Apple Bearish Counter Attack CandlesAAPL Printed a two candle formation known as a "Bearish Counter Attack". This occurs with one up, green candle first day. Second day sees a gap up open, then red, down candle that closes at the same area as the previous up day closed. In the case of AAPL, it was within one cent. Some research has revealed that this formation results in a down day the next day 57% of the time, with the next day being up 43% of the time. See attached image. www.feedroll.com In my opinion this daily move would fall under the "noise" category, as in a previous post I noted the striking similarity between AAPL price action and a harmonic pattern that could very well take AAPL to 250 before any serious fall. See linked idea. Still money to be made both ways inside a bigger, measured move. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
Moneybothways
This Changes Things...Kinda...AMZN printed a Dragonfly Doji today, which is usually a good sign of a reversal when seen at the bottom of a downtrend. See attached image below. So, what do we do now? Well, here's my take. AMZN is a buy above the top wick of the dragonfly, so over 1770 tomorrow. However, the tilt in AMZN remains bearish until 1836 is broken and closed above with conviction. Until that point happens, we may remain within the channel being formed now. Two ways to play that--One is to short at top of channel, go long at the bottom and try to make money on the whiplash price action between the support and resistance. The second is to wait for break below the support or above the resistance to enter. There is an argument to be made for either, that's a personal trading style decision. Personally, still in my Aug 30 put, still in the black just a bit. Now I will decide tomorrow based on price action. Above 1770 I will go long via Sept 06 call options, probably around a 2000 call or so. If it stays below 1770 I think I may roll my put option to the Sept 06 put to gain some time for this consolidation pattern to complete. The Stochastic did not react in any way whatsover to the move today, and combine that with the already bearish tilt of the consolidation/continuation pattern we appear to be in, and my money still thinks down is the more productive bet. But I have been wrong once before, I think it was in 1998 or so...lmfao Honestly, best wishes whatever you decide, there is plenty of money to be made both ways here. I still like short medium term, possible bounce short term. Will reevaluate after tomorrows action, see what the price movement is trying to tell us. Happy hunting, and GLTA!! slideplayer.com
My Best Grand Supercycle Attempt For SPXIn my best guess at where we currently lie in the Grand Supercycle Elliott Wave Theory, I have us in Wave 3 Grand Supercycle, Wave 5 Supercycle, and Wave 5 Cycle. This most likely puts the pullback for Wave 4 Grand Supercycle and A-B-C Correction for Supercycle/Cycle between around 2350-2085, which are .618 levels. However, based on earlier corrections the market tend toward 50% on the A-B-C Corrections, if you throw out the 1929 crash in which the financial protection devices available now were not around. So, if we do lose 50% or so of value from what I believe will be the top of Wave 5 of this Cycle at around 3378 or so, that puts the pullback as low as the 1650's. Keep in mind though, Wave 4 of the Grand Supercycle cannot exceed the Wave 3 top, so no lower than 1576 would be allowed. If this holds true, then we are still looking at a Wave 5 Grand Supercycle extension. This can typically extend to either 1.618 or 2.618 of Wave 1 to Wave 3, which puts the upper level of Wave 5 Grand Supercycle around SPX 10065-10100. SOOOOOO....I personally believe that the "permabears" of the world will never end up on the list of the richest in the world. They will eventually be right once in a while and the market will lose half its value--but a long term bet against the United States Stock Market in any form is a loser. Just one man's opinion. I will continue to try to make #moneybothways while the market twists and turns through options, but on any significant dips I will be sinking my biggest bundles of cash on hand into this perpetual money making machine. Comments welcome, just having a little fun looking at possibilities. Happy hunting and GLTA!!!
No concealer can cover up this short opportunityKMB has climbed all the way back up to its upper resistance, and all indicators and price action show that it is going to be very difficult to pop through it this time. It would appear that a reset for a push on up is necessary, which I do eventually think will happen. In my opinion, a good place to get long this stock would be around the 120-123 area. For now though, some put options should do the trick. OCT 18 P120 goes for 1.00 right now, and I will be initiating a small position in the am. Happy hunting, and GLTA!