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KC1! Gold6.12.23 I probably should have made this Bobby's homework assignment..... I went back to take another look at gold to help me manage my Miserable state of mind... which was totally unnecessary. I added the coffee market which is moving beautifully... even though it got lower after the weekend. It's very important to understand the tools and went to take profits to avoid Drawdowns.... and also to allow you to take a profit.... let the market reverse... and then actually take a long trade. There will always be good decisions, Marginal decisions. and bad decisions<<<<Coupled with greed and fear. But this is why we use tools and strategies that help us sort it out. Everybody who trades... has losing trades.You learn to prepare for it. For example... when I go out to buy two pieces of pastry, not just one...AND A large cup of coffee... I bring some Pepto-Bismol To deal with any untoward consequences. Always be prepared.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
KC1!5.7.23 This is a review of the coffee market which is approaching A potential reversal area because it's coming close to a bearish gap lower. Really what you have to do Is watch the market when it's trading later today on Sunday or Monday when the volume of trade will be significant. I spent A good bit of time on this video to show you where there might be the potential of important Reversals if the market manages to trade higher to the 618 Retracement...This is interesting but not relevant to a trade ...if the market reaches this level.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
Bobby's Homework Assignment4.27.23 This video Is an analysis of coffee, but it is really an analysis of price action and reversal patterns for buyers and sellers. this market services buyers and sellers. The good buyers and the good sellers will make money in this market, and if you take a look at Trades that could have been taken if you could find the proper trade location... it might even be surprising how profitable these markets can be for both the buyers and the sellers. The biggest problem I had with my Trading was that I didn't want to accept that realization that something was going on with the market That was going to interrupt my trade and cost me money. Usually when this happens... for most Traders including myself it was very difficult to acknowledge it and then study the situation while the market was proceeding to lose me money because something had changed in the market. and this went on for a long time until I found a very simple solution: Stop day trading for a few years and figure out what the heck was going on... without the stress of losing money in the interim. Not only did I learn more, but I learned that the market will change direction and that it doesn't have to hurt me so consistently if I'm willing to change my paradigm once I understand how markets move before I lose my money. When you're losing money, the brain Stops working and it is nearly impossible to think with the same clarity that is needed to be profitable.... but this doesn't happen until you're in a state of mind that is more objective and is WILLING To observe... and that is NOT when you are losing money.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
Bobby's Homework Assignment2.18.23 It appears that coffee is going to trade higher. There is a particular ABCD pattern that suggests this. The critical pivot that allowed me to draw that pattern could have given me that clue. however, just after that clue appeared,, the market went a lot higher... not quite reaching the bearish gap lower, And then it moved all the way back to just about the gap that led to the substantial move Higher. In other words break out buyers move it a lot higher, And then the market Took out Most of those fires.... you would call it A wash and rinse.... and it might very well have you think that the Market's too bearish to move higher because the Lower Was so impressive...Many of the breakout buyers Exited the market and the thought that the market was going to go a lot higher it's either forgotten... or many Traders just don't want the risk to go along.... even though the tool that showed you it was likely to go higher has not been harmed in any way whatsoever because the correction lower actually takes you to a level that doesn't harm the reversal pattern and it fails to break below a support area or a 382. There is a Psychology for most people that they are more stressed Losing something that they feel was theirs ie. the market moves up Thousands of dollars for an unrealized profit, but then moves all the way back to break even... and they Are more traumatized by this then they are if they miss a trade of thousands of dollars.... even if both trade decisions lead to zero loss. There was a signal... in ABCD pattern Is that the market was going to trade considerably higher, But the market Attracted breakout fires first, And then it hurt those bars when the market came back to support... Making it very difficult for many traders To think about Going long after such a steep move higher and a steep correction lower. The Dynamics of this Are much greater than my description, but it's important to factor in human behavior and the things we naturally do that can actually be non-productive to our abilities to trade. once you get in trouble in a trade, it can throw you off and it can change your judgment about the market in non-productive ways.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
Coffee Bear flags. Reversals.11.21.22. First: Tradingviews discount offer is a fabulous offer. My advice is get the premium version and you're paying less than a dollar a day. And you really want the premium version! I used to Gift To one of my students since she's been my friend for over 40 years, and it's the reason why I started to show my charts on tradingview. The tradingview wouldn't let me do that last year, so I send money to my friend and tell her the check is on the way. But if they allow me to do this, I would have subscribed for two young men that are going to follow trading with me for a month or so, and I would have bought it for them. It's a great deal, even if tradingview doesn't want to do business with Santa Claus. This video is on coffee I was looking for a long trade to be triggered. It might have happened today, I'm not sure. I need to clarify something that I said in the video: I never short barre class. What I should have said: If I get long on a buying till add support, and the market goes higher, but then starts to go lower, and looks like it's going to turn into a bear flag, I might get out of my long trait before it hits my stop. That's what I should have said. What I did say and believe: I don't look at a fair flag so much as a bearish market, I look at it as a manifestation of buyers looking for the reversal, but they're just a little too early and they did have the right idea because markets that have bear flags are an early signal that the market may very well find a support and then give you a great Long trade In the near future. In other Buyers who get caught in a bear flag, had the right idea, but are just a little too early.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
ES1! KC1!9. 23. 22 This is an overview of the ES, which is going a lot lower. Coffee came back to support, but if you're willing to work hard, you could have made this a profitable day. There's also an overview of a bear market, which in real time is never that easy to trade. Generally, bear markets have to go low enough until the fires really give up. As the market moves lower from the top, buyers will step in and disrupt the downward movement of the market. It's very easy to get stopped out of a bear market in the beginning of the move lower.
