NZD/CAD - SHORTNZD/CAD shorts nearly in play, waiting for the close of the second bearish candlestick to go short on the break of the TL. Down side targets of 0.93100. 1:3 risk reward, lets see how this one plays out!
LOWS
AUD/NZD - BREAK OR BOUNCE? Double top formation showing strong resistance at around 1.07524. From the second high point on the double top there has been an MA downside crossover and a strong bearish movement down to the weekly trend line support which we are now sitting on. We could see a break of this trend line and see new 2016 lows or we could see a potential bounce from this trend line. I will be waiting to see a break of this trend line before entering a short order on this pair.
GBP/USD Lowest Low Ever! Hey Traders, I'd really like to know what any Faders think about about this chart.
July 2016: Lowest Low Recorded Ever.
What do you think is next based on your experience and expertise. All opinions are welcome!
Daily gold overview I will try to monitor and post in comments section every day my view on gold. And call some trades for future if I see them. I will use for this just candlestick analysis and daily weekly monthly swing highs lows as well as some trend lines to prove for my self one more time how important those pivots are in trading no matter you long term trader medium term or inraday. Hope somebody will find some ideas what can by used in own trading system.
GBP/USD - IMPACT OF THE EU REFERENDUMOn the monthly chart above i have posted key points in previous years where the pound has taken a dive against the dollar. August 2008, the recession hits, the value of the pound drops from nearly 2.00000 to 1.35300 in 6 months. August 2012, the economy enters a double-dip recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy. Now, late June 2016 following the UK's decision to vote to leave the EU we have seen the value of GBP plummet, a 1700 pip loss in one day, reaching lows last seen in 1985. During this time of uncertainty and turmoil it is hard to see the pound recovering any of its value in the near future. I see the UK economy potentially entering another recession after the news of yesterday. Furthermore, due to this assumption, i have projected GBP to fall to the levels of 1.25000 - 1.20000 in the upcoming months. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
WFC and other Financials Looking Grim WFC has been unable to gain 50.5-51 resistance for months now, and the chart may indicate that it is time to retest lower. the last weekly level retest was 44.59, which bounced strongly and reversed. if 46.6 is lost, we should look towards 43.2 for next support test.
Lower still is 41.65 and 38.03 as well as others, but these levels may not apply for some time
BAC TO MAKE NEW YEARLY LOWS?= Great R/R for SHORTTechnical analysis of BAC's chart indicates strong levels of resistance at 18, and 15.25, the latter of which has just seen a completed double top in the past few weeks
This indicates that we should break lows and test lower, 9.9 and 8.27 (more significant) supports are supports we could test.
let me know what you think
EUR/JPY - SHORT!Above shows an overview of the previous 3 years of the EUR/JPY. Above i have highlighted what i believe are a few key support levels in watching the meltdown of the EUR/JPY. The market has been consistently bearish for the past 12 months, and after the break of 120.00 we have seen a further decline to around 119.00. I believe once we see a break of the previous support set in 2013 of around 118.700 we could see a further decline to at least 117.00 very rapidly. Let me know your thoughts and trade set ups for this bearish pair.
GBP/JPY - 2016 SUPPORT TESTEDGBP/JPY - 3 year lows and 2016 support level currently being tested. Expecting a bounce from support and to hit targets as shown above. Will wait for confirmation before entering a trade. If this pair breaks the support level, i expect to see huge bearish movements throughout next week. Will look to see how this one opens next week before entering a trade.
finally breack from it's rangethanks to quit bad data coming from the us , spx has finally breack from it's range to give us quit a perfect short . So whatto do now ? looking for some profit taking in the market to give us the opportunity to reenter short on the market . Because now that pa has closed below the ma on the daily we will be lloking for it to to sustain a pull back to confirm a shift of trend to be able to enter for longer term target , wich imo the fundamental back up very much ! So my game plan for the week is to look at pa to give us reason to enter on the 1 and 2 highlight level on the chart !
