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Finally on the point of interest ! - LDTP #16Let's do the point ! We are finally on the level that I'm looking for since months now. It's the moment of truth, spring will succeed or fail ? We will have the answer soon, in all case the rules are always the same : WAIT SIGNALS, DON'T ANTICIPATE . I will update this idea with everything I find to say like I did for the LDTP #14.1 (I hope I will have time to do it). LDTP #15 just have been closed after multiples update, the main idea I was presenting have been proved, I invit you to check it. First thing we can say is that we find the same interest that we had the first time we entered in the spring area. Since we broke the last daily bottom we find the same interest again, institutionnals are back, it's accumulating. We can also point the epidermic reaction that we had on the bottom of the area, pixel perfect once again. Wyckoff redistribution on 1 minute timeframe actually for me, decreasing volume so anticipated exit, we should go to at least $24,100, $23,620 for the final target. This idea will be updated multiples times.
by Kentg
2
Everything stay in the way of the plan - LDTP #15Let's do the point ! Back to business, I think there is many things to clarify after yesterday's candle and which reaction it causes to some traders. In the many updates I did on the last idea, I said that we was inbetween two stop hunt pattern on hour timeframe (both have been executed) inside a lateralization pattern on daily timeframe. Standard structure was the pullback inside the broken support area that I had put aside thinking that we would continue directly to the bottom of the spring area because of the lateralization pattern. Market show that I was wrong but that don't change anything in the plan. Long time that we didn't spoke of what happen inside market so that a good opportunity to do it now : LATERALIZATION =/= RANGE Most of people will call, wrongly, the lateralization state of market like a range movement. It's mostly a mistake of timeframe analysis. Where the range is a breath in market inbetween two areas of interest, the supply and the demand, in a goal of distribution / accumulation / redistribution / reaccumulation. The lateralization is a suffocation inbetween two strength of opposition inside a single area of interest. That why, like I already said about it, it's a place for continuation. Take a look at this : I tried to illustrate it showing multiple examples. First, to understand the timeframe mistake you can see that lateralization examples are way more longer than ranges, but they occurs in the same timeframes. They can be horizontal or not, to the difference of ranges. And that why I think I see this mistake actually, because it is horizontal here. To the difference when I exploit a range I will use Wyckoff Patterns because it provide a structure. On the other side in lateralization I will use volumes profiles and the exploit of it that I already showed in another LDTP. So now that I clarified that Lateralization isn't a range, it's time to understand that it is VERY USEFUL to identify it inside a range. It's one of the best way to identify incoming breakouts. Like I said lateralization happen when to strenght of opposition fight inside a single area of interest. So, in a range when you see, for example, lateralization inside your demand area that mean your selling strenght don't wait anymore the supply area. And so if you take the basic logic of the range which is buy the demand and sell the supply, when you see sellers inside the demand that induce you the incoming breakout. Buyers will be suffocated by sellers until their will be overwhelmed. (First illustration of LATERALIZATION on chart) What happen when sellers don't succeed in the overhelming of buyers ? Exactly what you can see here, an exhaust. Exhausts candles that I use in entry signals happen in trend but this one not. Sellers get away, giving space to buyers. This give a candle with volume, with imbalance, and erase the buying power of the support which can be retest and (usually) easily broke. (Second illustration of LATERALIZATION on chart) This is strong to understand to read the market and use it in construction of plan and chart analysis because there is only few failure in it. As it's not a consolidation movement it (usually) don't provide delayed bottom, as it's not a bottom structure it (usually) don't provide trend movement. So even if it fail in the breakout and provide an exhaust you can expect a quick retest of the levels without a deep movement. Speaking of bottom, I also read many people speaking of flat bottom here. I'm not of this opinion, even if I'm saying wrong about lateralization, flat bottom is easily characterized by an horizontal buying / selling pressure, which is not the case here. Another thing, yesterday's movement happened on an holiday, most of this days don't provide movement (like weekend for example) and when it happen they are usually redraw in the opposite side in the next few days (like FOMC sessions for example). To finish, another thing that confort me in my plan is the contrarian spirit of retailers that we can see : in bull trend every red candle is an opportunity to short and in bear trend every green candle is an opportunity to buy, feared by the fact they could miss the movement, convincing themselves that it's the right time to invest. You never take the entire movement in trading, nobody buy the dip and sell the top, when you arrive to do it it's moslty luck and, if you do that, the amount of loss you took before, on other attempts, prove it (care to premiums who do that or promise that in any form of payable content). So saying all of that, my plan stay unchanged on daily timeframe. I always expect a strong selling movement to reach the bottom of the spring area, it take time for the moment and if we go for the pullback with this exhaust it will take even more time. But if I'm wrong here we will see increasing buying volumes leaving imbalances where the pullback should happen (over $33,000), else we will face strong selling pressure on the broken support or before. 🛑 "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" 🛑 👉 Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
by Kentg
4