ICEUS:KCZ2022
by ScottBogatin
Coffee follow up9. 22. 22 coffee: This is a fairly short video showing you the setup for how long trade. Some trades are harder than others, they're not all equal. If you are trading using scaling techniques, you may have more risk, can make a lot more money. Even though nothing is perfect there may be qualities to the market you are trading that can give you a sense that you may want to hey side of the market, it actually add risk to make more profit. And that's what I would do here...with caveats. Not all trades make money.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
3
Coffee part 29. 20. 22 As promised, this is part two of coffee. I would suggest that you spend some time mermaids 2 videos. did you do the work they should have some value. These are highly repeatable Patterns, and they should be thought of taking into account probability and risk. You would think that if a market opens on Monday and makes a new low...the market will probably move lower. However, you would be wrong, and you are subjecting yourself to a losing trade or a missed opportunity to go long Because you didn't factor in the importance obstruction, and the importance of buyers at that level. Everything is about probability, and your ability to factor in more than the most simplistic analysis. It can be done.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
PA1! KC1!9. 9. 22 Let's take another look at Palladium and Coffee. Both are tradable markets come and I think that coffee has found buyers and they go higher from here but use a small stop. The premise of looking at Palladium had to do with the ranging market, and then finding buyers at the support for bottom of the range box. The way you manage this market depends on you. If you feel buyers are at the bottom Of a range box and sellers are at the top of a range box, then you should trade it that way. However, I will show you alternative options. The approach to Coffee. I think there was a potential for a stop and reverse Strategy on the coffee market. Right now the market has come to a reasonable support and shows Buyers for a long trade.
ICEUS:KCZ2022
by ScottBogatin
1
KC1!7.22.22 Coffee I have to be honest, I almost decided to not post this video because I think the Market's probably going to go a little bit lower from where it is on the chart, but I told you I might take profits because I didn't want a drawdown if I'd been in the market. The problem with my decision making was that I didn't want to give money back. If you always think like this you will never make big money in the market because too much of that thinking keeps you from making good trades that require a little bit more time. It could be an okay strategy on one hand, however if the market might need a little more time and you recognize that, it can make a very big difference on how profitable you are as a Trader. What I should have thought was that I was in the money on this hypothetical trade play over $2,000, and I should have given it more time to give me the measured move area which you will see on the chart, and it might even go lower than that. There's a big difference between look at it with the market did after the fact, and actually making real-time trading decisions. There are many traders who know this, it is not a secret. On your pathway to learning, you will hear people telling you that you should plan your trade and trade your plan. That may be true, but I know for a fact that I make discretionary decisions and that takes time, and a certain amount of screen time. Ironically if you look at the screen too often you can really get into a lot of trouble Trading. It takes practice Introspection to know what's best for you. The major point that I made at the end of the video is that it is not that easy to find the best trading tools for you. Those people don't know what they don't know. Most people take a leap of faith this ain't no what is needed, or where they should go for training. Try to find the trading tools you will use, and then you have to practice with those tools. It takes time.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
Coffee7. 19. 22 coffee: This is a follow-up. The move off the bottom was about $4,000, I actually work it out after the video. The rest of the video is about the problems with this market as I perceive it. Obviously, the market may make new highs, but I'm concerned that it's running in the sellers it said it might not be easy for this market to make new highs right now. I don't really care I take a trade-in coffee or not, or if other people are even interested in coffee. It is more about judging probability and risk, and in this case, profit potential. This market doesn't make it easy to speculate a large profit and this is because the market is right up against sellers as I perceive it. It's more about the process of thinking using the chart as opposed to blind speculation with unclear feelings. On this market there is roughly a $4,000 profit depending on your entry, and now it's up against potential sellers. I could understand holding a long position thinking that the market will make a new high...I explained why I'm not so comfortable with that conclusion.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin