COT Strategy - SHORT JAPANESE YENDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for new short trades in 6J if we get additional bearish entry triggers (this week a divergence entry triggered short).
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Japaneseyenshort
HelenP. I Japanese Yen may exit wedge and to declineHi folks today I'm prepared for you JAPANESE YEN analytics. Last month, Japanese Yen dropped to the level of 129.65 and after the test started to move in an uptrend. Subsequently, the price reached the level of 137.75, from which it started to decline and made a deep correction. After retesting the trendline, the Japanese Yen continued the uptrend and broke through the resistance at level 137.75. Over a long period, the price has formed an ascending wedge, inside which it is now traded. The Japanese Yen reached resistance of wedge and formed a resistance zone of 138.55-138.95. Recently, the price retested the resistance of wedge and resistance zone and start to decline. It seems to me that the price may leave the ascending wedge and go down. The Japanese Yen could drop and break through support, so goals will be set at levels 137.75 and 137.75. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
USDJPY Short Because Technicals Flash Overbought, Yen Safe HavenUSDJPY has a number of trends going against it to force price action downwards. Technicals and fundamentals are not on the dollar's side against the yen. Traders can see a number of oscillators and MAs suggesting USDJPY is overbought and due for a reversal. Moreover and probably more impactful are the fundamentals of the global economy which suggest major growth centers (Europe and China) are slowing down. US treasury yields suggest we are heading towards a recession and US GDP growth is probably going to be less than previous quarter for the second quarter in a row. Because of this, the yen will be heavily invested into which will partially be a result of institutional hedging, partially Japanese capital flows returning to Japan. While the dollar will also benefit from this, it will probably not benefit as much as the yen in the short term since the US economy is still strong and many in the US still want to be exposed to risk-on assets like equity markets.
In spite of this, sentiment indicators suggest the yen is set for a bullish move, but this can quickly reverse. You can find that data here www.dailyfx.com and you can find more analysis of currencies and indexes here www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com