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Charting USDJPY: A Comprehensive Fundamental ExaminationGreetings Traders, In the current trading session, our focus is squarely on USDJPY, where we are actively evaluating a potential selling opportunity around the 143.300 zone. As USDJPY navigates a downtrend, the ongoing correction phase places it in proximity to the trend at the pivotal 143.300 support and resistance area. This analysis takes a deep dive into the fundamental landscape, delving into key indicators such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Commencing with the FOMC, the most recent meeting held on December 13, 2023, maintained the interest rate at 2.00%. While the rate itself remains stable, the accompanying rhetoric from the Federal Reserve has exhibited a consistently dovish tone. The central bank's commitment to supporting economic growth amidst inflationary pressures suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy. This dovish stance has potential ramifications for USDJPY, as a weaker dollar could contribute to further downsides. Shifting our attention to the CPI data, the latest figures indicate a year-over-year inflation rate of 1.2% for October 25, 2023. This marks a slight increase from the previous 0.8%, though still below the FOMC's target. The easing inflation is a critical factor influencing the dovish stance, allowing the Federal Reserve flexibility in its approach to interest rates. Analyzing the interest rate differentials between the United States and Japan further amplifies the potential for USD weakness. As of December 14, 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate stands at 2.00%, whereas the Bank of Japan has maintained a consistent interest rate of -0.10%. This stark contrast highlights the divergence in monetary policy approaches, potentially placing downward pressure on the USDJPY pair. Considering the technical downtrend in USDJPY and the dovish fundamentals, traders must exercise caution and consider the broader economic context. The interplay of interest rates, inflation, and central bank policies creates a nuanced environment that demands a comprehensive understanding for informed decision-making. In conclusion, as we monitor USDJPY for a selling opportunity around the 143.300 zone, the confluence of FOMC decisions, CPI data, and interest rate differentials underscores the potential for USD weakness. Traders are urged to approach this opportunity with a keen awareness of the intricate interplay between technical and fundamental factors shaping the currency pair. Best of luck in your trades, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
1
USDJPY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Is it going to be the same story again for the USDJPY? In 2022, the USDJPY climbed to reach just below 152 before turning down to the 128 support level. The similar price movement played out in 2023 as the USDJPY rose from the 128 support level to retest the 152 resistance level. The USDJPY has reversed down to the 140 price area (50% Fibonacci retracement level), primarily due to the weakness of the DXY as markets began to price in rate cut scenarios from the US Federal Reserve. This move lower was also due to rumors that the BoJ could end its ultra-loose monetary policy at the December 2023 meeting. However, the BoJ has so far maintained its current policy stance as it continues the fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target level. The longer the BoJ persists with its negative rates regime in 2024, this could continue to bring weakness to the Yen. Combined with some retracement on the DXY, the USDJPY could retest the 143-144 price area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) in the short term. Look for the BoJ to signal a plan for policy normalization in 2024, to lead to further downside. However, it'll be crucial for the USDJPY to break below the 138-round number support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before we can see a significant downside to the 128-support level again.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USD/JPY: Yen Strengthens Amid Policy ExpectationsThe Japanese Yen gains support from anticipated BoJ policy shifts, fostering a safer environment and limiting USD/JPY within lower USD demand. Investor focus on US economic data before FOMC minutes remains crucial. Technically, breaching the 200-day SMA signals a USD/JPY downtrend. Daily chart indicators suggest potential further losses. Any upward movement could prompt selling near 142.00, leading to short-term profit-taking around 142.40 and targeting the 200-day SMA at 143.00. Support lies at 141.00, guarding against declines toward recent lows near 140.25 and the psychological level of 140.00. A firm break below 141.00 may accelerate a decline towards 139.35, aiming for levels near 139.00, 138.75, and 138.00 (the July 28th low).
by Larissa-Trader
USD/JPY: Earthquake Fallout and Technical Signals Shape Trading USD/JPY: Earthquake Fallout and Technical Signals Shape Trading Dynamics The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces early selling pressure on the first trading day of 2024, weighed down by the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in central Japan. This unfortunate event, coupled with a recovering US Dollar (USD) and rising US Treasury bond yields, contributes to the USD/JPY pair distancing itself from recent lows. Earthquake Impact and Thin Trading Volumes: The seismic tremors in central Japan cast a shadow on the domestic currency, influencing market sentiment in a day marked by relatively thin trading volumes. The immediate impact on the Japanese Yen underscores the complexities of external factors impacting currency movements, adding a layer of unpredictability to the trading landscape. Technical Analysis and Bearish Signals: Examining the technical landscape, the USD/JPY pair remains ensconced within a bearish channel. Notably, the price appears to be consolidating in a range suggestive of a Bearish flag. Analysts are eyeing this pattern as a precursor to a potential fresh bearish impulse, particularly around the resistance area highlighted in the chart. The prevailing idea is one of bearish continuation in the short term. BoJ Policy Expectations: Amid the current dynamics, it's important to consider the expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy stance. While external factors weigh on the Yen, expectations of an imminent policy shift by the BoJ act as a mitigating factor, potentially limiting deeper losses for the Japanese currency. Our preference Short positions below 143.000 with targets at 139.90 & 138.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USDJPY Looking BearishOn the Monthly chart, this pair is currently retracing bearish inside a Bullish PB. On the Weekly, we can see that this pair is in a large bearish grind. We sent out a bearish analysis a few weeks back. If you didn't see it, be sure to take a look at it. Let's go further down in our analysis of this pair. On the Daily Chart, this pair has continued its bearish push, and it is currently holding 3 PBs to the downside. The story is not different on the 4-hour chart. The market is making 5 PB down on the 4 hour chart, and 4 PB down on the 1 hour chart. It is not very often to find a pair that aligns on bias across all of its timeframes. Here is a rare exception. To take our trade, we will be waiting for price to retrace bullish into our refined zone. When that happens, we will look to jump on the trade using the Panz Pips trader checklist.
Short
by PanzyPips
CHFJPY Short Idea Intra-day trading 4H entry TFHappy New Year Guys! Its your girl Forex Potatoe we smash the charts and here we are in 2024 ready to smash it again!. CHF JPY has been in a prolonged uptrend and showing weakness as buyers are beginning to loose steam and momentum slowing down from buyers side. Price broke weekly and daily lows and currently bias changed to Sell on 3 TimeFrames. What i hope to see before entering this trade is the trendline broken (which has broken a bit), i also need to see the support broken and the last low taken out before i'd be interested in taking a sell. I Predict CHFJPY sells to the TP point on the last Low. Kindly follow me as i would be breaking down my analysis from time to time and posting videos as well mostly for beginners and intermediate traders that need to understand market structure, and how to execute trades. My goal is to simplify the charts and smash it so you can be a better traders Tell me what you think about this idea.