REJECTED - LDTP #14.4Let's do the point ! // Update #14.4 I said that we will gauge selling pressure around $30,800 - $31,500, we directly rejected the area : Acceleration also started, not to the spring area bottom like I said, yet, but I bet for a hard monday. Low probability to see it happen during the weekend. Confirming that, we can see lateralization now on daily timeframe. Lateralization is in favor of continuation so we have now everything aligned to see a deeper bottom, and I expect it soon. In a global view, we stay in the same dynamic in this cycle which is : no consolidation ! Typical of a spring. The only bull scenario that I see here is the range exploit on hourly timeframe : For that we need to see strong buyers on bottom of it to invalidate sellers. But it's not even a bull expectation for the daily timeframe because it give a target in the broken support which bring us again in the initial scenario which is : pullback into deeper bottom. So I'm sorry for my bullish friends but I'm still waiting the bottom. Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
by Kentg
3
Follow the plan 👌- LDTP #14.3Let's do the point ! // Update #14.3 It was a calm weekend, and more than that it's nearly a calm week after what we've seen last week. We are just following what I've pointed in the last updates, there wasn't buying volumes, there wasn't buying signals, one reason for that : it's not a bottom and we are in a consolidation movement. Daily timeframe is totally aligned with that for the moment, only setup to invalidate this is the delayed bottom. However, it requires to see a bull retracement and not a range like what we have actually. In that way, I actually see a pattern on the hourly timeframe that could bring us, if it is confirmed, around $33,800. Which is also the movement that I was expecting in last updates to pullback the broken support, but for the moment we have to gauge the selling pressure around $30,800-$31,500. If it's too strong we will see, probably an acceleration to the spring area bottom. Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
by Kentg
Back to support ? Never buy under a resistance ! - LDTP #10Let's do the point ! Some was calling to buy under resistance, in a compression area, but unfortunately that how you buy a top. And I hope that the work I've done in the LDTP #9 avoided you to do that cause when I see all the trending ideas which called to buy "NOW ! " I understand that it could be easily to be emotionally trapped. I will always remind that it's better to be late in a trend than early in a trap. I prefer to buy $55,000 to $60,000 or worse if there is no way to enter late I prefer to see it run without me in respect of my strategy than a buy at $47,000 under resistance, making money in trading isn't playing coin flip. Having said that, now that we have a selling volume we have a completed pattern under resistance which is typically an entry signal. You know that I don't short so I will developp it in another idea, if it's interest you follow me to know when it's comes out. In contrast, we have a long position since the LDTP #7, I'm closing it because we have an opposite signal ON THE SAME TIMEFRAME UNIT , which invalidate our first entry. Also we have that short edging position since LDTP #9 (monday) which reach his target. Because of the complete pattern, I will only close half of the position and let the rest run (stop loss breakeven too). I remind that the goal of an edging position is to retake your loss exposure, so as I close my first trade I don't have loss exposure anymore so it would be fool to don't exploit that edging position to is maximum by letting it run now. Even if a retest of the resistance can make us exit breakeven it's important to exploit the fact you entered early / high. I hope that now you can understand the power of edging your position and not give way to emotions. Let's do some maths : if I had cut my position instead of managing it monday, I would have taken as profit 0.48 of my exposure (so R/R 0.48) while taking the risk to had true an see it reach target without me and so develop frustration. On a standard edging position here I take 1.00 of my exposure without closing the first one which could bring to a final result of 0 (edging position +1 initial position -1 in case of a loss on the first one) or 3 (edging position +1 initial position +2) because the goal is only to cover the loss exposure. And here because of the context and the opposite signal I take already 0.79 of my exposure (0.5 of edging position + 0.29 of initial position), by letting the rest run I can take up to approximatively 6.79 (which is the final target = return on support at approximately $36,000 (50% of 12R/R + 0.79 actual R/R) and furthermore my position is breakeven which mean I cannot take anymore loss. That in anyway better that if I had gave way to emotions. (I hope I didn't lost you AHAH) "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" Learn to open your mind to multiples possibilities to improve yourself, don't be fix in an idea, always explore multiples approaches while respecting your strategies. In term of future expectation, we are actually entering back in the imbalance. Generally, the first run, when it's not a breakout, is rejected. So we can expect now a little consolidation which could bring to a retest of the resistance before to come back and fully fill the imbalance. After working in it we want to see price breakdown to the support like expect the Wyckoff pattern. All my fears are always of actuality speaking of this pattern, I invit you to go check the relative idea where I exposed it. To note that if we go for a spring in this cycle we expect price to go strongly to the support now. In the case we going back to the resistance after fully filled the imbalance, we can expect a 1,2,3 breakout of the resistance to leave the wyckoff pattern and the short pattern. In this case, I expect a one sided run which mean a return straight to $66,000 - $68,000 without consolidation, but we have time to see it come for the moment and in term of probability I'm staying in the way of what we have and for the moment it's a short pattern in a Wyckoff pattern. Let me say that : Imbalances don't lie, Wyckoff don't lie, Supports / Resistances don't lie, Volumes don't lie, Price action don't lie, whatever your strategy if it is mathematically reliable it doesn't lie but premiums scams lie. Whenever who you want to follow, whenever who you want to support, whenever who you want to believe, always verify that he doesn't provide public payable services where your person serv his own interest. That probably the best advice I can give you. You will need to surround yourself to progress in trading, that a fact, but don't be the food of this guys. This game is full of scavenger. Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some ! NB : Of course there is always 2 hours before close if there is a strong buy before the close it could invalidate the short signal, that why I will post it only after.
