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Moshkelgosha

Burton Malkiel should Reconsider Market Randomness..!last night I published 3 analyses on 20 tickers and shared the links with my followers. (private posts) 20 out of 20 tickers behave as predicted today..! The odds of being correct is 1 in 1,048,576..! Banks: BAC,WFC,JPM,C,MS,and GS They are all down but they are near their support levels. they could experience a rally before their earnings! Keep your eyes on them for a possible 10% rally. Airlines: AAL, DAL,UAL,LUV,ALK, and SAVE They all made bearish engulfing (except SAVE), in the weekly chart near the upper border of a bearish channel! Lower prices in the coming weeks are the strongest possibility! EV makers: TSLA, LCID, RIVN, FSR, NIO, XPEV,Li, and WKHS All of them rejected their resistance and could experience lower prices, but the exception is LCID which is already at its support! LCID could be the only one to experience higher prices..! Have it on your watchlist! Today's charts: Banks: 6 out of 6 positive..! Airlines: 6 out of 6 negative! EV makers: 8 out of 8 negative: Dear Mr. Malkiel, You need to Update the book you have written in 1973, 5 years before computers became available to public..! Best, Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BACLong
by Moshkelgosha
2
Who did provide the seed money for Ark's first 4 ETFs???What is the difference between average investors and professional investors? There are many, but the most important ones are: 1- Data analysis 2-Systematic approach 3-Strategy 4- ...etc. This list could be very long, but what made living legends like Warren Buffet, Jim Simons, and Micheal J Burry ...etc. is data analysis and their different approach to the data market provided to these legends. There is one factor above all of this and that is Consistency in profit-making..! Warren Buffet believes he is successful in the market because he moved 2 steps forward and part of one back. in the past 60years. Jim Simons, on the other hand, beats Warren buffet exceptional performance in the past 20 years..! Micheal J Burry the true master in detecting bubbles has never had more than -18% performance in a year and it happened just once! Why Cathie Wood does not belong to the above league? Now I would like to look at the performance of Cathie Wood in 2021, 2014-2020, and then, her performance before she founded Ark invest. Digging her past performance provides valuable data..! The Bright side: Ark invest outperformed all major indexes by far..! The Golden ages of Ark invest: 2014-2020 Beating all major indexes by far. The Dark side: The coin flipped in 2021: Ark invest underperformed all major indexes by far..! The most important questions here are : A: What has happened to Ark? B: Why they have negative performance while all major indexes are positive??? To answer this question we should go back in the past a little more: Cathie Woods financial life before Ark invest and at the early stages of Ark invest provides important clues: Two Red Flags: In 2001, she joined AllianceBernstein as chief investment officer of global thematic strategies, where she worked for 12 years, managing $5 billion. She was criticized for performing worse than the overall market during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. In 2014, after her idea for actively managed exchange-traded funds based on disruptive innovation was deemed too risky by AllianceBernstein, Wood left the company and founded Ark Invest. Why did she name the investment management Ark? A devout Christian, Wood found inspiration for her company while reading The One-Year Bible. She often came across passages describing the Ark of the Covenant – the chest said to have held the Ten Commandments – being taken by the Israelites into battle. On the daily devotional podcast Jesus Calling, Wood said her company was founded on faith and added: “As I began to get this idea of a firm going and realized that I was fighting this war, I knew I had to name my company ‘Ark’ for Ark of the Covenant.” ARK's first four ETF funds were seeded with capital from Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital. Who is Bill Hwang??? The Tiger of Wall Street is a Korean-American