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Yen Traders Tread Cautiously as Japan Hints at InterventionAnxiety hangs heavy over the yen market. With the Japanese currency hovering near a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar, traders are wary of potential intervention from Japanese authorities. This comes as Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government's concerns about the rapid depreciation of the yen. The Yen's Slide: A Perfect Storm The yen's recent decline can be attributed to a confluence of factors: • Divergent Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve are aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This widening interest rate differential makes the dollar a more attractive investment compared to the yen. • Global Risk Aversion: As geopolitical tensions and concerns about a global economic slowdown escalate, investors are seeking refuge in dollar-denominated assets, further weakening the yen. • Japan's Trade Dependence: Japan relies heavily on imports for essential resources like energy and food. A weaker yen makes these imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation within Japan. Verbal Intervention: A Warning Shot Finance Minister Suzuki's recent statements can be seen as a warning shot to currency markets. He emphasized the government's "deep concern" about the yen's depreciation and hinted at the possibility of intervention if excessive volatility persists. However, the effectiveness of verbal intervention is debatable. Without concrete action, traders might remain skeptical. Intervention: A Double-Edged Sword Direct intervention in the currency market involves the Japanese government selling dollars and buying yen to artificially strengthen the currency. While this can achieve short-term results, it comes with drawbacks: • Costly Defense: Intervention can be expensive, draining Japan's foreign currency reserves. • Market Distortion: Heavy intervention can distort market forces and create uncertainty for traders. • Limited Effectiveness: The effectiveness of intervention depends on the size of the intervention and the broader economic backdrop. If underlying economic fundamentals favoring a weaker yen persist, intervention might have only a temporary impact. Traders on Edge: Waiting for the Next Move Yen traders are currently in a wait-and-see mode. They are closely monitoring the Japanese government's actions and statements, along with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, for any signs that could influence the yen's direction. The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act The future path of the yen will be determined by several factors: • The BOJ's Monetary Policy: Any change in the BOJ's stance, even a hint of a future rate hike, could strengthen the yen. However, the BOJ is expected to remain dovish for the foreseeable future. • Global Risk Sentiment: If global risk aversion eases, investors might be less inclined to seek refuge in the dollar, potentially aiding the yen. • The Effectiveness of Intervention: If Japan intervenes in the currency market and does so decisively, it might provide temporary support to the yen. Conclusion: A Fragile Currency in Uncertain Times The outlook for the yen remains uncertain. While the Japanese government may intervene to curb its rapid depreciation, the effectiveness of such strategies is limited without addressing the underlying economic factors. The future direction of the yen will likely hinge on global economic developments and the monetary policy decisions of major central banks.
by bryandowningqln
4
GBP/JPY: A Closer Look at Growing Momentum - SHORTAnalyzing market trends and identifying potential opportunities is crucial for making informed decisions. One such opportunity currently presenting itself is the bearish setup on GBP/JPY, indicating a significant shift in momentum. As the price of GBP/JPY reached the 193.000 value, it coincided with the 78.8% Fibonacci level, marking a critical point of confluence. This convergence suggests a strong resistance level, indicating a potential reversal in the upward trend. Analyzing the price action and technical indicators, it appears that a bearish impulse is likely to follow. The confirmation of this downward movement is supported by our previous analysis of this currency pair, which highlighted 189.000 as the first target for a bearish trend. This analysis underscores the importance of understanding key technical levels and their significance in predicting market movements. The confluence of the 193.000 value with the 78.8% Fibonacci level serves as a strong indication of impending bearish momentum. Traders and investors should closely monitor the price action of GBP/JPY in the coming days, as it is likely to follow a downward trajectory towards the 189.000 target. Our Previous Idea
Short
by FOREXN1
3
AUDJPY - Are You Ready⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 AUDJPY has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge pattern in blue. Currently, AUDJPY is in a correction phase, approaching the lower bound of the wedge. Moreover , it is retesting a strong demand in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower blue trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #AUDJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
8