by Kentg
🚫Volume don't lie - LDTP #14.2Let's do the point ! // Update #14.2 I don't have much time to write this update, so for the full recap I invite you to read yesterday's update (attached under). So, it won't be a daily signal, plus, it confirms what I was thinking yesterday for the moment. Because of the volatility we've seen a nice move of +5/6% during most of the day but there wasn't volume, so it's not sustainable. Like expected we go for a consolidation movement, technically we should go to $33,000 to pullback the broken support but as we've seen every consolidation being repeal on this last cycle we could already retest the bottom tomorrow (don't believe in it as it's the weekend, we should lateralize before to panic sell Monday if we want to repeal this one). That also confirms my thought that we don't have a bottom for the moment and that the movement of yesterday is a simple epidermic reaction on the entry of the spring area. Institutionals have decided, they didn't load as much as they want. Honorable mention to GALAUSDT and MANAUSDT which are the only ones that I saw with a buying volume today, and so a daily reversal signal on support. I drop it like that, it's not an investment advice. For those interested in it, I don't think going against the BTC move actually is smart because everyone will blood more than him if it's go down or at least you will have a better entry. (They have to hold selling pressure before the close else it's not anymore a signal, on GALA for example) Calm weekend ? Will see ! 👀 Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
by Kentg
1
ONE QUESTION, ONE ANSWER TONIGHT - LDTP #14.1Let's do the point ! // Update #14.1 ONE QUESTION : Could institutionnals absorb all the selling exhaust ? That was the question I was asking myself the first time I explained this pattern in the LDTP #8.2. And this is always the question. Now we are in the area, and if I do this update is only for one reason : remind you to DON'T ANTICIPATE ! We start to see some goods signals on short timeframes with buyers reactions but DON'T ANTICIPATE ! If the answer is no, it will go threw and deeply bleed. If it's yes this can be the trade of your life. In all case YOU WILL NOT BUY THE BOTTOM , so DON'T ANTICIPATE , because that how you burn accounts. Should LUNA create an systemic crisis ? Can we close back in the weekly support area to save it ? Will we see the biggest amount of volume of all time ? Is cryptocurrencies a bubble and overvaluated market ? ... Tonight it's way more than ONE ANSWER . Like, follow or comment if you like, it give me some strength to continue !
by Kentg
5
😱 When even professionnals start to panic ... - LDTP #14Let's do the point ! Hard to find time to do updates this past week but here one because we see too much panic actually. So where are we ? Is it the end for cryptocurrencies ? Maybe the cave for all ? No, none of these we are just following everything I'm saying since two month now. We play the game of the Wyckoff accumulation, we play the game of an psychological pattern handle by big hands. Like I was saying in the lasts updates, none of the plans to avoid spring take place so we are going for the spring. Yes we break our demand area, yes there is a breakout today, but keep the larger picture, we are not in bear market. Like when I called to not go long under a resistance after the March 28th breakout, I strongly advise you to don't sell this, you don't sell over a support. ▶️ So where we go ? Plan didn't change, it's time to WAIT and to be PATIENT, wait price to go inside the spring area, wait for signals and wait for buying volumes (probably on 4H/1H timeframe). Furthermore, we broke the channel so we can expect now the target of it which is the extension. No reason to play it now, there was a signal but I didn't had time to post it and as I never explained continuation signals, I don't want to just throw it without explanation. As we already reached the middle of the target + we are in a weekly support, it wouldn't be smart to sell on pullback after that. This target match with the spring area which is always better when you see multiples plans/patterns target the same area. ▶️ What movement can we expect now ? The first possibility, that I don't think will happen but exist and has to be noticed is the Wyckoff STB. It's not impossible to see another cycle from this weekly support (without reach the bottom of the spring area) to the last AR before to see finally the last cycle of spring. I'm not confident in it when I see the structure of the last movement and mostly because of the actual psychology of the market. Fear & Greed isn't update for the moment but should be on the historical low or near of it tomorrow. It's exactly what the pattern search so that why I always believe we are in the last cycle, the spring. Saying that, two way to reach the bottom : pullback the broken demand area before before to reach the spring area. Or the most brutal, and what I actually believe, the flush. We have a breakout today, with big volume, which could be an exhaust also. Which better way than the flush to liquidate the market and retailers by the same occasion. Only 20% from now, believe me, it's the next door. When there is high volatility, large spreads, panic movement, you can do it in nearly 2 hour on this asset. Once we broke $28,800 it will be straight to it. If the spring pattern fail, it's simple, it's the bear market, but no reason to speak of it until we closed the weekly candle under it. It's impossible to speak of a state of market in prevision of it like an actual fact. So many are doing it since weeks or month now but it's another way to see which one speak with knowledges & experience. A simple exemple, you can't say price IS $25k when your chart show you $30k, so how you could say we ARE in bear market when you are always over your timeframe support. That exactly why many people lose money on market, they anticipate factuals facts or simply they use words that they don't understand the signification, confusing bear movement and bear market. Before to close this LDTP, if you remenber the LDTP #9, I took an edging position (signal was also posted in another idea the 29th of march, everything attached under) then I said in the LDTP #10 that I will hold the rest of the position to the support. I closed it May 5th at $36,500 which turn a losing 2:1 ratio position into a winning 6.5:1 position, closing the story of the edging position. 🛑 "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" 🛑 Saying all that, be patient, be careful, wait signals, don't anticipate cause I awared about volatility and we are fully in it. 👉 Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
