The "Beast" still giving bull signals but must stop somewhereSo since the last idea, The "Beast" came to within 9 pips of 88 and gave us 3 very good shorts from 19th (Wed). 87.9 - 84.9 ($3 or 300 pips) on 190122, 87 - 83 ($4 or 400 pips) on 200122 (Thu) and 85.5 - 84 ($1.50 or 150 pips) on 210122.(Fri) We closed 80% of shorts at 83 and entered new longs from 83 but closed 70% of them gracefully at 85.5 for $2.50 in the other direction
We will hold the 30% until we get confirmation that the short is going to continue. If not we will hold these partial longs to the outrageous 88 + targets as there are plenty Red manipulation candles up there to be recovered.
The confluences leading us to think this thing can still be Bullish is that there has been a Blue Vector candle printed at the top. This normally means that the buying isn't done, even when price drops before the rise. ($5.20 or 520 pips was the drop overall from 14:00 UTC 4hour candle top wick to 22:00 UTC 4hour candle bottom wick)
The fact that we had a 4 hour close in the box above, a strong rejection back into the box from which we came but ultimately a failure to break down out of the box and further down could be a Bullish signal. The end of Friday saw a charge up and an attempt to get to the top of the box again. It ultimately rejected price back down for that last $1.50 (150 pips) short (in the form of a Red Vector candle), only to recover $1.30 (130 pips) of that short back up to 84.8 to close for the week.
Lastly the fact that all of that activity resulted in a close back above the 50 EMA in the 4 hour timeframe. It must be noted though that it has used the 50 EMA in the 4HR as a launch pad 5 times including this most recent ($2.70) move away from it. But the fact that it is here for the 5th time could spell the beginnings of the end of the recent uptrend. It has used the 50 EMA as a launch pad for more bullish movement 9 times at the most in the year of 2021 so that also needs to be bared in mind.
The Daily TF has been embedded on the RSI to the upside since 081221 and price has ultimately been on the up continuously overall since then (however it has just been lost ever so slightly)
NB THIS IDEA IS ONLY BULLISH UNTIL THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT BEARISH SIGNALS AND FAILURES TO CLOSE ABOVE CERTAIN LEVELS. BUT IS BULLISH UNTIL THEN
NOW BEARISH VIEW
Why was the last short on Friday only $1.50(150 pips)? This is suspect and has us a little scared to put our feet up on the shorts from 87.9
There was something we said on one of our previous ideas a few weeks back about when Oil gives you a good short, one of 2 things are happening. Either it is the beginnings of a juicy short or that it would be a Bear trap like the many before and we would see a rally up that would rise more than the fall and make a new high.
When that happened, we had just had a $2.60 short and went on to rally up $10 as of wed 190122. We have had a $5.20 fall followed by a $2.70 rise so far. If this wants to double the distance of the fall in the form of a rise, we could be looking at new Bull targets right up to $93.8
For the Bearish view, We need to see a FAILURE TO GET OUT OF THE BOX (clear break and close above 85.7) that it was beaten back into in the 4hr timeframe maybe coupled with some Purple Vector candles at the high to indicate a more substantial drop coming.
If we also see the Daily timeframe lose it's embedded officially, then this really will spell the beginning of a big drop.
If we see what we need to see for Bearish confirmations we are aiming at the following levels to visit before any rising continues as this is where Green Vector candles are:
82.17
80.47
79.47
77.8
75.7
75.25
74.8
If anyone is holding from 87.9 and even hold a small position to any of these Green Vector candle levels you are in for a small fortune by the time it gets where you are going.
All Bullish and Bearish targets are pretty much labelled on the chart.
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