GBPJPY - Trend-Following Setup!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 GBPJPY has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue. Currently, GBPJPY is in a correction phase, approaching the lower bound of the wedge. Moreover, it is retesting a strong support in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #GBPJPY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
USDJPY Top of Channel Up. Sell signal.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Currently it is about to exhaust the 2nd Bullish Leg of this Channel as it approaches its top (Higher Highs trend-line). It begun with a Low on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and then a Higher Low on the 1D MA200. With the 1D RSI overbought for the first time since July 05 2023, we are turning bearish on USDJPY after a long time but only for the short-term. Our target is 146.500 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
USDJPY Eyes Upside Potential Following CPI Data BoostAttention Traders, In today's trading session, we're closely observing USDJPY, pinpointing a potential buying opportunity around the 152.900 zone. USDJPY maintains its uptrend trajectory, currently navigating a correction phase as it approaches the critical 152.900 support and resistance area. Adding depth to our analysis, let's delve into the fundamental landscape. Recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showcases an upward trend in inflation. Comparing the CPI figures from recent months reveals a gradual increase: Mar 12, 2024: 0.4% Feb 13, 2024: 0.4% Jan 11, 2024: 0.3% Dec 12, 2023: 0.3% Nov 14, 2023: 0.2% The latest CPI data, released yesterday on April 10th, reported a year-over-year increase of 3.5% in March, surpassing February's pace of 3.2% and economist expectations of 3.4%. Notably, this robust inflation rate was fueled by rises in housing and gasoline costs. This acceleration in inflation can have significant implications for the US Dollar's strength. Higher inflation tends to bolster the USD as it prompts expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve to curb inflationary pressures. Consequently, investors may flock to the USD, anticipating higher interest rates in the future, which could drive USDJPY upwards. As we navigate today's market, it's essential to factor in both technical and fundamental aspects. The potential buying opportunity in USDJPY at 152.900 aligns with the bullish sentiment driven by inflation data and the broader uptrend. Trade wisely, Joe
Long
by JoeChampion
CHFJPY: Rising on the 1D MA200.CHFJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.785, MACD = -0.360, ADX = 31.970) as the price action is ranged between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. The dominant pattern is a Channel Up however and with the price rebounding on the 1D MA200 (unbroken since March 29 2023) and the 1D MACD has formed a Bullish Cross, we expect the new HH leg to start. Our target is the R1 level (TP = 171.500). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
JPY Pairs at a Crossroads: Should You Trade or Wait?The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been making waves in the forex market, but not necessarily in a good way. Major JPY pairs like USDJPY, EURJPY, and AUDJPY have all found themselves in a tense standoff with resistance levels for nearly a week now. This has many traders wondering: is it time to jump in, or should we wait for a clearer signal? **The Resistance Tug-of-War:** Imagine these JPY pairs as tug-of-war teams, locked in a battle at a specific price point. This price point is the resistance level – a zone where buyers and sellers clash. For the past week, these pairs have been testing this resistance, with high trading volume indicating strong forces on both sides. **Why the Wait Might Be Wise:** While a potential downward move for these JPY pairs seems likely, there are strong reasons to hold off on a trade just yet. Here's why: * **False Breakouts:** Resistance levels are like bullies – they often try to intimidate price by holding it back. Sometimes, price might even experience a false breakout, surging past resistance only to fall back down. Waiting for a confirmed breakout with significant trading volume helps avoid entering a trade based on a false signal. * **Unexpected Reversals:** Even if these JPY pairs do manage to break resistance initially, there's always a chance they could reverse course. Imagine the tug-of-war team on the other side suddenly gaining strength and pulling the rope back. Waiting for sustained movement above resistance after a breakout can help you avoid getting caught in a whipsaw (rapid price swings in both directions). **Patience is a Virtue (and a Trading Strategy):** Your cautious approach of waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown with good volume in the JPY pairs demonstrates sound trading discipline. This will help you manage risk and potentially identify better entry points for your trades. **The Takeaway:** The current situation with the JPY pairs presents an interesting technical puzzle. While the potential for a downward move exists, waiting for confirmation through a clear breakout or breakdown with high volume is the more prudent strategy. This can help you avoid unnecessary risk and potentially position yourself for more profitable trades in the future. **Remember:** This is a technical analysis based on the current market conditions. Before making any trading decisions, consider other factors like economic data, central bank policy announcements, and major news events.
