MKRUSD Channel Up top hit. Pull-back expected.We last looked into Maker (MKRUSD) 4 months ago (see chart below) where we called for a buy that eventually hit our 1600 target:
This time we are making a sell call as the price hit the top of the 5-month Channel Up. Our target is just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1500, which has been the pull-back level of the last two medium-term corrections within the Channel. It is likely that the market tests the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) there, before it rebounds aggressively for the 2024 parabolic rally.
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Makersignals
MKRUSD Buy confirmation above the 1W MA100.Maker (MKRUSD) broke and closed the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in ten days, after rebounding on the Higher Lows trend-line. Along with the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, this is an initial buy signal that will get confirmed after the price closes a 1D candle above the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which caused a rejection on August 02. When this happens, we will take the bullish break-out signal and target 1600 (+62% rise as the previous two rebound legs).
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MKRUSD under heavy Resistance. Bearish below it, bullish above.Maker (MKRUSD) has had an incredible bullish run since June 12, being currently on the 6th straight green 1W (weekly) candle. This rally has taken a stop on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) two weeks ago but more importantly it faces an even stronger Resistance from the October 03 2022 High at 1165.
This is taken from the previous Cycle and the early 2019 fractal where after MKR again broke above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it failed to close above the October 08 2018 Resistance and turned into a wide and long-term Accumulation Phase for 1 year.
As a result, we currently believe that until the price closes a 1W candle above the Resistance, it will most likely pull-back to the 1W MA50.
If however it closes above the Resistance, this fractal will get invalidated and we will buy the bullish break-out towards Resistance 2 at 2300.
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MKRUSDT Rejected on the 1D MA200. Bearish unless this breaks.*** ***
For this particular analysis on Maker we are using the MKRUSDT symbol on the OKX exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where MKR is shown trading on its long-term bearish pattern which is a Channel Down (1) since August 23 2021 High. There is also a diverging Channel Down (2) that started on November 26 2021. Maker's impressive rise yesterday stopped just below the top of that Channel Down and even more so on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been a major Resistance throughout this bearish trend.
As you see, the last two emphatic rejections for MKRUSDT have been on exactly on the 1D MA200 (April 05 and May 11 2022) and both resulted into strong sell-offs below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). With the 1D RSI rejected also on the 80.000 vastly overbought level (the highest RSI reading since April 22 2021), it is quite likely that the price will follow a similar selling sequence, on the short-term at least, towards the 1D MA50 or even the 4-month Support Zone (651.00 - 583.00).
Yesterday's rejection simply shows that technically, the coin remains bearish on its +1 year selling pattern. In order to see a reversal on its long-term trend to bullish, we need to see the candle closing above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which has been unbroken since December 09 2021.
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MKRUSD The striking similarities with Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle.This is a remarkable resemblance between Maker's (MKRUSD) price action since the May 2021 High with Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Bear Cycle of 2018. I've mentioned numerous times that the crypto market's price action in the past +12 months can be viewed as a smooth (for crypto standards) Bear Cycle as a whole.
As for Maker's 2021/22 price action we see that it shares striking characteristics with Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle:
* The rebound after the initial crash that followed the Market Top, reached as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
* After that, both Cycles started a gradual decline under a Lower Highs trend-line.
* That eventually led to a capitulation sell-off , where Maker is at today and where Bitcoin formed its December 2018 bottom and then started to slowly recover into the new Bull Cycle.
* That capitulation sell-off is similar in both cases (-58% for Maker and -52% for Bitcoin).
* Bitcoin made the Cycle bottom on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (measured from the initial crash's low). Maker's -0.5 Fib ext is around 935.00, not far from today's 1030 low.
* Bitcoin's 2018 Bear Cycle from top to bottom lasted for exactly 1 year. Maker completes 372 days today from its May 2021 High.
What do you make of all those striking similarities? Has Maker bottomed or is it about to and gradually start a new Bull Cycle? Why do you think it has copied so closely Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle after all? Let me know in the comments section below.
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