by Kentg
1
🎯 Target reached ! Wyckoff spring incoming ? - LDTP #13Let's do the point ! Long time since the last update, didn't had time to post it before even if there is some thing that I will come back on. ✅ First : CONGRATS if you was in the short trade I posted the 1st of April (it wasn't a joke), target have been reached. If you are greedy you can push it to the yellow support line, to your own risk. ▶️ Secondly : I will finish to speak of the daily timeframe saying that my expectations stay unchanged. I think we will go to the support, here we will gauge buyers even if I'm really pessimistic in front of signals that give market. For me, the dynamic make me expect a spring in the Wyckoff pattern. No scenario that I wrote which could avoid the spring seems to take place so ... Take care the next few days. For more information about it, I will update the idea about this pattern, you can refer to it (attached to this idea). ▶️ Now, as each new # of LDTP I like to teach things, so I will come back to the LDTP #12.3 that I didn't had time to wrote this weekend. In the last LDTP #12.2, the main subject was to don't anticipate, wait buying volumes because we was between to pattern which could act one against the other. Conclusion : No buying volume == recovery of the downward dynamic and so the failed SOS of Wyckoff accumulation didn't said wrong. (You can refer to the next image with red circles) ▶️ But more important, something that I never talked about Wyckoff. If you pay attention you can see the pattern isn't the same that on the LDTP #12.2. Consolidation goes more high than what I would expect and reached the invalidation level of the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern to turn it into a Wyckoff Redistribution Pattern. Wasn't expected it at all I won't lie. Won't lie also that difference between Accumulation / Redistribution & Distribution / Reaccumulation is only a question of experience. Easily recognizable by the orientation of the SPRING / UTAD but before it, it stay a question of dynamic, position, strengths and readings as before the SPRING / UTAD the structure is a neutral range. As we was on a strong level (POC) I turned it into the way of the daily consolidation but it seems that market chose the breakout of it in the way of the daily dynamic. It's oriented in the way of all LDTP I did before, saying that we will go to the daily support. But this further confirm that we are going for a spring in the daily WAP. As I said in the idea of the WAP, the linear movement is typically representative of the spring, reject all consolidation is another sign of it. So in this pattern, we did the UTAD, we goes back to the support lines, succeed SOS around it, deep LPS to the POC of the range. I personally don't exploit it as much as accumulation and reaccumulation patterns (except to equilibrate exposure) but I wanted to show it, to know what is happening as always but also because it's important to don't stay focus on an idea and adapt yourself to the market, because it won't adapt to your vision. Once again even if I didn't draw the good side, one thing to remenber is to not being positionned to the wrong way, that why it's more than ever important to not anticipate patterns ! Whatever they are be patient and wait signals. Here there wasn't bullish signals, no reason to lose money here. ▶️ A last thing one this picture : I already said multiple times the importance to learn to draw well your supports and resistances. That you need to not draw it with the actual price but only based on the past. If you try to find resistances/supports that match with the actual price to convince yourself that market will return now : it will not work. Here the proof of what I say ! I let the support and resistance of the downward channel that I spoke one week ago on the LDTP #12.2, you can see them with dotted yellow/blue lines. And you can also see the perfection of the market reaction on them. We can see actually the confrontation between buyers and sellers on it. Even if it should break at the end for all what I said before. 🛑 "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" 🛑 👉 Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
by Kentg
3
🙌 Right on the spot, don't anticipate ! - LDTP #12.2Let's do the point ! // Update #12.2 In reaction of yesterday's update, I said exactly that we was between two structure which complement each other but which can diverge if Wyckoff reintegrates his pattern. And I also said that in the channel pattern we was expecting a pullback before to target the extention. So everything is happening right now , we have pullbacked the broken resistance with selling volume on top which mean that we have the confrontation between the reintegration of the Wyckoff pattern after a new AR (failed SOS) and the pullback of the channel. We start to see buying pressure on spot, now it's important to wait buying volumes . If you anticipate any move here on this area it's clearly a 50/50, the key will be in buying volumes for the bull side. If it start to lateralize here, we will see a compression and so it will be important to analyse where go the absorption of volume to understand where will be the breakout. In all case, I remind that areas of confrontation between two forces are really tricky spots for beginner so, if you are, I advise you to stay away of it . 👉 Like, follow or comment if you like, I need it to continue !
by Kentg
2
🎯 Objective accomplished ! - LDTP #12.1Let's do the point ! // Update #12.1 Short update. Speaking of the topic of the LDTP #12, the leak of volume have been filled as announced. We can see on the volume profile the left red bar which represent the level of volume before this range and so with the right red bar you can see the impact of it. I think it's a good way for beginners or even experimented traders to understand and visualize what is happening behind the price, you see candles, you see lines, but it's important to understand that your market have a structure AND respect a structure. Understand that and you will understand that you have time when you trade, and so that patience must be one of your skills. In the LDTP #12, I also spoke of multiple patterns that I was expecting to see in this range. You can see on the next picture that two structures start to take place, we will see which one will succeed. First the Wyckoff pattern, we are currently reacting on the resistance line. In all case I will not exploit it because as already explained when you have decreasing volume in this structure you can expect an antcipated exit, and with this long weekend we've seen only few volumes. So that will not surprise me that we could exit now but as it's not really representative with holiday it could also retake a standard pattern with a spring. So just stay away of it if you are not experimented. The second pattern is a downward channel, resistance have been broke so we wait for a pullback before to target the extension. As the other I remind to stay away, we are between to structure which complement each other but which can diverge if Wyckoff reintegrates his pattern, just stay away of it and wait the market to take a side. Go on higher timeframe and be patient. In term of larger picture, my expectations stay unchanged, I'm not surprise to see a reaction on the POC, that why I anticipated to see structures here in the LDTP #12. Now we will see if we go for a consolidation or if it's just an epidermal reaction because of the level. Hard to analyse the volume of monday with this long weekend, furthermore I'm always suspicious with big mondays because of the cyclicality of the market. So, as multiple times, answer will be in patience. Like, follow or comment if you like, I need it to continue !
by Kentg
4
⏱ Time to short, .. No, sorry it's too late ! - LDTP #12Let's do the point ! First thing, and it's the reason of the title, my first motivation to start to wrote ideas have been to aware people about premium scams, I know it could be repetitive and boring to hear it, but I saw this platform evoluate, on good side like on bad side, all around the years. I saw this guys, which use premium offer to gain visibility, growth with the explosion of cryptocurrencies. And even if I don't succeed to teach people beginners how to trade, at least I hope I will arrive to protect them from this guys which will never teach them anything but only take their money. That why I will never stop to repeat that again and again in most of my ideas. Today trending ideas are way less instructive than years before. Simply because these guys don't earn money in trading, don't trade and don't know how to profitably trade but act as if they are. Just look the trending ideas page, two weeks ago the same guys which was ALL saying to go long on the top now say to go short, two weeks after the top, two weeks after I said to not buy under a resistance like they was saying because it's how you buy a top of market ... Two weeks later they call the short, ... NO ! We are in a range, in the middle of it, you don't trade it ! You trade the limits of a range, not the middle of it, that a simple rules, but essential . If you missed it, it's too late, wait the next opportunity (we are not here to do coinflips). These guys will never give you advice which help you, they only read a chart like a 5 years old kid can do it. Obviously now everybody can say it's going down. So always take care of who you are following, most of them will guide you wrongly, and if you have the patience to search them, some will bring you solutions. Now this said, let's speak of the chart. First statement for the short trade I called the 31 of march, if you are in it, you have to pass your stop loss breakeven now. You can't loose any money from it now when you make a R/R superior of 1:1 (that what I usually use but it could be more or less, in all case it made more than 1.66:1 == >13% here, so you have to be breakeven now.). Don't forget to take profits on the 2:1 ratio target if it reach. For the more greedy of you, you can maybe go search the bottom of the channel . "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" Second thing, I started to spoke of volume profiles in the LDTP #11, so I will continue to speak of it if there is interesting things to say. So here we can see we have a leak of volume around $40,300 - $39,600, as we are building a range, it's a little bit unusual. So we can expect some lateralization here at a moment (this cycle or the next one), which invite me to these four scenarios that you can see on the right of the chart : A : Breakout, nothing to exploit here, it's one of the most probable scenario in the case of an accumulation of Wyckoff and I will spoke more of that later. B : V-Turn on the POC, low probability for me (in the perspective we need to make volume that not the best case), that why I will not exploit but it can happen. C : Accumulation of Wyckoff on the area, you know I like it. You know also that BTC is one of the best asset to exploit it, because of the amount of retailers, you can find it everywhere in BTC. So not impossible to see it here, a good opportunity to fix the range in the area to make volume and make a spring to the POC. It could be an opportunity to exploit a long trade on lower timeframes but with a little exposure because we are supposed to hit the bottom of the channel before to go back up. D : Channel before continuation (flag pattern in chartism), another opportunity to make volume here and then reach the bottom of the daily channel. In this case there is opportunity to exploit the top of the channel (on shorter timeframe) to short the exit to the bottom. It's the most probable scenario in the case we do volume here in this cycle. Here all my plans for the next few days. But in term of larger picture opinion, it's time to speak of a scarier thing. Do you remenber the idea I posted exactly one month ago ? Yes, ... The Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern (I will update it with the last informations soon)! I didn't hide that I don't like this one, it's never changed but it's also never have been more of actualilty than now. Why ? The dynamic of the cycle :It's regular, linear, as a last cycle before the spring. And in a linear projection, I think, none scenarios to avoid the spring that I developped in the initial idea can happen. That why I wait a lot a this leak of volume area, to make a stop in this dynamic first, and secondly to maybe expect others scenarios than the spring in this WAP (So we don't want to see the A scenario). Why this one is scray : Spring is expected to $25,000..., under the weekly support area... More info in the initial idea. To finish, I said multiple times that I was expecting a 10% move, as it didn't happened on the breakout of the 1 hour channel, I don't think it will happen now (wait today's close). When I see this linear dynamic, I think institutionnals have already reversed their positions in the top range which could explained we don't see it but more a long leak to the bottom for the moment. In term of big movement, if there is a spring you will see way more than 10% I think but it could be a flush and not a exhaust like as was expected on the channel's breakout. Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
by Kentg
7
Wait the retest, don't anticipate the breakout ! - LDTP #11.5Let's do the point ! // Update #11.5 Rapid statement, the most likely to happen yesterday, happened. We reached the support, no buying volumes on, which announces a consolidation movement. Here the next step : retest of the support. It will depend of the length of the consolidation but as we didn't saw buying volumes we can think it will go deeper to try to find some, or do a delayed bottom like the last time on this support. Each retest of the support is now an possibility to do the breakout of it but don't anticipate it. "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" Like, follow or comment if you like, I need it to continue !