by OMGiTzREALHASSAN
UJStill holding a buy, moved SL in profit. With the current price movement we might get stopped out. DAILY 151.90, we finally broke and closed above. We are now either waiting for the further bullish push up or the retest so we can enter on the continuation. This is the highest price UJ has been peaked at, so we know the dollar is doing quite well. 4H 152.80 gave us a form of support and we have been going up. Yet we wait and watch as it could shoot up and create new supports or breakdown to retest old resistance as supports. 1H We are seeing a test candle which is a form of reversal so stay watching for that. 152.80 is our support for either a breakdown or reject and shoot up. 15Min
Long
by Mhangwane1
AUDJPY: Today's decline is a buy opportunity.AUDJPY is borderline bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.140, MACD = 0.500, ADX = 22.883) as today it has erased the gains of almost the past 3 days. As it approaches the 1D MA50, it is turning into a buy opportunity inside a double Channel Up pattern. At 99.000 we are turning bullish again and will aim for a +2.65% increase (TP = 101.700) for a HH. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
Buy EURJPY Bullish ChannelThe EUR/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential buying opportunity due to the presence of a well-defined bullish channel pattern. This pattern suggests ongoing buying pressure and a higher likelihood of further gains in the coming minutes or hours. Key Points: Buy Entry: Consider entering a long position (buying) above the broken resistance level of the channel, ideally around 164.75. This offers an entry point close to the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: Initial bullish targets lie at the previous resistance levels within the channel, now acting as potential support zones: 165.40: This represents the first level of resistance within the channel. 165.70: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement before the breakout. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the channel, ideally around 164.50. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back downwards. Thank you
Long
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
8
Yen Bear Onslaught Tests Resolve at 152, Intervention LoomsThe Japanese Yen finds itself in a precarious position, facing the strongest selling pressure in 17 years. Net yen shorts, a measure of bearish bets, have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 2007 . This relentless shorting comes as the Yen precariously approaches a key psychological barrier: 152 Yen per US Dollar. A Perfect Storm for the Yen Several factors are fueling the Yen's decline: • Central Bank Tug-of-War: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stubbornly clings to its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero. This starkly contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which is aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation. This disparity makes the US Dollar a far more attractive investment for yield-hungry traders. • Double-Edged Sword: A weaker Yen benefits Japanese exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, the boon for exporters translates to pain for consumers, as imports become significantly more expensive. Intervention: A Looming Wildcard The Japanese government has a well-established history of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. With the currency teetering near 152, a level considered a potential trigger for intervention, all eyes are on the BOJ's next move. Their recent warnings about intervention haven't deterred the bears, adding another layer of intrigue. Will the Bears Breach the 152 Fortress? The record-high short positions suggest investors are firmly convinced the Yen will weaken further. A break below 152 could trigger a domino effect of selling, accelerating the Yen's decline. However, a few factors could offer the Yen some respite: • Intervention by the BOJ: The government might decide to step in and buy Yen to stabilize the currency, especially if the decline becomes disorderly. • Profit-taking: As the Yen weakens, some short-sellers may choose to lock in their profits, potentially alleviating some downward pressure. Trading the Yen: A Delicate Dance The Yen's future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here's how traders can navigate this volatile market: • Stay Glued to Geopolitical and Economic News: Monitor US interest rate decisions, BOJ policy announcements, and any signs of intervention by the Japanese government. • Technical Analysis is Your Ally: Utilize TradingView's advanced charting tools to identify potential support and resistance levels for the Yen. • Risk Management is Paramount: The Yen market is highly volatile. Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses. Disclaimer This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Potential bearish dropEURJPY is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from tis level to our take profit Entry: 165.193 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level Stop loss: 165.775 Why we like it: There is a resistance which lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension Take profit: 163.472 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EUR/JPY minor short(4/9/2024)Today, the EUR/JPY price rose in the early morning, and right now the price made a good rejection from the 165.1 zone. this rejection could lead to further downward movement after a short retracement. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Short
by fortunamarkets
China - U.S. War Preparations!We are still at the start phase of the China - U.S. war & seeing it slowly brew into something bigger. 2025 - 2026 should be when we see a full out war, weather that's a physical war, economical war or a cyber war. Ahead of this war it'll be interesting to see how China prepares for sanctions from western nations; ⭕️Which financial asset classes they divert into. ⭕️Which industries they become reliant on. ⭕️Which countries they turn into allies.
TVC:DXYLong
by BA_Investments
Buy CHFJPY Triangle BreakoutThe CHF/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potentially interesting situation with a triangle breakout pattern. Potential Long Trade : Entry: Above the broken resistance line of the triangle, ideally around 167.60 after confirmation. Target Levels: 168.75: This represents the height of the triangle, measured from the apex (highest or lowest point) to the base (opposite trendline), projected upwards from the breakout point. 169.18: This is a further extension of the upside target, based on the height of the recent price movement. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the broken resistance line of the triangle, ideally around 167.45. This helps limit potential losses if the price fails to break out and reverses downwards. Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
7
Potential bearish reversalAUDJPY is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance level and could reverse from this level to our take profit Entry: 100.359 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level Stop loss: 100.699 Why we like it: There is a resistance at the 127.2% Fibonacci extension Take profit: 99.235 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EURJPY: Bullish on a 4H MA50 rebound.EURJPY has turned bullish on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 65.893, MACD = 0.220, ADX = 54.338) as the 4H MA50 held and supported a new 2 day rally since Friday. The dominant pattern is a 3 month Channel Up, which makes a HH on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The 4H MACD is identical to the pre-High consolidation of the past bullish waves. We are bullish (TP = 166.500). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
USDJPY H8 - Sell SignalUSDJPY H8 We were following USDJPY last week and this was something that unfolded nicely for us after a little bit of patience, profit was taken, risk was mitigated and we pushed back to entry following a stronger dollar during the NFP event on Friday. We are now pushing to the extreme levels of our major resistance price. Slightly south of 152 for the moment. But the whole number could be a good price to see a final attempt at shorts. Remember, we haven’t traded north of 152 for over 3 decades. 34 years! Opened stop loss a little here compared to previous measures, could certainly be worth a final shot. Offering between 10-15R.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX