Get started

Kovach

Stocks Face Resistance at HighsStocks are still contending with relative highs. The S&P 500 has been wavering between highs at 4009 and 3963 or so. The strong buying spike from CPI last Thursday has leveled off in a sickle pattern. From here, we will see if stocks continue to range or if they retrace. The Kovach OBV is still bullish, but does appear to be losing steam. We could be forming a bull consolidation in pattern in preparation for another breakout. If so, 4068 is the next target. If we retrace, we should see support from 3963 or 3937.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Gold Facing ResistanceGold has reached our target of $1770, and as predicted, is having trouble with this level. We are running into resistance as we push toward a previous value area. The price action is rounding off and the Kovach OBV, though still strong, is tapering, suggesting that we will range or retrace. A significant retracement could take us all the way back to $1720, or $1705, the base of the sickle pattern. As an intermediary target, $1735 is about the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and this would also be reasonable. If we can break out again, anticipate resistance in the $1780's.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
Litecoin Rebounds!Litecoin cratered with the rest of the crypto market but has not remained downtrodden. It has since pivoted from lows in the high $40's, and blasted through $55.84 to $61.75. The $60's did little to hold Litecoin back, and we are currently pressing further to $64.37. The Kovach OBV has edged up significantly, suggesting that confidence in this coin is truly high (due to the Moneygram news) and not just volatility. If we break through $64.37, then we could test $66.94 again. If not, expect support in the low $60's, then there is a vacuum zone down to $55.84.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
6
Bitcoin Stable After Wild RideBitcoin plummeted earlier this week off news that major exchange FTX is essentially insolvent. Binance offered to bail them out, but later pulled the deal, exacerbating the situation. Bitcoin tumbled past our level at $17.6K, deep into the $15K's before we pivoted back to $17.6K, after CPI came out softer than expected suggesting that the Fed may pivot in its hawkish rhetoric. Risk-on assets have rallied but the FTX debacle still weighs on crypto. Bitcoin is still bounded from above by $17.6K, and the Kovach OBV has barely inched up. We have had to reference levels we haven't considered in years to get the next level of support down at $15.1K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
CPI Smashes the DXY!The US dollar has smashed through lower levels, careening through our anticipated level of support at 108.50. We fell through the vacuum zone to 107.20, and have broken through this as well. The next level of support is at 106.13. We will see if this gives way to support in the 105's. Any hint at from the Fed that they will remain steadfast in their hawkish stance will cause the DXY to rally again. If we are able to rally again, then 108.50 should provide resistance.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
2
S&P 500 Testing 4000?Stocks have benefited immensely from the CPI print on Thursday which showed that inflation is cooling slightly and therefore may signal a dovish pivot soon in Fed rhetoric. Stock indexes have all rallied accordingly. The S&P 500 is currently at the door of the 4000's. We are testing one level below 4009 at 3978. A red triangle on the KRI does seem to suggest that we will be facing resistance here, but we have not seen a significant retracement. If we do, we should find support at 3937 with 3909 a likely floor. If momentum can continue, then 4009 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Bond Market Rallies After Inflation DataBonds have soared after yields collapsed due to CPI coming in slightly better than expected. This follows months of consistently high readings fueling a hawkish Fed. With this reading, the markets will likely start to anticipate a pivot to a less hawkish stance. ZN broke through our target of 110'27, and moved a full handle above that to 111'26. It is currently meeting resistance at 111'29 or so, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Watch for ZN to equilibrate as the news gets priced in. If we can keep going then 113'12 is the next target, otherwise, 110'27 should give support.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
Inflation Data Slams the US DollarThe US dollar has collapsed as US inflation data has finally showed signs of cooling. Yields have weakened as investors are looking for any signs of a pivot in the Fed's hawkish stance. We have smashed through several support levels, and are currently finding support above 108.50. We should see some ranging start to kick in as the markets digest the news. This level is likely to hold but if not, 107.20 is the next level down. We should see resistance in the low 109's.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
Litecoin Rallies off Inflation DataCrypto has had a wild ride the last 24 hours, and Litecoin is not an exception. First, the FTX situation sent LTC tumbling from highs in the $70's, all the way down to the origin of the rally in the low $50's. We were able to puncture $50.64, a relative low, and strong level of support and dive into the $40's. However CPI data saved the day for crypto and other risk-on assets when it came in softer than expected, sending Litecoin flying back to the $50's. Currently we are at the edge of the $60 handle, where a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. If we are able to break into the $60's, then $61.75 is the next target. If we reject current levels, then $55.84 should provide support.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Inflation Data Fuels Ethereum RallyEthereum fell to our level at $1100 as the FTX situation worsened with Binance pulling out of the deal. We hit our support level at $1100 exactly, and saw a nice pivot there. This morning, at 8:30AM EST, US inflation data came out softer than expected, causing all risk-on markets to rally as this means the Fed is expected to ease their hawkish rhetoric for the first time in months. Ethereum blew through several levels above, including $1235 and $1288. But $1341 is still a barrier. It is likely that we will range about these levels for now, until the market fully prices in CPI data. If we retrace, the $1200's should provide support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
