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Iran

Iran & Attractive Buying Territory in OilPlenty of noise in the street today ... giving large hands another opportunity to shake out shorts and offering those sharp enough cheap entries ahead of Trump confirming the US to leave the Iran deal (just over an hour from now). => We have posted in detail about the flows into BTC and Gold with Iran (see attached) as risk enters into the picture one more time from the political side. => Expecting a sharp and short lived knee jerk reaction on the confirmation, followed by a slow grind higher into the $72 handle completing our second and final target. => US foreign policy is threatening the future of the global economy, things are starting to look dark ahead . => Simple stuff from a technical perspective, we are buying the bottom of the channel with targets towards the highs. This will be the final clearing leg for all of our longer-term positioned longs as we expect exhaustion to start coming in from bulls due to the continual increases from the supply side making anything higher without a fully escalated war harder to justify. GL
TVC:USOILLong
by RaiseTheBid
2
Prices for Brent crude oil rallied at 2% on Tuesday tradesPrices for Brent rose sharply against the background of political tension. There was an aggravation of relations between Iran and the head of the White House, Donald Trump, who threatens to terminate the nuclear deal. They put considerable pressure on the market and quotes, as it can reduce the volume of daily world oil production by 600 thousand barrels per day. Also today in the United States comes a weekly report on crude oil reserves, which due to the increase in the number of drillings can deploy quotes. Therefore, based on these facts and the fact that the price approached the psychological level of $68 per barrel, we expect the release of prices and the reversal of quotations. Therefore, we will consider the opportunities to enter the market for short positions and seek for its targets level of $65.00 per barrel. Stop-loss can be set at 68.50
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by SuperForex
UCO: We bought yesterday's closeThis is potentially a very good trade, for the time being, we can expect it to retest the top of the range. If you didn't buy with me and my clients yesterday at the close, you can buy here, risking a new low under the recent lowest low. Target is at least a retest of the previous rally's top, but it could evolve into resuming the longer term 'Time at mode' uptrend signal in the oil chart. In the case of $UCO, it could rally to 21.19. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:UCOLong
by IvanLabrie
2
FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT?Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to be welcomed by Iran/ Russia et al. who have recently been able to offer their produce to the market As above It only takes one party out of the 10/20 opec members for the whole agreement to fall through, a cartel does not work unless ALL parties agree since failiure to do so causes economic inequities which void business logic otherwise. - thus this trade is a bet that one or more members will indeed fail to agree and thus void the output cut deal. 3. Fundamentally also being short here makes some sense since it is around 50-60USD that USD shales producers are able to enter the market thus prices above 50 incur a level of natural supply which acts as a price smoother. Furthermore the oil rally from 40-50 was purely based on an OPEC cut. Fair equilibrium for oil is in the region of 40-45USD imo. Not to mention Fed hike risk and the USD topside are all welcomed downside drivers. 4. Technically oil at 50usd is at some good resistance, whilst oil vol is at yearly lows. Vol is likely to pick up as negotiations heat up, this may also see oil trader better on the offer. 5. Lets not also forget that the main reason opec flooded the oil market back in 2014 was in order to maintain their dominant position and prevent US shale. Thus it is even more questionable the legitimacy of this agreement (thus making it even more unlikely imo). Trading strategy - short WTI Oil at 50usd or on rallies above: 1. Short oil above 50 running a 2:1 risk profile. 44TP is advised from a support perspective and stops could be placed at 52 just above cycle highs for 3:1 or more tactical positions at 53 for 2:1. 2. FX players may instead opt to trade $CAD. Entries here should look for above 1.34 with 200pips TP and 100pips of risk. This is perhaps a better way to express a FED hike view and dollar bid sentiment. Coupled with poor Loonie macro.
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
As #OPEC Meets, #Crude May Feel DisappointedTomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution. MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the one key dynamic factor in crude prices would be supply (same goes for Brent and OPEC). Essentially, West Texas Intermediate would continue to see woes until there were meaningful cutbacks in crude production, which finally began to filter through on a combination of record-low rig counts and bankruptcies (yes, bankruptcies are bullish). Crude output levels in the U.S. are at levels last seen during the second-half of 2014. West Texas Intermediate has been trading within the current supply range between $48/50 for the last 12 trading sessions, and price action is currently treating the current trend support on narrowing price action. If OPEC disappoints tomorrow, and break through trend would cause traders to seek out support near $42, while a confirmed breakout of the supply zone could trigger buying to $55. The weekly chart picture for crude: OPEC's production has largely offset declines seen by U.S. shale producers, and members will continue to press on. Iran has said they look to achieve 2.2 Mbbl/day to compete with Saudi for market share; Iraq and Kuwait both look to increase their production meaningfully. Non-OPEC member Russia continues to keep oil production at post-Soviet highs. Side note: expect volatility in commodities currencies on headline risk. The Canadian dollar has pulled back after gaining 18 percent on crude's rally, but it remains vulnerable. For more information on MacroView's products, or general questions and comments, feel free to message us. Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroView_Research
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.) Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ." There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary. The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure. Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off. Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence. The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend. However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
C
by CommoditiesTrader
MACRO VIEW: SNP LIKELY TO FALL WITHIN WIDER LATERAL RANGEOn technical basis, SPY (The S&P500 ETF) has broken down below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days), while also breaking below 1 year mean (264 days). The price has now entered a downtrend on quarterly basis, and will continue to fall if price stays below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (207.1) Closest target is the lower 1st st deviation from 1 year mean (197.70) After the target is tagged, price will likely stay within 1st standard deviation from 1 year mean for some time (range will be 197.7 - 212.5) SPY is mostly influenced by upcoming September uncertainty, caused by upcoming US policy decision in regard to Iran (to leave it sanctioned or to open it up).
AMEX:SPYShort
by Killy_Mel
4