USDT.D (Full Chart Analysis-Long-Term)Hello Friends.
How are you? Hope you always be happy and successful
Today I want to talk about USDT.D
in another words, I want to talk about the dominance of Tether.
the situation is complicated.
I want to check this item based on Ichimoku, channel line, and classic pattern. so, let's go into details.
based on Ichimoku, the future cloud is getting green(positive)
Tenkensen is above Kijunsen and it's a sign to prove us the chart is bullish.
based on the Classic pattern, we have an Ascending Triangle. As you know it's a continuation pattern. and I expect this trend to continue.
if dominance succeeds in breaking 8.21% and then 8.51%, the next target will be 9.45%.
that's a border of a huge dropping in altcoins.
if dominance is able to stabilize above 9.45%, everything will be changed and the main target of this movement will be 15%
it means that you will see a lower low in all markets.
And you should expect it to drop more than you think.
it's my favorite theory. I think it will happen soon.
let me check based on the channel line in the weekly time frame.
As you can see, we are moving in an ascending channel.
we had three hits at the top of the channel and four hits at the bottom of the channel.
it means that this channel is validated.
at this time we are moving around the midline. This move to the top of the channel is expected to be around 15%.
If these three conditions occur, everything will be changed. and you can buy for example Bitcoin for around 9800-11500 USD for the first level. and maybe cheaper.
sounds great.
who doesn't like it?
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Sincerely Yours
Ho3ein.mnD
Market-collapse
Edge of a Precipice Will we ever see VIX at 16 again?
Here I explain the mean reverting nature of VIX.
Then I predicted exactly were VIX and JHEQX would be on Friday, October 7th.
Now we're sitting at the edge of a precipice of the worst financial disaster in history.
So I wrote an indicator to give us retail traders an inside eye so maybe we could catch a long vol opportunity of a lifetime.
If you understand how a large institution positions assets and how they hedge against a market correction you can a) find these hedges and b) use dealer positioning to predict it.
That brings us back to VIX.
Vix is calculated using SPX Weekly options rather than stocks.
If Vix sustains higher levels for longer it is telling us liquidity is bad.
As more institutional players position to the downside eventually there will be too much money on the same side of the boat and the boat will flip.
Think of market participants as people on a boat and the waves are volatility.
As the seas get more violent (swings up and down in market price) people on the boat are going to try to find a position best suited for the volatility.
Ask yourself now, is buying puts a good way to hedge downside?
No.
Fixed strike implied volatility is a disaster.
It has been collapsing for nearly the entire year.
Institutions protecting assets (like British pension fund managers apparently) with puts are getting worse and worse returns hedging with puts.
You may be able to pick off edge as an active trader by buying well timed Puts and cashing in on premium kick for a quick 100% return, but these fund managers holding puts are getting destroyed.
Instead, institutions are piling into selling puts while shorting stocks.
We all know what happens when too many shorts pile in, they frequently get squeezed.
I was expecting short squeezes to take hold when Oil started climbing.
Because the alternative is JHEQX leaning negative into an already crowded short side and a VIX > 32.
And that is exactly what nearly happened on Friday.
If futures drop overnight or price drops below 3580 JHEQX will start selling and the only thing stopping a drop to 3200 will be the FED with its left tail tucked between their legs with some fresh QE.
As a great philosopher once said.
"Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now it's here"