by Kentg
2
Smelling 💩, lot of things over the bull's heads - LDTP #11.4Let's do the point ! // Update #11.4 Perfect prediction yesterday, nice deep retest of the demand, reaction without buying volumes == consolidation into (ongoing) fall back to the primary support (yellow line). So plan stay the same, we will target for the support and see on it multiples scenarios : Breakout and continuation of the sell off and so why not the 10% move I called 4 days ago. (I don't believe in it, except news -> see "NB" at the end) No buyers and so a reaction movement of consolidation before to see a retest in the next days. (Most probability for me) Buyers defend it and so we will target for a new retest of the resistance For this last case, I think it's time to take a larger picture and see how much sellers level there is now to break for buyers. If we do the point, to expect a daily continuation there is now : two support possibly now acting as resistance if pullback on them ; four already tested and rejected levels ; two supply area never retested and a new resistance level ; without forget the daily primary resistance which is the global resistance and which encompasses all these. So that start to make a lot, if we add institutionnals repositionning or covering, more retailers leveraged positions getting rekt, all this makes the sky darken. I don't think we can speak anymore of a bull breakout for the daily resistance (except news -> see "NB" at the end), the best chance to see a bull continuation is maybe now lateralization to absorb sellers on the length (but it's not the actual dynamic). In the case we break downward, we can start to think to the wyckoff pattern I talked about nearly one month ago from now ... Just want to add that actually we are on the POC of a little range which could create a consolidation to the purple support, becoming resistance, before to see the test of the support. Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! NB : Take care to the FOMC minute tonight, if they speak again of acceleration of the interest rate increase, it could create a panic sell on speculative market and so provoke the breakout, in the other case, if it's like always an investor's ass licking it could create a small breath with a panic buy as consolidation but not representative of a real dynamic of market if it's not followed on longer timeframe. All this to say to take care of volatility after it.
by Kentg
Market is too perfect ! - LDTP #11Let's do the point ! When you look this chart, you know I will say many things, that right ! And there is many thing to say ! So let's start by a quick recap of the statement made yesterday. We have a short daily signal which, in the Wyckoff Accumulation Pattern bring us to the support. In the idea about the signal I exposed multiples reasons pros and cons this signal. In term of price action I was expected a pullback on imbalance first then a retest of resistance before to see the imbalance fully filled. Now let's take a look of what happened and to see this you have to go on hourly timeframe. This was a SO F******* INTERESANT DAY, the type of day you like to trade on. It's simply, technically, a masterclass. I will explain you first multiples things. I speak many times about volumes, essential, it's simply what make moove your market. You can use all indicators you want, no one make move the market, volumes does. But to understand how it impact your market you have to understand that it's not only vertical, not only an amount of exchange between buyers and sellers in a candle. It's also an amount of exchange between buyers and sellers ON A PRICE, and this ones are represented horizontally and named as volumes profiles (blue on graph). They are way more important in the evolution of your market, way more usefull but also way more difficult to handle. That why I will explain brievly some basics but I invit you to ask questions or search by your own other content to learn about. So I spoke of imbalance many times now, already said that they are "a hole/gap" in volume profile. And what make them interesting for that it's because a resistance/support is simply the limit between a interesting area and an untraded area. So you can easily figure that they are places between a large amount of volume and another where you don't have volume ... exactly like imbalances. So imbalances, anomalies of market, act like resistance/support. Multiples exploitation pattern from them (here on graph when price come from the top) : A : On the first passage, price will mostly bounce and react on it, like a simple pullback. Wait signal like if your top line of imbalance was a support line. The probability of success is really good on the first bounce, even if market can do this A pattern multiple times before to close the imbalance. (Always on the first passage, if price doesn't react on the top line you can find the same pattern but for the bottom. It way more complex to handle, in part because of the B pattern.) B : Second passage (mostly), imbalance get fully filled and price will work on it to accumulate some volumes, making a range in the imbalance. The exploitation of this one is done by the range pattern that I will explain later. C : Pullback on the fully filled imbalance OR Pullback on an imbalance got imbalanced again (Yes, if you do a breakout on it, you let the gap of volume which mean you always have the anomaly of market even if you passed on it. So when you come back it act like a first passage (A) but invert), like a pullback on a broken support, it became resistance, you can now use the bottom line as resistance line with signals. Another pattern before to speak of today's session, the range pattern exploitation. I just want to remind that a range is horizontal, a channel is oblique. This is two things totally different, in structure, in exploitation, in market dynamic, in all way ! So your range (that you can find on left on chart) is an exchange between