investor. Bill Hwang was once known as ‘the greatest trader you had never heard of’ – then he lost it all. Bill Hwang, the Wall Street investor who ‘lost’ US$20 billion in days. Other than the catastrophe he created in 2021, he had other Red Flags in his past. In 2013, Bill Hwang was determined to pick up the pieces of a once-promising hedge fund career that had collapsed. Trading losses during the financial crisis had humbled him and the U.S. criminal conviction of his firm for insider trading had knocked Hwang out of the hedge fund game completely. He closed his Tiger Asia hedge fund, which specialized in Asian internet and media stocks, and lost all his clients. He would soon be banned from trading in his favorite market, Hong Kong, and the other Asian markets in which he specialized, Japan and Korea, did not hold the same opportunity. So Hwang turned his attention to the U.S. stock market. Washington, D.C., Dec. 12, 2012 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged the manager of two New York-based hedge funds with conducting a pair of trading schemes involving Chinese bank stocks and making $16.7 million in illicit profits. He and his firms have agreed to pay $44 million to settle the SEC’s charges. The SEC alleges that Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang, the founder and portfolio manager of Tiger Asia Management and Tiger Asia Partners, committed insider trading by short-selling three Chinese bank stocks based on confidential information they received in private placement offerings. March 2021: Bill Hwang stocks Crash: NASDAQ:VIAC NASDAQ:DISCA NASDAQ:BIDU NYSE:VIPS NYSE:TME Interestingly, 4 days before it happened, I predicted it on March 16, 2021 : VIAC: TME: The Grace & Mercy Foundation helps Hwang not paying Capital income tax: The Grace & Mercy Foundation is almost entirely funded by Hwang, who serves as a director with his wife Becky and has given $591 million to the grant-making organization since its founding in 2006, according to IRS Form 990s filed through the end of 2018. More than $500 million of that amount came during the four most recent years of filings, from 2015 through 2018. The foundation’s net assets are listed in its latest filing at $470 million, after paying for operating expenses and gifts to nonprofit groups over the years. Market Manipulators Work together: While many people think I have a personal problem with Ark invest, I'm trying to shine the light on the missing part of this puzzle! So far I found 4 out of many, Cathie Wood Elon Musk Chamath Palihapitiya Bill Hwang ... Reference: en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org www.forbes.com www.scmp.com www.sec.gov
AMEX:ARKK
by Moshkelgosha
14
Pursuit of the the next Tesla..!Most people invest their money in these 3 companies, NIO, LUCID, Rivian, or all of them because they had missed the opportunity to participate in the inflationary phase of the Tesla Bubble..! Unfortunately, now the deflationary phase of the bubble overlap, and they are coming down on the latitude mode..! People who invested in these stocks have lost more than 2/3 of their money and it will not be back soon..! Why? Because these companies do not generate meaningful revenue to become interesting for big players..! I forecast single-digit price tags for all of them in 2022, NIO could go down to 5 or below..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:NIOShort
by Moshkelgosha
32
Story of a Bubble created by ARK invest.You can distinguish a bubble, participate in it take your profit out, and leave the tears to others! Don't you believe it? Check my previous posts on Workhorse NASDAQ:WKHS : Oct 23, 2020: Is the correction finished in workhorse? Jan 6 40 -42 would be the new target! Feb 11 What are my reasons to sell workhorse: 1-multiple attempts but could not close above the channel. 2- lower high - Lower Low pattern in daily candle 3-workhorse experienced a 117% bullish rally in 2021, and usually, after a sharp rally, we will expect a correction. Workhorse experienced a 30-50% correction in the last 3 corrections it had! 4- I had a price target of 40-42 for workhorse when it was 22-23 Feb 23 Feb 24 soon will be below 5..! This art is named Bubbelogy..!