2
The Next Move in Bitcoin's Wild RideBitcoin has exhibited some of the most volatile swings in the past 24 hours as it has in the entire time we've been following it. First, the FTX debacle worsened as Binance reportedly pulled out of their deal to by the insolvent company. This sent BTC to yearly lows, cracking our absolute lower bound at $17.6K. But we didn't stop there. Bitcoin continued to sell off, careening through the $16K handle, finally finding support in the $15K's. We saw levels displayed on the chart we hadn't seen in years. We finally found support just above our level at $15.1K. Just now (at 8:30 AM EST), US inflation data came out weaker than expected, suggesting that the Fed may finally be able to ease their hawkish stance. This fueled a rally in all risk-on assets, including cryptos. Bitcoin rallied, pivoting off lows, and made an attempt at $17.6K from below. We appear to be meeting prohibitive resistance here, and expect BTC to range just below this level for the time being. If we are able to break through, then $18.6K should provide resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Cooling Inflation Sends Stocks SoaringThe S&P 500 has rocketed after October's data suggests that inflation is weakening. CPI came in at 7.7% against an expected 7.9%. The markets are looking for any excuse to anticipate a weaker Fed policy, and a tapering in rate hike trajectory. Yields have fallen dramatically and risk on assets are flying. The S&P 500 blasted off from 3749, through our relative high at 3848. We still have some room to go before 3909 but that is the next target. It might be the case that stocks equilibrate around these higher levels as the data gets priced in. If we retrace, expect support at 3825.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Litecoin Retraces All GainsLitecoin has compeletely retraced all gains from the Moneygram news. We blasted through the $50's, reaching as high as the $70's, before the FTX news slammed crypto markets. Liquidity and solvency issues came to light as Binance announced it was buying non-US divisions of another major crypto broker, FTX. Litecoin has subsequently retraced all gains, plummeting back to our level at $55.84. We are currently finding support at this level, but another selloff could take us deeper into the $50's, with support at $51.92 or $50.64 to provide a floor for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
FTX Insolvency Slams Ethereum Ethereum has plummeted from highs after forming a double top at $1653. This follows insolvency and illiquidity fears as Binance has offered to rescue the non-US divisions of FTX, another major crypto broker. Most of the majors have smashed through significant lows, and Ethereum has erased all monthly gains and then some, smashing through the $1200 handle as it shed more than 25%. We made it as low as the $1100's before a violent whipsaw established a low (for now). We expect $1100 to hold for the time being, but another selloff could take us closer to the $1K barrier. We will have to break through $1235 before attempting higher levels.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Slammed After FTX Meltdown!Bitcoin has melted down, as the FTX platform faces insolvency issues . Binance came to the rescue, offering to rescue non-US divisions of the company. This follows a bank run in FTX's token, FTT, after Binance sold over $1B of the token, causing a 'bank run' which impacted the entire crypto market. The whole ordeal spurred worries of liquidity and solvency issues in crypto. Major cryptocurrencies plummeted as did the stock of any major platform that sells crypto (e.g. Coinbase and Robinhood). Bitcoin was edging higher, making meager gains. It was starting to look like it was able to hold the $20K's, but after the news it plummeted down to the $18K's, which we anticipated as a floor. This was not the end of the move, as the selloff bled into the APAC session. We have now breached our (yearly) low of $17.6K, which we anticipated to hold as a floor. We are currently hovering below this level at $17.5K or so. If we can manage to pivot, watch for Bitcoin to claw itself back to $18.6K, where we may equilibrate as the markets digest the news.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Stocks Showing Signs of WeaknessStocks have edged higher, but appear to be leveling off. Election uncertainty will be lifted as results of the 2022 midterms keeps pouring in. The markets are not as concerned in election results as most think, but we may see a small rally now that they're over. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, which could suggest that stocks will hold their course. We have seen a very weak rally with the S&P 500 inching gains for the past week. The price action appears to be rounding off, which could suggest a selloff soon. Additionally, more warnings of a global recession keep pouring in, so it is difficult to imagine this wave of euphoria can sustain. If we fall, we should have support at 3758 or 3714. If we rally, we must break 3909 before considering higher prices.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Big Rally in Gold!Gold has rallied massively, breaking through to the $1700's. Yesterday, we tested our level at $1683. As predicted, it provided resistance. A pullback tested $1670, where we immediately saw a strong pivot. Then momentum continued through $1683, and several levels after that, solidifying the $1700's. We reached as high as $1720 before a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. The Kovach OBV is very strong, but this is quite a move for gold and we expect some ranging or a pullback. Support is evident at $1705, but if that breaks then $1692 and $1683 should also provide support. If the rally continues, $1735 is the next target.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Litecoin Holds the $60'sLitecoin made a run for the $70's, with $73.62 providing resistance. This turned out to be a ceiling for now, and Litecoin dropped with the rest of the crypto market back to the $60's. We did not retrace the entire move back to the $50's, which is reassuring. We are currently seeing support in the mid $60's around our level at $64.37. A wick extended down to $61.75 which held nicely. Watch for Litecoin to range around these levels in the $60's as it finds footing. Beware of the vacuum zone below to $55.84.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy