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USD/JPY Hits Six-Week Low Near 148.50, Faces Key SupportThe USD/JPY pair remains under selling pressure for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest point since October 4 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. However, the spot price has slightly rebounded in the past few hours and is trading around the 148.00 level. USD/JPY continues to trade near its lowest level in six weeks, extending losses to around 148.90 in the early European trading session on Monday. The key level of 148.50 emerges as immediate support, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% at 148.49. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 signals a bearish sentiment, potentially inspiring bearish moves towards the support zone around 146.50, followed by the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% at 146.37. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned above the centerline, showing divergence below the signal line, often indicating a downward price trend. This configuration suggests that the short-term moving average (MACD line) is moving further away from the long-term moving average (signal line) in a downward direction. On the flip side, the psychological level at 150.00 may act as a significant barrier, corresponding with the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 150.34. A breakthrough above this level could support a USD/JPY rebound towards last week's high at 151.90.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
JPY Declines on Q3 GDP Loss.Japan's GDP for Q3 2023 has absolutely crashed by -2.1%. After a very good Q1 & Q2 growth, the markets & economy caught onto what was really happening. They unloaded the magical money printer… They printed out a ton of new money to prop up their economy. This has been exposed by their consumer spending collapsing. With inflation high, consumers have less to spend which is affecting their GDP this quarter. So after the fake ‘demand’ presented in Q1 & Q2, the economy can no longer keep up the facade from money printing.
PEPPERSTONE:JPYXShort
by BA_Investments
NZDJPY approaching previous support.NZDJPY - 24h expiry The correction lower is assessed as being complete. Further upside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Momentum is flat, highlighting the lack of clear direction. A move through 89.50 will confirm the bullish momentum. We look to Buy at 89.00 (stop at 88.60) Our profit targets will be 90.00 and 90.20 Resistance: 89.50 / 89.75 / 90.00 Support: 89.25 / 89.00 / 88.75 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
What Next For The Yen?In Karate, offense is the best form of defence. The BoJ knows it. Japan faces a raft of economic headwinds which shows up in Yen’s performance. The BoJ intervened strongly last year to support the currency when it skirted around current levels. Yen is hovering at those levels again. BoJ is anticipated to act. Such interventions typically mark the bottom. This paper explores recent economic data to analyse the potential for monetary policy changes by BOJ. JAPANESE MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS HAMPER YEN FROM STRENGTHENING Starting September, the Yen has trended lower relative to the USD among currency majors. The Yen has weakened the most. As described previously , BoJ’s aims to kickstart the economy onto a high growth trajectory to exit decades of painful deflation. Recent macroeconomic data indicates weakness. This reaffirms the need for continued loose monetary policy. However, a frail Yen poses a different type of challenge for the BoJ with higher import costs for fresh food and fuel. This leaves the BoJ in a predicament between loose monetary policy and intervention to support the Yen. What does recent inflation, GDP, and wage data point to? Inflation Inflation declined M-o-M in September. CPI cooled to 2.8% falling below 3% for the first time in a year. Importantly, Japan’s producer prices are now below 2% in a sign that inflation might have peaked. Consumer prices will fail to prevail above 4% for long with input prices moderating. The BoJ expects inflation to persist until March next year at current levels and to cool towards target rates in the following 12 months. GDP Growth The Japanese economy shrank 2.1% YoY in Q3. This is far below expectations of 0.6% decline and a sharp slowdown from +4.5% growth in Q2. Slow economic growth makes economic stimulus essential to sustain it. Wages Nominal wage growth continues to decline. Real wages are even more concerning. Wages have declined for the last 18 months when adjusted for inflation. Next Shunto negotiations are set to complete by mid-Jan 2024 with outcome remaining uncertain. The BoJ highlighted that wage uncertainties and price-setting behaviour pose upside risk to prices. Meanwhile, high inflation will keep impacting real wages, affecting people's ability to spend. THE BANK OF JAPAN IS STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE At the October monetary policy meeting, the BoJ announced changes to the bond yield cap. The Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and range were kept unchanged. However, a small modification was made to change the 1% JGB yield cap from a rigid one to a loose reference. These changes hint at BoJ setting itself up for the eventual roll-back of the YCC policy altogether. Next BoJ policy meeting is set for December 19th. The BoJ will likely maintain stimulus and hold rates low amid feeble consumer & business spending. The policy change will be through YCC dismantling, impacting the JGB market. It will require careful planning and deft timing. Meanwhile, the BoJ may intervene to stem continued Yen weakness. The officials have expressed this sentiment over the last two weeks via warnings for participants shorting the Yen over the past two weeks. Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervened three times last year, injecting USD 68 billion to support the Yen when it was trading near 150/USD. These interventions, unannounced, led to sharp and unexpected currency moves. Unlike previous exchange rate-based interventions, the BoJ’s current predicament revolves around volatility and public perception. Reuters reports that if Japan aims to prevent yen appreciation, the MoF will issue short-term bills to raise Yen, which is then sold in the market to weaken the currency. Alternatively, to curb Yen depreciation, authorities will tap into Japan's FX reserves, exchanging dollars for the Yen. In recent weeks, Japanese authorities have issued warnings and expressed readiness to intervene as the Yen continues to weaken, despite a moderating USD. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency official, emphasized the urgency of their judgments and the potential for intervention, resonating with rhetorics used a year ago. MIXED SIGNALS FROM CURRENCY DERIVATIVES MARKETS Although asset managers are not positioned as net short as they were in late-September, they increased their net short positioning (weakening Yen) last Tuesday. Similarly, leveraged funds also increased net short positioning sharply last week. Options markets contrarily signal strength in the Yen. P/C ratio for CME Japanese Yen Options (JPU) is 0.42 implying two puts for every five calls. JPUs are quoted with the Yen as the base currency so call options express a view of the Yen strengthening. Moreover, bullish bets have increased heavily over the past week. Specifically, nearest monthly and weekly contracts (JPZ3 and WJ4X3) show Yen strengthening in the near term. Bullish bets in December options outnumber bearish bets by three times. Although put open interest (OI) is concentrated near current levels with the highest OI at 0.0066 (151 in USD/JPY), call OI is more spread across with a large OI at strike of 0.0069 (145 in USD/JPY) which has ballooned over the last week. This signals that options market expects Yen strengthening by next month. Finally, implied volatility on JPU is near its lowest level since March 2022. Source: CME CVOL Options skew on JPU is close to one, indicating that premiums on calls and puts are equally priced. Convexity remains elevated signalling investor interest in OTM options suggesting likelihood of sharp moves ahead. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Given 12-month low implied volatility, a position in JPU can yield cost-effective protection against sharp Yen moves. Alternatively, with the anticipated stability in Japanese interest rates, a short futures position in CME Japanese Yen futures, as previously discussed in a paper , is a viable approach to capitalizing on Yen's expected weakening. We can tap into JPU to safeguard this position against unforeseen risks of yen strengthening from BoJ intervention. Furthermore, CME offers weekly options for Japanese Yen futures, expiring from Monday through Friday of the week. This enables investors to attain short-term exposure on a more focused scale, accompanied by lower premiums compared to monthly options. A long call option position in JPUZ3 (expiring on December 8) would benefit from a BoJ intervention. The trade setup consists of an entry at a strike of 0.0068 (JPY 147.0588) in JPUZ3 call options. These options are at a delta of 25 and expire in 30 days providing a good trade-off between low premium and adequate exposure to the underlying. As of settlement on November 17th, premium for these options stood at USD 245 at an implied volatility of 8.26%. Source: CME Options Calculator The position breaks even at 0.00682 (JPY 146.6275) and turns profitable when (a) underlying futures price increases above strike price, and/or (b) implied volatility increases. Source: CME QuikStrike MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. 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CME:6J1!Long
by mintdotfinance
GBPJPY possible reversal After price broke our daily high with momentum,it began to gradually retrace back into an internal structure demand that caused the break of this high. It tapped it,luring in early buyers before it smashed through it with momentum. This signaled a potential shift of internal structure direction as the demand zone was invalidated. We get more confirmation from observing that there is clear double bottom liquidity that was left behind, together with a huge imbalance below it. These are all things that price will have to eventually target and now could be the time because our daily high liquidity was swept, so the failure of the demand zone could result in a flip that would surely push price deep down to clear all internal liquidity and imbalances left behind during higher timeframe expansion.
Short
by BlackTygaTrades
1
USDJPY: Trendline breakout, wait for retestLooks like USDJPY has broken down through the rising trendline, there was a slight recovery at the backend of Friday, this indicates we could see a short retracement from here to test the trendline break, and then down. The Yen performed well at the start of Friday, I don't believe this was BoJ intervention, as they have said that they expect the fundamentals to play out - we'll see, bad data from JPY this week may necessitate intervention, however good data on Friday (PMI) will I think be enough to start the recovery process for the Yen. If Japan looks like it's going to have a soft landing then I think markets will reward the Yen with a more positive sentiment and this could mean we get a lot of good action for these crosses. I think the USD is done being bullish for now (even the hawkish speakers cannot convince the markets), so either way I think we'll see this pair fall, so monitoring LTF's for a suitable entry / rejection from the retest point. A break below 148.5 will see a more sustained move to the downside, imho.
Short
by Finchcliffe
USDJPY 19/11/23USD JPY in a bearish range as it was from Thursday we created our swing low and confirmed our swim pines we're now waiting for every sweep of the swing high for continuations down or a break out of this range lower which we can then continue to follow into this new bearish range. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
by rosshayes
USDJPY: Important Key Levels to Watch 🇺🇸🇯🇵 USDJPY started to fall rapidly. Here are the important key levels to watch. Vertical Structures Vertical Resistance 1: Broken rising trend line Horizontal Structures: Support 1: 148.75 - 149.21 area Support 2: 148.15 - 148.50 area Support 3: 147.41 - 147.56 area Resistance 1: 150.05 - 150.38 area Resistance 2: 151.71 - 151.94 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
"USD/JPY Holds Near Yearly Highs, Trading Around 151.70"The USD/JPY pair regains positive momentum, partially reversing significant losses from the previous day, returning to the 150.15 zone, the week's lowest level. Intraday buying activity intensified after Japan's GDP print fell below expectations, pushing the spot price to new daily highs. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair maintains its yearly high and has the potential to surpass these levels if the U.S. Dollar (USD) successfully halts recent losses. However, the greenback is facing hurdles from the volatile yields of U.S. Treasury bonds. At the time of writing, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hovers around 4.63%.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EURJPY to continue in the upward move?EURJPY - 24h expiry We are trading at overbought extremes. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A lower correction is expected. We prefer to consider the medium term trend and expect buying interest to support as prices move lower. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 162.90 level. We look to Buy at 162.90 (stop at 162.30) Our profit targets will be 164.40 and 164.80 Resistance: 165.20 / 166.65 / 167.40 Support: 163.10 / 162.00 / 161.25 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
NZDJPY Short-term buyThe NZDJPY is trading within a Channel Up pattern and is currently on the latest bullish leg towards a new Higher High. All previous waves have been at least +6.12%, so that gives us still an opportunity to buy and target 92.150. If the RSI hits 73.40 before the target, close the buy regardless, as the 73.40 Resistance has formed the September 29 High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
USD/JPY Recovers from Recent Losses, Hovers Around 150.50"USD/JPY rebounds from recent losses observed in the previous session following weaker-than-expected US inflation data. However, the pair trades slightly higher around 150.60 in Asian trading on Wednesday. The USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuates around 151.70 in Tuesday's Asian session. The pair holds near yearly highs and has the potential to surpass these levels if the US Dollar (USD) successfully mitigates recent losses. Nevertheless, the greenback faces challenges from volatile US bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.63% at the time of writing.
by Gwen_Humuna
AUDJPY: Interesting zone, continue up or Double top reversal?We're at the top end of the range for this pair, I am expecting BoJ to start backing its currency. I've recently noticed some negative correlation between USDJPY and the other XXXJPY crosses, so where USDJPY falls the others have been more bullish. That said if the BoJ get involved it will tank all of them. I'm not 100% what I really think will happen here, I think the Friday pinbar suggests there's more upward momentum, but will be very cautious if I trade as anything against the Yen (@which is staggeringly weak against everything). I'm opting for a move up and would keep a tight and chasing SL in place.
Long
by Finchcliffe
1
GBPJPY to find sellers at market?GBPJPY - 24h expiry Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Previous resistance located at 185.89. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. We look to Sell at 185.90 (stop at 186.40) Our profit targets will be 184.70 and 184.40 Resistance: 186.75 / 189.15 / 190.40 Support: 184.90 / 183.40 / 182.40 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
2
YEN WATCH! 🧐Summary The Yen continues to weaken. The USDJPY is now at a 25-year high. The Details The Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention could happen any week, meaning some big moves on JPY pairs. I am expecting at least a 500 pip bearish move on USDJPY 💥 If there is no intervention, USDJPY may reach as high as 155-160 before the BOJ changes interest rates to strengthen the Yen. The JPY is weak across the board, especially against the FOREXCOM:CNHJPY PEPPERSTONE:CHFJPY and PEPPERSTONE:SGDJPY Things to Consider Don't over-leverage JPY long positions due to your FOMO Think longer-term. The intervention move could provide only temporary strength for the Yen. The BOJ may need to hike rates before the Yen forms its lows. An interest rate hike may not happen until Q1/Q2 2024.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
CADJPY Bullish as long as the 1D MA50 holds.The CADJPY pair is on a 1D MA50 (red trend-line) bounce, at the high ranges of the Fibonacci Channel Up that started on the March 2020 COVID crash bottom. The 1W RSI shows a Channel Down fractal on its second Lower Low rebound and the previous two such sequences delivered at least one more rally. As a result, we see a strong short term buy opportunity to target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 112.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
USD/JPY Extends Upside Momentum Beyond 151.00 Level The USD/JPY pair continues to trade positively for the sixth consecutive day during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The upward movement is supported by higher US Treasury bond yields and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The pair is currently hovering around the 151.70 mark, marking a 0.10% increase for the day. USD/JPY has sustained its winning streak, trading above 151.40 in early European trading on Friday. Unexpectedly hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell had a significant impact, boosting US Treasury bond yields and strengthening the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the Japanese government may consider interventions to limit the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair in response to these developments. Powell's statement at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) event on Thursday expressed concerns that the current policies may not be sufficient to curb inflation. This sentiment led to an increase in the US Dollar Index (DXY), fluctuating around 106.00, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield at 4.62% at the time of writing. Despite strong tightening policies from major central banks, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its accommodative stance. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Thursday that the central bank would cautiously approach exiting extremely loose monetary policies to prevent significant bond market disruptions. However, the Japanese Yen continues to face pressure as the plan to exit extremely loose policies may be delayed due to lower wage increases. Reasonable wage growth is considered a crucial factor for the Bank of Japan to contemplate an exit from prolonged loose monetary policies. Market participants closely monitor Fed's Logan speech and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November, seeking signals to identify trading opportunities in the USD/JPY pair.What do you think about this pair?
by Larissa-Trader
1