the safety of the U.S Dollar, as its the worlds reserve currency. However, when stocks recover as they always do, investors will quickly sell dollars and move back into international currencies as they invest globally in equities again, causing the dollar to weaken in exchange rates and push up NZD/USD.
Long
by KayansMarkets
EUR/JPY - BUY SET UP ON ECB RATE HIKES The Euro is now highly likely to catch a strong bid against the Yen after the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Central Bank is likely to start raising interest rates in July and exit sub-zero territory by the end of September 2022. Interest rate differentials on Government Bonds will support the EURO higher. In this video I breakdown the historical relationship between the difference in Japan and Europe's interest rates and how the currency pair follows the negative or positive change in European Bond Yields relative to Japan.
Long
by KayansMarkets
How Developing Countries Predicted the Rise of the MetaverseThe market is down right now but these are also good times to take a look at what might be the "next big thing". Had you got into the metaverse a year ago, you will most likely be up right now. Otherwise, you're probably in the red. (Yes, even Bitcoin and Ethereum.) The metaverse is this year's clear winner in terms of performance, and it's not too surprising that a lot of big name brands have decided to try to get in on it, too. A lot of people claim that Zuckerberg's "Meta" was what sparked the metaverse craze, but if you look at AXS's chart it's pretty clear that the coin was climbing way before the media gave the idea any attention. A lot of innovations and early-adoption activities happen in lesser-known (often non-English speaking and developing) countries before making its way into the "mainstream", so to speak. Predicting long-term trends is not magic - you just need to know where to look.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
GBP/JPY - Pound Bullish on BoE Rate Hike Expectations Fundamentals Key Points: 1. Markets are expecting UK Inflation to overshoot the central banks' 2% target and reach 3.35% in the coming years. 2. UK 10 Year Bond yields have been rising as a result of high inflation expectations. 3. Against countries like Japan, Switzerland & Germany the UK 10 Year Government Bond Yield is more attractive for investors causing money to move into the UK from these countries and the pound has been getting stronger against all three currencies as a result of the UK's Bond Yield rising. 4. The Bank of England said on May 27th that if people are moved off furlough back into work at a faster pace than previously expected, The Bank of England may be forced to withdraw some of its monetary stimulus and potentially raise interest rates as inflation will rise as the demand for goods and services rise from employment and the re-opening of the economy. 5. High levels of employment will boost price pressures at a time when inflation is already expected to be high from supply shortages caused by the pandemic. 6. This scenario means the central bank will be forced to act and withdraw its monetary support to curb inflation by reducing its bond-buying program, causing the price of bonds to decline and pushing up the Yield due to their inverse correlation. 7. A rate hike would also cause UK short-term rates to move into a profitable carry trade against currencies like the Japanese Yen & CHF & EUR. What To Watch Employment Data Rate Hike Expectations UK Bond Yield’s Trade Idea’s EUR/GBP - SELL GBP/JPY - BUY GBP/CHF - BUY Technicals GBP/JPY - Key Resistance ¥160.00 GBP/CHF - Key Resistance 131.000 EUR/GBP - Key Support €183.500 

 ATR Volatility GBP/JPY - 4.76% GBP/CHF - 4.06% EUR/GBP - 3.72%
Long
by KayansMarkets