AudUsd recovering after break of weekly trendlineAudUsd has broken above weekly trendline down and it is acting as support now
(blue line on the chart)
We see some kind of closing wedge pattern emerge above this support
The pair rejected the lows of 0.70 a couple of times, and is supported below by red trendline now
Resistance here comes from 50 and 100SMA, but these should be broken to the upside soon
and the pattern should be broken to the upside, too
Entry point anywhere between current price and 0.7050
SL is 0.70 - below pattern, TP is the red trendline (200SMA) around 0.72
Gl
Prediction of low in Xag/Usd 12.6Monthly trendline up from 2002 lows comes in at around 7!
Monthly trendline down has been broken to the upside and has held
But fibonacci expansion 0.61.8% from last two moves up are both just below 14
If price breaks below 13.8 again we may see 100% fibonacci expansion level from last move - at least!
This is just above 12
So: buy between 14 and 10.5 (100% fibonacci expansion level from initial move up after break of monthly trendline down held) and target at least 38.2% fibonacci retracement monthly - lows to 50
So: around 22 TP -- SL below monthly trendline 7
I am in 100USD at 14 - so SL will cost me $700 - TP(0.5) = 22 (first TP) = $400, second TP(0.5) = 61.8% = 37 = $1150
My prediction is that low will be Xag/Usd = 12.6 = 100% fibonacci expansion of last move
A year later we will be above 30
GOLD Short to 1014Gold has been bearish for a long time now and is showing now signs of reversing just yet. We recently broke the lows of 1082 before retesting but price has stalled around this area. Today we finally saw the bears take hold and dive the commodity lower.
We need to tread carefully given the Fed announcement on Wednesday but as it stands this is head south.
Downside target 1014
MACRO VIEW: MICEX IN USD RISKS ANOTHER BREAKDOWNRusian MICEX index, measured in US dollars is on risk of another severe breakdown.
Price is now currently trading at a key level - converged lower 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means (@ 24.75)
If the level is taken out, price will be open to fall to its relevant lows @ 23
and If those are broken down, next target would be 18.5 - the 2014 lows, reached at the peak of USDRUB December spike
MACRO VIEW: NATURAL GAS RANGEBOUND TRADINGNatural gas is trading sideways within 1st standard deviation on quarterly basis (in relation to 66-day mean) since May 2015.
This creates good trading opportunities for those who know how to deal with the lateral chop in the markets.
Within compressing volatility (measure by 3.2 st deviations from the same mean), traders can pick longs and shorts toward the mean, when price approaches the 1st standard deviation from within.
Stops should be placed a bit beyond relevant highs and lows, tagging of which will hint that a leg of trend is actually in the cards.
MACRO VIEW: EURUSD BREAKDOWN RISK EURUSD has been trading laterally since mid-Arpil 2015, with price staying within the 1st standard deviation from its quarterly (66-day) moving average.
Currently there is apparent risk of breakdown: the price fell to the lower 1st standard deviation from the quarterly from within amid expanding volatility, measured by 3.2 st deviations from the same mean.
If price breaks down below the 1st st deviation (@ 1.0930) - there will be a very high probability of further downmove. The breakdown will be confirmed if the price falls below its relevant lows (@ 1.0880 and 1.0790)
The potential EURUSD downtrend will come in line with the downtrend on WTI Oil, with which EUR is correlated nowadays.
AUD/USD: chanche to get in SHORTConfluences:
1/ Trend
2/ Pin bar ( undecision - continuation? )
3/ 0.74 level used as resistance
4/ Fundamentally very weak AUD against the strong USD
USDCAD continues upward march - how to manage your tradeI wanted to share this trade idea because its a great example of how to manage your trades once the market moves in your favor.
Notice that since I got in a big hurry to get in this trade, my entry, while decent, could have been much better. If I had just waited a few more days with a nice limit order sitting on the red sliding parallel, then I would have had an outstanding entry location with an extremely small stop. Well...make a better plan next time and deal with this trade now.
Now that we have formed a nice new swing low as price is climbing upward, I can move my stop upwards to the red line at 1.0905. When another swing low forms and its confirmed by taking out highs, I will move my stop up again below that.
I'm also working my profit target order upwards along the upper channel as price moves to the right on the chart.
Some basic info on making your trading plan and sticking to it: www.itradingforex.com