NASDAQ:WKHS
by Moshkelgosha
4
He who profits from a crime, commits it.(Seneca)Have asked yourself why Wallstreet Bets popularity and Best years for Citadel overlaps? Or Why Citadel’s CEO Keneth C. Griffins thanks WSB for creating the best pipeline they ever had? Let’s review some data before making any hypothesis..! Ken Griffin's Citadel raked in $16 billion in 2022, marking the best year for any hedge fund in history. Ken Griffin's Citadel posted a record $16 billion in profits last year, notching the largest gain in history. Citadel Securities is an American market making firm headquartered in Miami. It is one of the largest market makers in the world, and is active in more than 50 countries. The firm has said it handles about 40% of all US retail trading volume and one in every four US equities trades. Over 15 million people use Robinhood as their primary trading platform. Robinhood routes more than half of its customer orders to Citadel, by far its largest market-making partner by volume, Robinhood disclosures show. Robinhood is WSB's weapon of choice, investors and users who have no clue what they're doing. Why WSB users call themselves Apes? The study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2010 was conducted by a team of researchers led by Dr. Benjamin Hayden at the University of Rochester. The aim of the study was to investigate how monkeys make decisions when faced with the possibility of a reward and a risk. In the study, the researchers trained rhesus monkeys to perform a task where they had to choose between two symbols displayed on a computer screen. Each symbol was associated with a different amount of juice reward, but one of the symbols also had a chance of delivering a mild air puff to the face, which the monkeys found unpleasant. The researchers found that the monkeys were willing to take a higher risk when the potential reward was greater, which is consistent with what is observed in human decision-making. However, they also found that the monkeys continued to choose the risky option even when the potential reward was not worth the risk. To test whether the monkeys were aware of the risk and potential loss, the researchers introduced a "no-risk" option, where the monkeys could choose a symbol that guaranteed a small but safe reward with no chance of an air puff. Despite being aware of this option, the monkeys continued to choose the risky option and receive the air puff. This behavior suggests that the monkeys were not making rational decisions based solely on the potential reward, but were influenced by other factors such as the thrill of taking a risk or the fear of missing out on a potential reward. Overall, the study provides insight into how animals, including humans, make decisions when faced with risk and reward. It suggests that our decision-making is not always driven by rational calculations and that other factors such as emotions and social influence can play a role in our choices. Herd Mentality there are some theories and observations related to human behavior in financial markets that suggest that herd behavior and imitation can contribute to market bubbles. For example, some researchers have noted that investors often follow the behavior of others, rather than making independent decisions based on fundamental analysis or market trends. This can lead to a situation where a large number of investors all buy or sell the same assets, creating a "herd" effect that can drive prices up or down rapidly. In some cases, this behavior can contribute to the creation of market bubbles, where asset prices become significantly inflated due to speculation and investor enthusiasm. Eventually, however, these bubbles tend to burst, resulting in significant losses for those who were caught up in the frenzy. I think any rational mind has enough information to conclude the schema we are dealing with in the past 3 years! I would like to end this article with Edward O Thorp quote: When I shifted my focus from beating gambling games to analyzing the stock market, I naively thought that I was leaving a world where cheating at cards was then problematic and entering an arena where regulation and the rule of law gave investors a fair playing field. Instead, I learned that bigger stakes attracted bigger thieves. Best,
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
2
What Is Smart Money?Smart money is capital placed in the market by institutional investors, market mavens, central banks, funds, and other financial professionals. Smart money also refers to the force that influences and moves financial markets, often led by the actions of central banks. Smart money is invested on a much larger scale than retail investments. But do you know why they call themselves Smart? Because their access to data and their analytical ability at any given moment is much higher than retail traders! Bringing the game to the next level: After I publish my analysis for VLO on March 7th, 2022, and mentioned an opportunity to buy at 86-87 level with a 46% gain in less than 6 months: 1- March 8th,2022: - Bank of America added VLO to the US1 list and adjusted its target price to 135 from 107 for 2022. (The US 1 list reflects strategic stock recommendations made by the BofA Merrill Lynch US 1 committee.) -Scotiabank Raises Price Target for Valero Energy to $90 From $83. 2-March 14th,2022: -JPMorgan Adjusts Valero Energy's Price Target to $101 From $95 -Tudor Pickering Raises Price Target for Valero Energy to $104 From $93 So, it is not impossible to beat the so-called smart money..! Another layer of analysis: If you are looking at oil prices since March 7th, you see a 15-20% correction, but VLO is up more than 6.3% since then??? Because there is something more important than Oil price for refineries..! That is called Crack spread..! Any increase in the crack spread will increase refineries profit exponentially..! While the oil price is 34% up YTD, Crack spread is up 91% YTD, which means lower oil prices could increase the refineries profit..! moreover, VLO is the second biggest Biodiesel producer in the world and benefit from it as well..! Conclusion: I will not care about oil price as long as the crack spread is higher than the 2021 average(21)..! Best, Dr . Moshkelgosha M.D DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site. * I have a long position.
NYSE:VLOLong
by Moshkelgosha
2
Elon Musk vs Kim Kardashian“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” George Orwell Elon musk and Kim Kardashian have 72.4 million and 71 million followers on Twitter. (less than 2% difference) You might be shocked already that people( Twitter users) are attracted to Brain (Elon's Intelligence) and ... Kim Kardashian's ... equally?!? But this is a reality you can not ignore..! One uses his Tech charm to Inflate the DogeCoin and other cryptos, the other uses her charm to pump the EthereumMax..! Here, There is a big question? While A class-action lawsuit filed last Friday in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California accuses EthereumMax and its celebrity promoters of working together to artificially inflate the price of the token by making “false or misleading statements” in social media posts.(CNBC) No one talks about Elon Musk?!? Is Elon Musk above the law?!? What do you think about the social media influence on the investors/traders' behavior? Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
FTX:DOGEUSD
by Moshkelgosha
5
ARK will not survive 2022All my predictions about ARK invest in the past trading year were and are correct..! If you look at the average weekly Volume Price it is now 30-40 times higher than the same price range in July 2020, this will lead to full crash mode..! SQ earning in the next 2 weeks will push it outside the channel and accelerate the down move! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
6
Eventful September 2022In September, we are going to have 4 major events that will lead to huge volatility! September 8: Chair Jerome H. Powell At the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference September 13: Inflation rate Core inflation CPI September 16: Quadruple Witching: refers to a date on which derivatives of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. This event occurs once every quarter, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. September 21: FOMC Interest rate decision Be ready for a 2-4% change on each of these days..! the most volatile day will be September 21! Be ready for the storm, Best,
NASDAQ:NDX
by Moshkelgosha
4
Counter trend moves, different names but similar features!Bear Market Rally, Suckers Rally, Dead Cat Bounce, Bull trap, Whipsaw, Pullback,and Mean Reversion are all examples of counter trend moves. They all have common features: - They are all countertrend moves. - Their duration is shorter than the main trend. - They could be faster and more volatile. - They are not supported by fundamental changes Bear market rallies are significant counter-trend recoveries in stock prices that can last as little as a few days or as long as months before the market reverses to new lows. Sucker rally is a slang term referring to the temporary rise in an asset, like a stock, or the market as a whole, which continues just long enough to attract investment by naive or unsuspecting buyers. The buyers are the suckers since they are likely to lose money on the trade when the price heads lower again. This phenomenon is also known as a dead cat bounce, a Bull trap. Whipsaw describes the movement of stocks in a volatile market when a stock price will suddenly switch direction. There is no set rule as to how to manage whipsaw movements in a volatile market as it is an unexpected movement. Pullback is a temporary reversal in the price action of an asset or security.The duration of a pullback is usually only a few consecutive sessions. According to Investopedia, mean reversion, or reversion to the mean, is a theory used in finance (rooted in a concept well known as regression towards the mean) that suggests that asset price volatility and historical returns eventually will revert to the long-run mean or average level of the entire dataset. Note: Bear Market Rally and Mean reversion moves are bigger and longer than others. Best, (All the information were summarized from different articles on Investopedia)
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Moshkelgosha
3
Head and Shoulder Pattern!What Is the Head and Shoulders Pattern? A head and shoulders pattern is a technical indicator with a chart pattern of three peaks, where the outer two are close in height, and the middle is the highest. A head and shoulders pattern—considered one of the most reliable trend reversal patterns—is a chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal. An inverse head and shoulders pattern predicts a bearish-to-bullish trend. The neckline rests at the support or resistance lines, depending on the pattern direction. (Investopedia) I activated the Auto Head and Shoulder indicator of Tradingview, but it detects nothing! The source codes of these indicators are not available! but it looks like it can only detect the finished and fully formed Head and Shoulder pattern which makes it useless..! I think this needs more consideration because detecting a finished pattern is not useful in trading..! Best.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
7
Comparative Strength AnalysisWyckoff's stock selection process always included an analysis of comparative strength. To identify candidates for long positions, he looked for stocks or industries that were outperforming the market, both during trends and within trading ranges. In short positions, he looked for underperformers. Therefore, he conducted his comparative strength analysis between a stock and the market, or between a stock and others in its industry. Practical example: NASDAQ100 vs NVDA 5-year: 1-year: YTD: July-August 2022: Conclusion: we can use outperforming stocks' charts with higher positive correlation as a leading indicator for Indexes! Best,
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Moshkelgosha
1
Do not rely on 1 scenario..!On the left side, You see a Cup and Handle pattern which is one of the most profit-making patterns in the market, while on the right side you see a Double Top which indicates the probability of lower prices in the coming days! Which one would you pick? in which you will put your money? Let's look at the volume and see if it could help us: A: In a cup and handle pattern we need higher volume as prices go higher! which is not present in this case! Moreover, you need a huge positive fundamental change: -a 10% change in revenue in 2022 Q2 does not support Cup and Handle pattern! Now let's look at the alternative Double Top pattern: A: sharp 32% increase in 12 days and 51% rebound from 52 weeks low while volume decreased. B: getting out of consolidation pattern and failed to advance above 123% Fibo twice. C: closing at a lower price and 20% higher volume when testing the 935 level for the second time indicate increased supply! After this analysis, which scenario would you pick and what would be your reason? best,
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Moshkelgosha
21
Inflation has not peaked nor slowed down..!I remember last month's forecasts of Goldman Sacks for a lower expectations Inflation rate, but the actual number was hotter than expected and also 1.5x of the average of the past 24 months..! In 2 days, CPI data will be out (August 10), and with the current momentum, we should not expect a much lower number for July. The consensus for the July Inflation rate is 8.7. This is a -0.4% rate of change, while the previous month's rate of change was +0.535; I think it is very unlikely that we see the actual number close to the consensus number! Why is this important? Because all those speculators who predicted FED will pivot its hawkishness, can not back their claim with any data..! Inflation is a global phenomenon..! The most reliable narrative is coming from England: the prediction of Soaring prices is likely to drive consumer price inflation to 13.3% in October, from 9.4% in June, the bank of England said. That will push Britain into recession later this year, with economic output declining each quarter from the fourth quarter of 2022 through the fourth quarter of 2023, bank forecasts show.(npr.org) I think this will be the scenario for the US too..! But according to Bloomberg: "The rate on swap contracts for the September Fed meeting rose as much as 12 basis points to 3.03%, some 70 basis points above the current effective fed funds rate of 2.33%. That implies a hike of at least 50 basis points is seen as definite and a two-in-three chance that it could be 75 basis points. The surge in short-maturity yields briefly saw the two-year 44 basis points higher than the 10-year, a degree of inversion last seen in 2000, before stabilizing at around 40 basis points higher." Fed Governor Bowman sees ‘similarly sized’ rate hikes ahead after three-quarter point moves “My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way,” she added in a speech Saturday. August 6th. Conclusion: The predictions for FED pivoting hawkishness in July by many is premature and not supported by data! Action plan: I will bet on higher Inflation, Higher interest rates, Lower GDP, and the possibility of the stock market and Crypto market breaking below their previous lows! Best,
FRED:CPIAUCSLLong
by Moshkelgosha
6
Bull or Bear that's the question???The S&P sectors, or Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), organize companies based on their primary business activities. Investors can use the sectors to isolate stocks of specific interest or to build a diversified portfolio. The order of the 11 sectors based on size is as follows: Information Technology, Health Care, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities, Real Estate, and Materials. (corporate finance institute) Now let's compare the performance of these sectors in different timeframes: A: 1 year: 8 out of 11 sectors had negative performance! B: YTD (Year today): 9 out of 11 sectors had negative performance! C: 3 months: 7 out of 11 sectors had negative performance! D:1 month: 0 out of 11 sectors had negative performance! Education: Trend and Timeframe: 1- Talking about the trend without mentioning the timeframe is nonsense! 2- Talking about the target price without mentioning the timeframe is also nonsense! 3- You should pick your investment/trading strategies based on the timeframe you expect to realize the gain or loss. Observation: While the Market has had a negative performance in the 3-12 months timeframe, it has had positive performance in the past month! Which means: Most investors have had a positive return in the past month, but they lost money in the past 3 to 12 months! Learning from past market movements: In 2001 and 2008 market experienced many 10-26% rebounds and then made new lows! Since 2022 we had 4 sharp upward moves: Most important question: Is the bearish market finished and this is a beginning of a new bullish market? To answer this question first we could be able to say FED has finished its job with inflation, which I think is not done yet! Best,
TVC:SPX
by Moshkelgosha
9
Why you need exit strategy ???It was March 7th when I published my first VLO analysis: I revised my target price to 140 on April 26: then VLO went up to 148 +84% in less than 100 days..! Now you see the highest ever revenue and learning per share, but the price is 25% below its All time high??? Why? Maybe the best answer is provided by George Soros: The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium. Best,
NYSE:VLOEducation
by Moshkelgosha
5