Short
by ForexPotatoe
Cad/Jpy bounce backTrade Idea for CADJPY Bias: Very Bullish Overall Score: 9 Commitment of Traders (COT) Bias: 3 Institutional traders are showing a robust bullish sentiment towards CADJPY, indicating a forecast of continued upside. Retail Sentiment: 1 Retail traders appear to be bearish on CADJPY. Given the tendency for retail traders to often be on the losing side, their bearish sentiment serves as a contrarian bullish signal for us, supporting our bullish view. Seasonality: 1 Current seasonal trends favor a bullish momentum for CADJPY. Trend Reading: 2 CADJPY is on an upward trajectory, further underscoring the bullish momentum. GDP Growth: -1 A slight negative in GDP growth, but the dominant bullish indicators more than compensate for this. Inflation: 2 Inflation metrics are aligning favorably, adding to the bullish outlook. Unemployment: 0 Unemployment figures are neutral and do not sway our primary bullish perspective. Interest Rates: 1 Interest rate dynamics are pointing to CADJPY strength. Additional Factor: Increasing Oil Prices Canada's role as a major oil exporter means rising oil prices often buoy the CAD. This backdrop solidifies our bullish stance on CADJPY. Conclusion: With a mix of strong bullish indicators, particularly the COT bias, retail sentiment (considered contrarily), trend direction, and rising oil prices, CADJPY appears poised for bullish movement. LIKE and FOLLOW to stay updated for more ideas like this
Long
by Elite_Forex
Usdjpy looks to break further...Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. As mentioned in my previous 2 articles which you can find the link below, daily trend of UJ seems to be turning lower. though the japanese boj has yet to carry out much actions, chart is still showing bearish signal from daily to h1. bias still to short. Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
2
Navigating Trends:USDJPY Selling Opportunity Amid inflation easeThe current downtrend of USDJPY reflects a sustained downward trajectory, with the currency pair currently navigating a correction phase. This correction is steadily approaching the trend at the critical 142 support and resistance area, a numerical level of historical significance. The convergence at this juncture presents an opportune moment where the ongoing correction may interact with substantial market forces, potentially offering strategic entry points for traders. Delving into the macroeconomic landscape, the recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reveals a noteworthy trend of easing inflation. Examining the data points from October 25, 2023, where the actual inflation rate of 1.2% surpassed the forecast of 1.1% and the previous 0.8%, it becomes apparent that inflation figures have been gradually moderating over recent quarters. This evolving inflation scenario may significantly influence the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the upcoming meetings. As we look ahead, the expectation is that the FOMC could adopt a dovish stance, given the trend of easing inflation. These insights gleaned from the shared CPI data present a compelling narrative, suggesting a potential weakness in the dollar in the early months of the next year. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
Aussie Yen: Bullish Outlook as BOJ Maintains Ultra-Loose PolicyHi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on FX:AUDJPY ! The AUD/JPY pair has consistently established higher highs and higher lows, successfully surpassing the EMA200 Line. This upward shift above the EMA200 line unequivocally signals a bullish trend. Subsequently, it formed a symmetrical triangle pattern and decisively breached the upper trendline of this configuration. Such a breakout typically serves as confirmation of a potential upward movement toward the designated target. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Fundamental Driver On Dec 19, The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to maintain its overnight interest rates at minus 0.1% and has made no changes to its yield curve controls. Governor Kazuo Ueda, in a press conference after the BoJ's last meeting of 2023, acknowledged an improved outlook for achieving the inflation target but emphasized that the central bank is not currently prepared to outline an exit strategy from its ultra-loose monetary policy. The governor cited a lack of urgency to adjust policy before the US Federal Reserve potentially considers cutting rates in the coming year. The decision has led to a decrease in the value of the yen, supporting the potential bull run of Aussie Yen. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Aussie Yen." Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
USD/JPY hits 5-month low due to Fed policy divergenceJPY's rally benefited from hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda when he emphasized policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ. USDJPY is falling again after 2 consecutive sessions of increase. Technical indicators show that the downward momentum is still strong. The key resistance to watch is the 200-day MA at 142.75, with further targets at 143 and 144. On the contrary, if the price can be maintained below this mark, the downtrend will be consolidated. Sellers may aim for the 141.90/85 area, followed by the multi-month bottom at 141 established last week, support at 140.45 and the 140 mark.
