Movingaveragecrossover
10 / 28 Moving Average Strategy with Liquidity TrendIn this idea I'm providing to you the use of a 10/28 Moving average that you can find in my profile.
This particular indicator is specifically designed to use for this type of strategy.
keep in mind that also any previous video I made sure to note with all of you guys if you are using a pair of indicators on your chart then the settings for both of these indicators should match each other.
That being said since I'm using a 10 and 28. Look back on my price chart then on the lower part of the chart I'm using an RSI where the RSI is 810. And the RSI moving average is 28 periods.
There's a specific reason for this and if you watch the video you'll get a full understanding of it.
In this particular indicator there is not only a fast trend and slow trend line there is also a midline which is not specifically the middle but it is also looking for and showing you good price on the different time frames that you would ever set this indicator to. You can set this indicator to current start time frame a time frame lower or any time frame higher. Accordingly that liquidity trend line which is the golden line in the middle is going to adjust itself as you change your chart time frame.
So now let's get into it
How to Take Long Trades
Now that you have your indicator set up and they are matching each other you want to make sure that you have the following for long trades.
you should have a candle that breaks above the fast moving average (or the white one) at the same time your RSI is breaking both above the midline and above its own moving average.
This would be the indication for a long trend or an uptrend beginning.
If your RSI breaks above its moving average and it's already been above the midline this would be a re entry of a long trade or in other words a continuation trade.
Short Trades are taken by doing the opposite.
Bear in mind that it does not matter if you're moving averages are right side up or upside down while you are taking longer shorts against them.
Because the way price action works is that you simply need to be closing against them or faster than your fast period moving average.
MTF MA + DMI/ADX 15m Timeframe Upon color change of MA line, wait for first bar to close to confirm color change. Enter on 2nd color change bar on MA after cross in DMI or if DI+ or DI- is above 25 or ADX is going higher or is above 25. Set TP at 1 ATR ( I set a bit below ATR to ensure I hit my TP) SL is either a bit below previous swing high or swing low. Think I might do stop loss 1 ATR away from above moving average line. Let me know what you guys think
Back to Basics video on examples of golden and dead crossoversCriteria for a dead crossover is that the short term moving average crosses below a longer term moving average while both are pointing lower.
Criteria for a golden crossover happen when a shorter term moving average crosses above a longer term moving average while both are turning higher
IN this example I have used a 55 and 200 day simple moving average.
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(SPY) Bears, the market may move lower: careful of the look backAMEX:SPY
In this video I go over very general market conditions and express my bear case on the SPY using some simple indicators. This is not financial advise and was created for entertainment and educational purposes only. Do not use this video and its contents as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security, the opinions expressed are of my own and should be taken with a grain of salt. No one person is always right (or wrong)- please do your own TA and DD when making any financial decisions in the market. A stock guru I know once told me "price action is king" and I took it to heart. Ignore the noise, be simple, look at the chart and let it speak to you.
The video is really only supplemental information to pair with the post below (which is much more detailed):
The SPY is coming off a very strong bearish candle close at $412.
This marked a range from the previous 4 months with a top of range of $479.98 - closing the month of April's candle -14.33% or -$68.77.
This 4 month move countered 8 months worth of price discovery - or in other words, a 1 year reset button was just pushed. Rewind.
Monthly Time Frame:
Stochastic shows neutral, room for buyers and sellers
The 200 is trading below the 50, signaling a bull market - don't isolate this thought though
The monthly candle that just closed pushed well past the 12 EMA - which acted as support on the previous 3 months candles (as seen as a slice of the candle wicks/shadows)
Weekly Timeframe:
Stochastic shows oversold slightly. On this time frame the SO seems to be much more sensitive on the oversold side than the overbought. Bears should keep this in mind when considering short term reversals or lookbacks.
The weekly candle printed below the 50 SMA, 12/26 EMA, but above its 200 SMA. The 50 SMA (low) attempted support but ultimately failed.
The Daily print closing below closing levels of April 2020
There was also a 12/26 EMA cross under that developed in the last daily print - this could signal a stronger downside that is to come.
