Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 23-Sep-24 to 27-Sep-24Nifty Short, Medium & Long Term : 23-Sep-24 to 27-Sep-24
Nifty closed at 25790 (last week 25356) and touched low & high of 25292-25849 ( all time high)
Market touched new high last week , and broke the key resistance of 25545 provided last week decisively and also crossed Mid Term Resistance 25800 and settled at 25790 ( ( Target Line Provided)
Nifty bank 53797 ( Last week 51938) - As mentioned for last 1.5 months, Bank Index have target of 54000 in medium term ( Currently nearing the target) and support at 49900
Fed Rate Cut by 0.5% made the global market up and triggered increase in Indian Market.
FPI invested 4 Billion $ in Sep till date.
RSI and stochastics levels moved up last week (71% and 93% respectively). MACD crossed the Signal. RSI and MACD shows market will go up further. Caution to be emphasized as Stochastics at overbought level. Q2 results awaited which will pave way for more clearer path in market.
Nifty 25790 Short term ( Short Term : Up)
Nifty short term resistance 25790 as shown in chart.
Support at 25000 , 24650 (Trend line support and Fib Resistance), & 24480 (Fib Support)
Medium Term next target is 26260 ( As shown in chart, The level is the difference between the Aug High and Aug Low from Aug High)- If it crosses 26260, Medium Term is UP. if it moves above decisively next target is 27000.
Medium term Support - 24000
Long Term : Nifty have a target of 28190 ( Fibonacci Resistance). Support at 22800
US started reducting fed rate as expected in Sep 2024, expected it shall continue in reduction of interest rate in next year. US President Election result scheduled in Nov 24. Until then Market may correct if any global news upto19500 as there is strong multiple fib support in this range. RBI in India expected to reduce rate from end of this year.
Caution to be emphasized on Nifty as nifty PE is in high level with high valuation especially in Mid cap & Small Cap. Mutual Funds SIP shall be invested as the goal is for more than 5-10 years at this critical period as the valuation is high.
Those with lesser risk can sell partial portfolio ( 20-30%) stocks which have less valuation and can wait for opportunity to buy when nifty dips upto 22800.
Deploy stop loss of upto 7%-8% which is crucial. More Risky players can have stop loss of trend line resistance of 23750 as shown in the chart.
Fundamentally good stocks can be added as it posted good results on every dip in finance stocks such as CAMS, UTI AMC , HDFC AMC, Manappuram Finance, suryoday small fin, Motilal Fin, Chola Finance, Dr Reddys, Natco Pharma, Cipla, JK Cements, Biocon, Persistent Sys, PI Ind, PNC Infra and Ashoka Buildcon, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank Indian Bank & Punjab National Bank.
Stock Picking is needed at current scenario in Bank, auto, Pharma stocks.
Based on the Q1 results, following stocks can be added to portfolio: There is a possibility of dip to 21000-22000, hence please buy in parcels and every dip of Index and every dip of individual stocks (2-5% of portfolio on each purchase for long term) The above stocks mentioned are based on analysis of top line & Bottom line performance, hence based on the risk and portfolio mix one can add after analysis.
Nifty IT 42204 (last week 43394) indices dipped to 37848 in Jun month, bounced back and reached all time high last week(43632). Later Dipped to 42204 due to profit booking. Recovery of US stock market & awaiting FED rate cut expectation decision pushed the US stocks up and followed by Nifty IT Index last week. NIfty IT is less than SMA 21 level, need clear direction and Q2 results will pave way for the clear direction.