Long
by TrategySherpa
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution..USD/JPY Under Pressure: Dovish Fed Outlook and BoJ's Caution Fuel Bearish Momentum The USD/JPY pair continues to experience losses as the US Dollar (USD) weakens, influenced by the dovish outlook presented by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the first quarter of 2024. The recent decline gained momentum on Friday, triggered by softer domestic consumer inflation data, amplifying uncertainty regarding the potential timing of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tightening its ultra-loose policy. Minutes from the BoJ's October monetary policy meeting further indicated a commitment to maintaining the current accommodative stance, putting additional downward pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Market Developments: As the USD/JPY pair trades lower around 140.70 during the early European session on Thursday, attention is drawn to the psychological areas of 141.00 and 141.600, which now pose as immediate resistance levels. The next significant barrier is identified at the 142.00 level, suggesting that the pair faces an uphill struggle in its attempt to reverse the prevailing bearish sentiment. Technical Analysis and Correlation: Building on our technical analysis and considering the correlation with the EUR/USD pairs, the outlook for USD/JPY points towards a continuation of the bearish momentum. The dovish Fed stance and cautious BoJ approach contribute to the prevailing downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, emphasizing the potential for further losses in the near term. Looking Ahead: The uncertainty surrounding the timing of the BoJ's policy tightening and the dovish tone from the Fed are likely to remain key drivers for the USD/JPY pair. Traders and investors will closely monitor any developments in monetary policy discussions and economic indicators that could offer insights into the future direction of the currency pair. As the USD/JPY pair faces resistance levels and grapples with the repercussions of dovish central bank outlooks, the bearish momentum seems poised to persist. The interplay between the Federal Reserve's stance and the Bank of Japan's cautious approach sets the stage for continued volatility in the pair. As market participants navigate these dynamics, the focus remains on potential opportunities arising from the evolving conditions in the currency markets. Our preference Short positions below 143.00 with targets at 139.90 & 138.50 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Approaches 141.30, Extending Two-Day Decline USD/JPY continues its downward trend for the second consecutive session, trading below the 141.30 level during the Asian hours on Thursday. Improved trade data from Japan in November has exerted pressure on the currency pair. However, less optimistic remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda may weigh on the Japanese Yen. From a technical standpoint, the spot price indicates potential recovery below the 142.00 level and appears to have broken the two-day decline. This suggests that breaking below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crucial support for bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart remain deeply in negative territory, indicating limited resistance for USD/JPY on the downside. Any subsequent upward movement may still be viewed as a selling opportunity and is likely to be capped around the 142.75 level (200-day SMA). This implies that further buying activity leading to a move beyond the 143.00 level could trigger short-covering actions, allowing the bullish camp to reclaim the 144.00 milestone. On the flip side, weakness below the Asian session's lowest levels around the 141.90-141.85 region would reaffirm the short-term trend and make USD/JPY susceptible to retesting below the 141.00 level, or the multi-month lows touched last week. Subsequent declines could potentially pull the spot price towards the intermediate support at 140.45 on the way to the psychological level of 140.00.
by AdmamTrade
NZDJPY Pump and dump in action.The NZDJPY pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern using the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a pivot point as of late. We can see a diverging (dotted) Channel Up that has priced the recent Higher Highs as well as being supported by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has rebounded on the 39.90 Support level, which is where the last two Higher Lows has been priced, while the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. This is a buy signal and our target is the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the dotted Channel Up at 91.800. We are waiting for a sell after the 1D RSI gets rejected near the 73.40 Resistance, and we will target the bottom of the longer term Channel Up at 88.900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Japanese Yen Weakens on Soft Inflation, BoJ Policy UncertaintyThe Japanese Yen (JPY) faced a decline after softer domestic consumer inflation data, raising uncertainties about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) potential policy tightening. BoJ's October meeting minutes revealed a consensus to maintain the accommodative policy, contributing to JPY weakness. The USD/JPY pair saw a modest recovery from weekly lows, supported by the USD's modest strength. Japan's core CPI remains at 2% for the 20th consecutive month, and optimism about future wage growth suggests a potential shift in BoJ's stance. However, the market anticipates a more positive U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing in 2024, influenced by the U.S. Q3 GDP report. Investors are now watching the U.S. Core PCE Price Index for further guidance on USD/JPY short-term direction. Despite this, the fundamental outlook leans towards JPY strength, indicating a downside bias for the currency pair.
by Larissa-Trader