a level of supply (resistance area) and a level of demand (support area), so in is globality he is an area of volumes. These volumes to be exploited are read on the volume profile. Important level of your volume profile : the Point Of Control (POC) which is simply the price where the most volumes have been traded. Most of the time POC is in the middle of your range. There is other multiples interesting data to read with volumes profiles that I will not develop here but I invit you to read about it by your own on the platform or on google. I will only simply say that every step of price in your volume profile symbolize a state of your range. And as trading is mathematics you can easily find the correlation between your volume profile of your range and a normal law of distribution. In term of exploitation, when your price leave your range by a side or another you will see that a common pattern is to see it reach the expansion of 1:1 of the range, pullback the range on the POC (it can be simply on the resistance / support if pressure and supply / demand is too high) before to expand to the 2:1 / 3:1 expansion of your range (most relevant levels represented with dashed lime line here). And because Wyckoff is a psycological pattern of range, now you know why I target 1:1 expansion of range as first target out of the range. "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" Can we speak of today now ? Yes let's go ! So I was targeting a bounce on imbalance before to see a retest of the resistance. No signal, no volumes, no buyers, simply a little lateralization because of profit-taking caused by, no hazard, the 1:1 expansion of the range (where I took half of my gains yesterday). So next step is the full filling of the imbalance with volumes or a bounce on the bottom line. Neither one or the other, because we do a breakout, so we don't full filled it but leave again an imbalance, smaller this one (always purple rectangle). Next step ? We leave a range, so after 1:1 extension it's 2:1 extensions to target. And here we found a bounce, no signal, no volume always, which invite to see a consolidation. And what is really funny here, it's also the POC of the last range and like I said it's the most relevant level of pullback of a range (how market is well structured == market equilibrium). As every consolidation you find most of the time an end of it on the next resistance / support, and here it's our imbalance again. It did the job, there was a short daytrade here which give target on the big pin, complexe pattern that I never developped here but if you zoom on you can see the reaction on our imbalance and that show you what I explain in these pattern exploitation. I will be honest, what happen next was hard to anticipate, actually you see a consolidation movement (so expecting a lower low next) which reject back the resistance of the lower range and transform this consolidation bottom in a bull movement bottom. That another pattern that I never explain too, way more complexe than the initial too. In brief, you make a low with volumes (that why the initial pattern search for buying/selling volumes), when you don't you simply consolidate before to find volumes lower/upper (If you take the first LDTP idea that what making me say we didn't had the bottom of market for BTC, and I said true). Here you break your cycle and your market dynamics with an unfilled bottom, and this is an anomaly of market which annouce strong movement. And we got it, massive volumes, massive move, but irrelevant for the moment because it take place in an no interest area like show this image (the break of cycle on the bottom is more relevant than these volumes). In term of expectation, it take a stop for the moment on the support of the lowest bottom of the top range like show the blue rectangle. But I will be honest we didn't retest the resistance for the moment, there isn't volume, so that only a consolidation before an higher movement (It confirmed during I was writting it). Like yesterday we wait for the retest of the resistance, important levels are the grey areas (resistance/support area of the range), the yellow area (higher resistance) and the strongest the POC of the range. Here we will gauge the strenght of buyers AND the strenght of sellers. Because what is important to understand is that we are in a big confrontation here. Now buyers have the bullet we will see if sellers are stronger to hold them. I end shortly cause it's moving now ! Look your chart and enjoy cause in any way we go it's will be brutal. I think we are not far to see a + or - 10% on this market. Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue ! *Speaking of comments, come ask questions, come share your point of view, come debate, I need to feel that my without counterpart work is usefull for some !
by Kentg
4
More than a bullet, it's now a momentum for sellers - LDTP #11.3Let's do the point ! // Update #11.3 Rapid statement since two hours, we was looking for bulls to shot down sellers, they missed, more than that they failed. Strong reject of always the same level, the POC, I said it will be the strongest level to break, in fact it is. The accumulation of position on this price start to be huge. So we now have a strong reject, allowing sellers to take another try to end this battle. We are actually on the last level for buyers to expect a continuation pattern (horizontal triangle), I will be honest I don't believe in it, I don't see a V-Turn happening now. For me, sellers took the momentum on this last top, more than a bullet they have the possibility to end this. The missed higher top and the time will now play against buyers and reverse positionning will start to happen if we don't see a reaction here. I expect now a deep retest of the demand area and more than that, a continuation to the primary support which is the yellow line. If squeeze there is, it will be there. Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue !
