Tech sector showing weakness despite gains on election dayWhen comparing tech focused ETFs/indexes, namely $NDAQ and $XLK, we can see that $SPY has recently been outperforming them. My theory is that this is an unusual case and a sign that tech stocks are near tops.
Given that I did not receive the dip I wanted, I have difficulty putting on a short position on tech. There is also the factor that the highs have not been truly swept yet.
Just something to keep an eye on.
$NDAQ/$SPY
$XLK/$SPY
For options plays, it would appear leaps for $NDAQ would be ideal, while short term plays on $XLK would work out. $NDAQ is quite illiquid.
Moneybox
Short XLF not because it is hard, but because it is easyIts top two constituents by weight, JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway's (stinky) B shares, have been performing very poorly in comparison to most stocks:
This along with XLK (tech bubble) and XLE (oil) are, to me, overvalued and must be denied higher prices.
Weekly Rounded Top vs. +30% From the Low: look to long lower?Bullish: Every week since the low has closed green except this week.
Bearish: The last week of each month have been particularly bearish since January.
The overwhelming bull trend that's taken place over the past few weeks have been disorienting. My bias is now leaning neutral. I will consider the downtrend on hold if the monthly closes above the 17th of April high.
Will switch bullish wiith a swiftness once issues with global oil pricing and the pandemic are resolved. Keeping an eye on the China/U.S. trade squabble.
Black lines at the top/bottom are based on support/resistance levels and volume gaps. I should note that I am preferring the futures contract to chart for its longer session vs. the regular SPY chart or index.
Recent oil news:
Lack of available storage, due to it being so darn cheap to stock up on now, led to the dump of the front month futures contract. Oil also expires which explains why months further out are not as affected.
www.bloomberg.com
www.aljazeera.com
www.wsj.com
Recent coronavirus/COVID-19 news (only what could possibly be related to the markets' pricing):
Possible vaccine, mRNA-1273, currently in human trials and stocks such as MRNA and GILD megapumped. Vaccines require time for trials/mass production, so it would be interesting to see how price would react the next time when a solid date on vaccine delivery is announced for...every country? I don't believe there's a globally accepted guideline on vaccine distribution.
www.nasdaq.com
time.com
www.who.int
Recent China/U.S. e-fight news:
TBD
There's a lot of articles out there without any proper coverage. Repeating old news in new publishments and talks related to the virus. The latter is important but oftentimes involves too much speculation and journalist bias.
NATGAS, THE ONE NOT IN THE NEWSwww.cftc.gov
COT's managed fund traders flipping bullish on natural gas near the bottom.
Nonreportables closing longs, a good sign because they're supposed to be the always wrong crowd.
Entry below current price and S/R level because it may be a bad bet. Entry may be missed but it's okay
Bitcoin back up over 7200 for now
Undetermined resistance. Possibly 7350 or 7402. Beyond that, I am hoping for a move towards higher 7k levels. Deribit options were nice because I was able to get out in profit on both my terrible calls and puts while I was asleep. I closed my short and flipped long on futures at 7200, hedging with a 6500 put Dec. 27 expiry.
Quick change to idea while writing this: if it fails to break past 7250 repeatedly it can bounce between 7100-7250 or dip into 7000
Moving forward I am considering:
- Place low priced orders for more puts as price rises (not on the weeklies)
- Hedge short at each possible resistance level and put tight stops on them
- Reduce long (but bitcoin only up so I probably won't do this)
- Hedging at 7250 because it's a round number
I use COINBASE:BTCUSD as the ticker to view because volume on Deribit is currently too low to create 'proper' price action and volume analysis. Note: if you trade on BitMex, never buy their Ups/Downs. Flood on Twitter has done a whole analysis on why it's a terrible idea.
Credits to Crypto Cred/Mayne et. al for SR level + range trading ideals. If you want to learn more/different methods I would suggest looking at their content as well as Trader Dante, tradersz. Murad Mahmudov, TheCryptoDog, and AltcoinPsycho have good content on trading mentality/sentiment analysis. And the others I have forgot (sorry lol).Check my following list or something twitter.com
Note: It'd be ideal to get Deribit's funding ticker or index ticker on TradingView, too. Ideally ideal.
Fade US Dollar IndexIf the weeklies being unable to capture a close above 97.4 is indicative of a longer term downtrend for DXY, the potential gains on USD pairings is hyuge.
Purple marked boxes are my current potential TPs/position flips. I will long USDJPY or USDCHF as a hedge if DXY paaamps but only after closing manually at a large loss
XBTH19 - Long post-December futures expiry discount gap future
Now that Deribit's December futures expired, and CME's/BitMEX's will soon, there should be a un-dump with price going upwards. Price around expiration usually dumps because of everyone pulling out their positions before their contracts are settled. Since March will be the newest futures contract on BitMEX the gap should slowly creep up to spot/index price.
Bitcoin wants to be freeBitcoin pushing to get a candle close over D3 candle range. I believe it should break upwards and retest.
Edit: Daily closed under it while publishing, not too hot.
Possibly leveraging long after a close above D3 candle range. TP at 4.8 and shorting 4.9 as a hedge.
Would short a bearish retest of 3.8 HVN if price gets there. Otherwise I'm staying mostly flat except for my call options (haha..)
Other high cap coins showing confluence:
ETHUSD Quanto looking to re-enter range
EOSUSD looking at a stronger relief level, but not conclusive
DOGEBTC looking to make a rounded top, which may be a bad thing but if BTC bull runs up then the ratio usually lags
ETHUSD - Adam & Eve confirmation above $115
This pattern doesn't appear often because stop runs make uneven bottoms or because a higher low rather than equal bottoms is much more attractive as far as cups going ups is concerned.
Quite the price point to be at. There is a chance that a failed breakout will mean new lows, which is dangerous for Ethereum if its $100 psychological support is not held again. It would be a fat short down to something ridiculous. Maybe $12. Lol!