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Leading Diagonal

Alternative EURUSD count is becoming my preferred!The so called "Trump effect" was again in play last week as the markets sold the USD whilst he gave his press-conference; so I thought I'd put that theory to the test and have an alternate Elliot Wave count to the upside similar to my original idea EUR Long idea I posted back in Jan 2017. This is again is becoming my preferred count as I anticipate the a massive sell-off of the USD whilst TRUMP is in power! Wave 1: Leading Diagonal (5 waves broken down by 5 X ABC corrective waves) Wave 2: Triple Combo (WXYXZ) which retraced to a key fib level @ 0.618% Current Wave: Wave 3 of 3 looks like it has started signified with an impulsive move up (circle red) Forecast Wave: The current correction could be sub wave 4 so USD could indeed retest the 0.618% mark but the low at 1.03399 should hold. Feel free to share, like and comment. Happy Trading!!
Long
by donaldsaw
BREAKOUT IN EURUSD - 1H CHARTHey Traders, I brought this idea to my mates in the team. We are going to get a breakout in EURUSD I have been monitoring this corrective structure since the end of December, and it looks like a Leading Diagonal, could break into a slow downtrend move, I don't think it will be a sharp move. Gold seems to be dropping from the corrective structure it's broken already so these two possibilities in EURUSD. 1- Sideways consolidation forming a flag will develop into a breakout. (BLUE ARROWS) 2- Sharp moves up will develop a 5th wave in the Leading Diagonal structure. (RED ARROWS) Either way our big trade is the sell! Hope you like it, Carlos
Short
by ccerezo11
2
OIL - CLOSE TO FORMING SIGNIFICANT LOWMy last oil chart posted some 10 months ago anticipated a drop to 35 area in 5 wave decline from Aug 2013 high (chart link below). That has been met and some. Some details have changed from last chart but not in the way that would make significant difference, therefore, I will not repeat the thinking behind my analysis, but rather focus on what I think appears to be clearer and will help in trading planning. Media and commentators are now coming up with some extreme targets and based on some fundamentals, USD strength and geopolitical developments. Therefore, I suspect that the price action could frustrated both the Bulls and Bears before clearer directional move develops. Here is the summary of observation from the chart: 1. The decline from 2008 high is evidently in 3 swings even though it looks very impulsive and dramatic. 2. The rally back up from the low in Jan 2009 to May 2011 is also in 3 swings retracing just over 61.8%. 3. Subsequent decline from May 2011 is also in 3 swings, a, b, c which is 5 wave from Aug 2013 still in progress but could be close to completion, ie it is in final stage, wave "v" of 5. 4. Wave "v" of 5 so far appears to be forming and ending diagonal (falling wedge) though not yet confirmed. 5. The drop so far since May 2011 has reached approx 75% of the price and historically in 1990 and drop in 2008 both terminated at 75% & 77% (approx) respectively (see chart below) 6. If the above observations hold and in particular we have final wave "v" of 5 as ending diagonal, then the low could form between 25 - 27 or little lower but doubt it will hit 20 which is widely expected in the media. 7. Low in this region would make a total retracement of 88.6% of the move from 1998 low to 2008 high and is in proximity of other Fib projections. Beyond that, since the price action has breach the 2009 low, the idea outlined previously of potential triangle is no longer in play. Instead what we might have (not confirmed) is a leading diagonal which has 5 waves consisting of 3 swings each, ie 3-3-3-3-3. OR some other combinations. Regardless then anticipated rally will be limited to 60 -70 zone before further weakness develops. Under this scenario the 2008 high would not be surpassed for many year to come. May be even decade or more to come. However in the meantime the anticipated low will allow longer term bullish trade to be considered directly on Oil or shorting the companies whose energy bills form significant part of operating cost such as airlines and transport. As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, constructive comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV danv-charting.com
FX:USOILLong
by DanV
41
EUR Leading Diagonal Pattern Opens the Door for LongsLast night, we posted about the potential for a leading diagonal on the EURUSD (see the notes at the bottom of “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote”). The pair has continued to play that tune which implies: • A tradable low is in place at 1.0915 which coincides with scenario #2 in the “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote” (see green notes on the original chart) • The 1.0915 ended 4 degrees of trend and likely kicks off a green circle ‘c’ wave higher which subdivides into 5 waves • Look for a 50-78% retracement on the diagonal to time a long entry (1.0960-1.1020) • Target 1.1250 and 1.1470 • If prices break above 1.1125 BEFORE hitting the retracement zone of 1.0960-1.1020, then consider a breakout long trade A print at 1.0914 means this analysis is incorrect so we have the opportunity for a good risk to reward ratio long trade. Also, SSI continues to be weighed towards sellers at -1.69. Sentiment can be used as a contrarian signal which suggests prices may rise. These traders who are short become future supply of buyers as they are already committed to their position. Additionally, with the analysis posted yesterday on the USDCAD (bullish), this may open the door to consider long EURCAD. EURJPY may have some bullish juice in it too. I’ll post those if any clean EW counts or RR ratio trades can be identified. Though this post is written to the tune of the higher probability leading diagonal scenario. Other scenarios do exist. I have listed the top 4 as I see them. For those Elliotticians, what other scenarios are you considering on EURUSD?
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
23
Wolfe Wave - An Intraday Long Setup on the Bearish EURUSDHello again, I'm witnessing a perfect, textbook Wolfe Wave setup in our greatest pattern forming pair, EURUSD. It's basically a Leading Diagonal, which means it's a First Wave of a new Five Wave down move. But as Elliott suggests, there would be a sharp and fast correction after this 1st wave completes. I've counted the internal waves and as the 3rd wave iii cannot be shorter than the 5th wave in a Leading Diagonal, I'll be putting my Buy Limit Orders in the rectangular area. My stop would be at 1.2246 where Wave v gets bigger than Wave iii. My target is what Wolfe Wave Principle Suggests: at the conjunction of the vertical line from the triangle apex and the line connecting the end of wave i and wave iv. There's a nice Risk/Reward on this trade and the stop is tight and clear. So have fun trading EURUSD today. Until next time, take care.
Long
by DavoodWadi
3