Russian stock market doubled - now signs of a TOP after electionNews shows Putin's party probably won parliamentary elections in Russia
The Russian MICEX index rallied from 200K at the bottom (March 2020) to over 400K (Sept 2021).
The index put in a small bearish shooting star last week.
Confirmation would be if it broke the rising uptrend connecting lows of past few months
MICEX
ISKJ | Fundamental Growth +30%0. Top Russian Medical Genetic company
1. Develop alternative to Sputnik COVID-19 vacine named Betuvax-CoV-2
2. Russian Health Ministry approves clinical trails of Betuvax at September 27 2021. Clinical trails involve 116 volonteer without chronic diseases
3. Forecast release date midwinter 2021.
4. In case of anual vaccination of 1% Russian population target price: 120 RUB
5. In case of anu vaccination rate of 4%, target: 320 RUB
6. Govermental support rate up to +10-20% price impact
7. Lot's of other medical projects that support ISKJ fundamental price at 85 RUB without Betuvax project impact.
Target price: 125 RUB
Fundamentally Mispriced Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) – PreliminaryCaution: Preliminary Research – not an investment advice
What yesterday looked like a good long, today looks like even better one after the security took a 5% hit today.
What we're looking at: Gazprom mispriced at the fundamental level, giving a chance to almost double – according to the research, one could anticipate an appreciation of anywhere between 82 and 106 per cent. The implied target price range is between RUB 230.51 and RUB 260.73.
Investment horizon: months
Distressed: no
Alternative strategy:
Buy September's call option on Gazprom futures at 20000 (I'd go for more, but there aren't any), if you can find a counterparty.
Wish you x's, fam
Russian stock indices enjoy broad gains since Trump's electionMICEX (ruble denominated index of TOP 50 Russian shares) and RTS (US Dollar denominated) stock indices demonstrate a clear bullish rally since the US President Election Day, marked as vertical line on the charts.
The MICEX index has gained 14,2% since the election to date and 26,7% YTD; RTS performance is even more impressive with 17,7% and 50,9% rise, accordingly, thanks to RUB strengthening in the displayed period.
FXMM could be building a bullish 5 wave, or is it really?FXMM continues growth after breaking 1220 resistance. It is building a bullish 5-wave pattern unless it breaks below broken resistance point (dotted red). The bullish momentum can mark the start of the new uptrend that can last for several years and most likely complete wave 5 at 1.618 fib level(1301.09). A bullish breakout above this level could see wave 6,7,8,9 push to the next Fib targets. The support zone 1114.4-1090 stays valid. We most likely will retest this levels if the Elliott Wave pattern breaks. I will recommend to buy a break to the upside, with profit targets based on structure support.
MACRO VIEW: MICEX IN USD RISKS ANOTHER BREAKDOWNRusian MICEX index, measured in US dollars is on risk of another severe breakdown.
Price is now currently trading at a key level - converged lower 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means (@ 24.75)
If the level is taken out, price will be open to fall to its relevant lows @ 23
and If those are broken down, next target would be 18.5 - the 2014 lows, reached at the peak of USDRUB December spike
MACRO VIEW: MICEX HELD 5-YEAR DOWNTREND TEST (IN USD PRICES)MICEX measured in USD prices (MICEX index divided by USDRUB) has held its 5-year (60-month) downtrend test in May 2015 amid expanding volatility.
On technical basis alone, if the price holds below the 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean (now at 32.42), chances are it will retest 2009 lows (at 16.35) - which is a 50% fall in value.
What makes this situation unique is the fact that it is the first downtrend in MICEX (measured in USD) on 5-year basis in observable history. The history includes the whole 2008/9 crisis - during which the price only fell to the lower 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean, never entering a technical downtrend.
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The best use of this information is the following. If you are an investor holding dollars now and waiting for an opportunity to invest in the benchmark Russian stock index (namely, MICEX), best thing to do now is nothing and wait till the downtrend on the 5-year basis is over (price back within 1st standard deviation from 60-month mean).