LUNAUSDT Is it coming back from extinction?The story of Terra's (LUNAUSD) crash back in May 2022 is well known to everyone in the cryptospace. Shortly after its collapse and following the last dead-cat-bounce on September 09 2022, the price entered a Channel Down pattern in the last 14 months.
In recent price action we see the possibility for a technical comeback though as not only has it reached today the top of the Channel Down but also is about to form the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame since August 17 2021!.
As a result, we will turn bullish if a 1D candle closes above the Channel Down, targeting 2.500 (near Resistance 1). An early bullish break-out signal can be seen on the 1D MACD where it just formed a Bullish Cross on a Higher Lows trend-line. The same pattern during the last bullish leg within the Channel Down, after forming the Bearish Cross didn't invalidate it so quickly.
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Lunausdsignals
LUNAUSDT Hit the bottom of its 6 month Channel Up*** ***
For this particular analysis on TERRA we are using the LUNAUSDT symbol on the Phemex exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D chart with the blue trend-line being the 1D MA50 and the orange trend-line the 1D MA200. As shown, LUNAUSD has been trading within a Channel Up ever since its December 2021 High. Two Higher Lows and another Higher High have followed, forming the bullish trend on this Channel.
Today the price hit the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of this long-term Channel Up on the liner scale. On the log scale, there is still some room for a complete pull-back, which happens to be on this diverging Higher Lows trend-line as illustrated on the chart. The RSI (1D) is exactly on the level (oversold 30.000) where the last Higher Low was priced on January 30 2022. If those Support levels hold, we expect LUNA to gradually start the new rally to a Higher High within the Channel Up.
Attention is needed, as this time besides the 1D MA50, it also has the 1D MA200 as a Resistance on the short-term. Potential confirmation comes if the price breaks above it. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($97.000) can be used as a medium-term target with the 1.236 ($135.000) being the long-term (which priced the previous Higher High).
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LUNAUSD Update for the next 3 months. Target $160.00.My last Terra (LUNAUSD) analysis was in late February where I set a medium-term target of $130.00:
Even though the price "only" managed to scratch the $120 mark, that was good enough for those who bought into the rally and naturally the price dropped on heavy profit taking.
As you see the fractal comparison with the early 2021 Cycle played out fairly well. From September to November 2021, the fractal extended its rise through a steadier and more structured Channel Up formation. That pattern in a little more than 3 months reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
That extension is currently a little above $160.00 and that is our target by mid Summer.
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LUNAUSD UP Trend.!#LUNAUSD Looking for Buy trade setup as I mentioned in the Chart.!
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LUNAUSD ANALYSISPlan A: Short
If it comes back again and retests 119 and makes double top go for short.
SL : 125
TP 1 : 110
TP2 : 105
TP3 : 97
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Plan B: Long
If it bounces from fib 0.5/0.618 then go for Long till 118
SL : 95
TP 1 : 105
TP2 : 118
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Long Plan B:
If breaks above 119 with proper wick body then go for long till 134 based on Bullish flasg pattern.
S.L : 116
TP1 : 125
TP2 : 134
P.S: All the details of my analysis are attached below. Cheers!!!
LUNAUSD Worst case scenario = $130LUNA is having a strong rebound in the past week or so but based on this long-term pattern, not as strong as the one that is about to come.
According to this, the worst case scenario for LUNAUSD is to be trading within a (green) Channel Up, which on its more modest outcome in August 2020, it made a rally and peaked just above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. That means a price target of at least $130 on the short-term. If on the other hand it follows the more optimistic scenario of January 2021, then the rally that is about to start may take a huge parabolic turn but of course that would suggest a market cap for LUNA that many in the market would deem unrealistic at this stage. In either case, our exit signal should be when we see the 1D RSI forming a Lower Highs bearish divergence similar to July - August 2020 and February - March 2021.
Which of the two paths do you think it will follow?
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