by Kentg
3
Which side will succeed ? Bullet back to buyers ! - LDTP #11.2Let's do the point ! // Update #11.2 Short update just to say that the situation is similar as yesterday, so same speech as yesterday (you can find it in the related idea) but just invert it. We are now looking for buyers to shot down sellers, we are on critical level actually (but getting rejecting again while I'm writting it). The primary support broke yesterday, so we are now more in a pattern of inverted triangle (enlargement figure). In term of probabilities it's not the most more relevant for continuation or reverse so that don't change a lot a things. I wrongly draw the demand area on the last chart, like I said in the initial idea, we are in a delayed bottom so the demand area is higher than the bottom. It made the job yesterday picking in it to find a reaction of buyers. I maintain my analysis that two strong hand are fighting here for long term position, I continue to believe it will squeeze at the end with a lot of volatility. Like, follow or comment* if you like, I need it to continue
by Kentg
Pressure continue to rise ⚠️ LDTP #9.1Let's do the point ! // Update #9.1 New selling pressure session today, compression under the resistance continue and confrontation between buyers and sellers always going on. The interesting thing of today is to see btc unfollowing the us speculation market and outperform bearish moves. The close of the market show it well, we loosed all the gain after it. Not the type of things bullish peoples want to see. The edging position always do the job, in contrast I start to see a Wyckoff distribution on 1 hour timeframe, with a spring it could be a stop but for the moment volumes are falling a little and spring need volumes. I always aim for at least a pullback in the imbalance, the only way to see a bull continuation is now a breakout, which mean (like I said yesterday) initiate an uptrend. Like, follow or comment if you like, I need it to continue ! "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" NB : I just took a look at the trending ideas, nothing changed. However I take in count the trend to add clickbait emoji on graph, I hope you like it, say me what you think of it, I hope you enjoy 😎
by Kentg
3
⏭ Compression on key area = Confrontation of forces ⏮ - LDTP #9Let's do the point ! Much things to say here. Don't really know where to start so we will do a recap first : 💡 LDTP #7 ▶️ Long daily entry pattern (bottom of red rectangle represent stop loss, bottom of green rectangle represent breakeven level, top of green rectangle represent first target, higher you find the speculative area for the second target) 💡 LDTP #8.1 ▶️ Confirmation of the rotation of dynamics in the market cyclicality 💡 LDTP #8.2 ▶️ Wyckoff Pattern with a scary positionning here for a spring, important to read the idea to understand all the issues with an interesting comment too (Yellow rectangle for the support area, Blue for the resistance, annotations for the temporality) ✏️ CHART ▶️ Highest yellow line for the primary daily resistance, blue for the support and so both forming channel, lowest yellow line for the primary weekly support, $28,100 - $32,900 rectangle is the weekly trend support area 🔥 H1 SHORT ▶️ Just positionned short to edge the long one (go check it for more details), purple rectangle is the imbalance created by the breakout of the resistance, which take the role of first target too. All ideas are attached under, go check it to see more details. I will not hide that I would prefered to see the market breakout this yellow resistance which mean we was going for a target on the long position but like expected on an answer someone asked me this week on the wyckoff idea we see a strong reaction on the resistance. We can already notify of a bull exhaust + selling pressure combined to buying volumes, which mean we have a compression on the level due to the oppositions of strengths (buyers/sellers) motivated probably also by profit taking. So now we have some scenarios in front of us : if it is convert in selling volumes it mean, in our Wyckoff pattern, in a return on support if we come back in the range, and probably to a spring which could be critical (reasons developped in the wyckoff idea) In the case we don't have selling volumes it could occur to a simple pullback on the broken resistance area and now the imbalance area. Like I already explained imbalances are anomalies of market, price is mostly attracked by it to be filled with volumes (except on one-sided trend / bullrun) If buyers overwhelmed sellers we will see a breakout, a buying volume candle and so an uptrend but we will have time to develop it if it happen. In the case we go back into the range, it's become an interesting Wyckoff pattern for you. I developped this pattern a little more in the answer I gave in comment of the wyckoff idea. The diagrams I made on right of the answer show well the missed cycle like opportunity for a B phase to see an STB/new AR in fonction of where it take place. "Making money in trading is math and respect of strategy, so never let your emotions guide you in uncomfortable positions" Let's speak of strategy now. I know that when we are on a top of range it's interesting to imagine it break and making a lot of money, going to the moon and all this things. But trading is a work of precision, and making money is a work a precision too. You make money by controlling details. Signals and levels couldn't be ignored and work have to be done, that why I took a short position on 1 hour timeframe ON SIGNAL & ON KEY LEVEL , not to aim for durable profits but only to edge my daily long position. I explain, we see we are on a level that will probably conclude to a win if we break up and a loss if we break down. I could just cut my position now but it's the opposit of what being profitable ask you. Because that mean you trade with emotions, you have fear so you surrend and probably develop frustration if it finally go to your target. You will not win money if you trade with frustration. But if you take the origin of your fear, it's loss ! So act on your exposure, control your losses, edge your long by a short targeting on profit the amount of your possible loss. Of course this short have to be part of a strategy (we don't do coin flip here), if you aren't profitable in your strategy it's also useless cause you will just raise your exposure. So if I resume : I assume to gave back to the market a part of my gains to also assume to don't take losses. Don't forget that you also win money when you don't lose it. Like, follow or comment if you like, I need it to continue !
by Kentg