USOUSD Spot Oil Jumps on Geopolitical Escalation LONGSpot Oil on 30-minute chart had a slow rise in the past 24 hours followed by a pause and then a
jump on the Israeli retaliation strikes into Iran. Middle East oil shipping in the Red Sea and
Persian Gulf are at risk and shipping insurance for ongoing shipments is likely to experience
heavy rate increases if shipping does occur. Houthi rebels may resume proxy attacks on the
behalf of Iran. New sanctions contemplated against Iran may include increased action on oil
exports and the Israelis could target oil infrastructure. Overall, spot oil now has a bullish
bias. I see good cause to increase oil based positions at this time. My target for spot oil
based on VWAP lines currently on the chart is 87.5 about 4% upside without leveraging.
The volume indicator shows increased buying volumes relative to selling. The PVT shows a quick
burst of trend momentum while the TTM indictor triggered and has an upgoing histogram.
Longbigoil
OXY Buy the Dip LONGOn the 4H OXY is in a long up trend in part supported by the buy of Mr. Buffett
In the intermediate term as shown on the chart, it is in a slowly rising parallel channel
while at present it is at the bottom of the channel sitting on the POC of the long term
volume profile and near to the lower Bollinger Band. I see this as a buy low sell high
opportunity, The is confirmed with the MACD a lagging indicator with the lines below
the histogram and not yet crossing over. Spot oil may be at a pivot point and
OXY is setting up long.
OXY Early Breakout from FLAT BOTTOM TRIANGENYSE:OXY
OXY has market momentum with the ongoing Buffet buying frenzy.
It has been in a pattern since the spring 2022 Buffet buying that is a flat bottom
triangle. The latest buying seems to be resulting in
a breakout from the triangle yet without retest.
Rising relative strength on the RSI serves to validate the move.
Buffet seems to know that the current inflation is a headwind for growth
for the alternative energy sector while Big Oil is drowning in cash
and buying back stock relentlessly. A
ll in all , OXY IS A STONG BUY even if spot oil and futures prices are drifting lower.
if the retest fails and OXY returns to the triangle in conjunction with
oil prices decreasing and the general market sideways, I will take
some put options for a few months.