Live CattleJune Live Cattle was up aggressively today charging up to 105.40 breaking the downtrending wedge. The previous Gartley pattern that was inset is no longer possible. The new pattern is a bullish butterfly. Next target for bulls 106.375, and if they can pull it higher the 141 extension to 108.100. There is still a possibility that a double top can be formed here at 105.625 but seeing that this market has tried several times to go lower just to be kicked up higher, we don't see this as big possibility. Support at 103.700 position 3 of the elliot wave.
Livecattle
June Live Cattle Moving LowerJune Live Cattle fell off the Cypher pattern and moved under the 20 day moving average to close near 38.2% retracement. Possible continuation lower to 50% retracement, then 61.8. Found first support from position 3 of the elliot wave. Next major support at 71.8 level created at th AB leg of the Cypher pattern at 101.050 and July 22 of last year.
Live Cattle correcting before next run upIt looks like Live Cattle is pausing to correct before next run up. On the 2hr renko chart (blksz .50), the charcoal box represents what the 5min renko (blksz .25) expands out to. I think that the 5Min will need to go through a corrective cycle prior to price continuing up.
June Live Cattle Overshot ButterflyJune Live Cattle has completed a Bearish Cypher and Elliot Wave 1-5 position. Look for a possible downward trend to 100.650. Waiting for move below the 20 day moving average for confirmation. There is also a potential butterfly to 111.100 if this markets breaks out of 105.5. The overbought situation may counter any bullish move here.
Live Cattle Rises out of FlagFeb Live Cattle broke out of a flag pattern today and almost reached 116 and the final leg of the Elliot Wave. If we go back to 2016-08-11 and place another Butterfly, the potential upside could be 119 and then 126. This could extend Elliot Wave position 5 to 119. Beyond that you aren't within Elliot Wave general parameters. This market has touched overboughtness and may be coming to another end. Live Cattle still in the Gann Fann of 1/1
Feb Live Cattle Dug itself out of a holeFeb Live Cattle was a disappointment this morning as corn rose, but rallied back to produce a higher price. Look for progression Wednesday. Corn prices surged as sales in corn are up 39% over USDA projection. Cattle market could turn into chop if corn continues higher. Elliot Wave is still intact, but chop could weaken it substantially. Looking for Cattle to continue up and reach top of Cypher and possible continuation to Butterfly.
Feb Live Cattle hits Elliot Wave Position 4Feb Live Cattle ended the day exactly at the 38.2 Fib and Elliot Wave position 4. Look for possible continued down trading if bears want cheaper beef, hammer up at end of day Monday, or up market at the beginning of trade day. Goal 116 top of Elliot Wave and 161% or XA Butterfly.
Feb Live Cattle Sells to PositionFeb Live Cattle sold down to 38.2 retracement from move 3 of the Elliot Wave to position 4. Monday will tell if this is a continuation to position 5 or a continued sell off to 50%. Support from Sept 22 may hold at around 109. Upside potential to 116 completion of the Butterfly.
Feb 2017 Live Cattle Live Cattle traded up to my 113.225 area and completed the Cypher pattern. Look for possible Butterfly to 116 or downward action to position 4 of the Elliot Wave. Watch for hammer green at end of trading day. If red downward action most likely. If green, possible continuation upward to 116. Bulls still in control.
ARSUSD: Long pesos, yes...long.Here I am with a little contrarian idea.
There's a nice 15% spread to be filled when comparing the Argentine peso to the other South American economies.
The stock market also took a nose dive and is poised to retrace, since it's possible that live cattle and soybeans will head up from this point (and the Merval has a healthy correlation with those two among other agriculturals, for obvious reasons).
That being said, to my fellow countrymen, this is a nice low risk trade, upside is 15%, downside is merely 2%. Sell dollar for 13, buy back at 10-11, give or take, and or invest in other assets once we reach that target.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.