3 Day Time Frame:
Very similar to the weekly with one big difference lying in the 12/26 crossunder which happened Feb 10 and a look back rally that pushed through (but failed to maintain) in late March.
May Sept Dec 21' and Feb 22' all produced similar 3day prints that were follow by a bull rally - do be careful of these rally periods as the SPY continues its downward trend as they will come because the price never goes straight up or down.
The Stochastic is again showing signs of being very sensitive to oversold conditions. Oct 21', Jan Feb and March 22' all show a rally after touching the oversold mark.
1 Day Time Frame:
This is where the picture becomes a little more clear IMO.
The daily print is now below the 200 and 50 SMA set, and the 12/26 EMA still - both the 12 under the 26 and 50 under the 200 - technically a bear market (unlike the 1M, 1W, and 3D showing the 50 over 200)
The first overhead EMA is the 12 which could be looked to as resistance upon a lookback. The 50 SMA (low) should also be noted, as it seemed to have provided support April 12th - 18th. This support is now considered resistance.
Stochastic showing oversold, and again showing sensitivity to these conditions as compared to its counter
This is IMO the most important line of support/resistance you can find - not just for the SPY but for the entire market. The ULTIMATE crash will come with confirmation of the break below. Mark this line on your charts and consider it for the future. This is the bottom of 08' that created support, switched to resistance in 11' which confirmation of its strength in 18' and 20'. It was only during a recovery(?) that it was broken. Time will tell if resistance is now support - we do not know yet because it has not been tested. My gut says it will provide some, but very little resistance when the time comes.
This is what that line looks like relative to the daily for context - the current price is roughly $20 away of -5% from this line of "assumed" support. This is not a hard feat IMO for bears to look at as a price target in the short term.
This would be in the $390-400 range.
If you consider the 3 day chart in relation you will notice the 200 SMA set has a H-C-L of 387.26, 382.71, 376.92, respectively. This could be a lower PT that bears could be looking to.
Additional levels to consider to the downside would be a range of 405-411 in the near short term. Really, considering the gap found on April 1st to April 5th that range could be extended to 400 before support could start to be used. There is no real structure here though, the next structure is found in the lower 390s.
Lookbacks could happen at any time, but patterns lately show lots of doji and morning star reversals that tend to give us a heads up. Again, nothing goes up or down in a straight line.
Lookback levels I would consider would be on the Daily time frame at the 50 and 200 SMA sets
50 SMA: 437.19, 433.28, 428.68
200 SMA: 450.98, 448.15, 445.13
Also, I would consider the pivots at 437.20 and 461.55 as resistance in the case of a rally
Conclusion:
I expect continuation of bearish pressure with short lived look back rallies. The market overall IMO is not topped out just yet and we very well may see higher highs before lower lows in the short term. Even though I do think a crash is imminent, I do believe there is room for bulls to take short control. Mainly do to oversold conditions that show lots of sensitivity. That said, there is also no indication of a bottom just yet either. Almost all signs point down. Remember, and this is the last time, nothing goes up or down forever - expect turbulence. I think the SPY will go down to $400 to at least test, and perhaps even lower to the 370s before a bottom is found.
You all have a wonderful trading week and best of luck to all those in the market!
Here are the coins that I've had to remove from "This Week's HotTraders,
I go through our list and remove 15 coins from the list, some of which have pumped and some which haven't. I'll give an explanation for the removal of each in the video. Six coins remain on the list. Link below.
⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️
(against house rules, see below)
How I Find Trends In Markets Finding Trends in the market is a tool needed to stay on the right side of the trade.
Here I attempt to help you out by giving some tips that I have found through my 7 years of looking at the charts.
I have noticed that while the focus is on the avg close of the markets that isn't where trends take place in fact aiming for the avg is a good way to continuously lose on trades. In the video I show how to place trades based on the extremes Highs and Lows to aim for better returns while providing my insights on why looking at the market in these terms is better than standard way of looking at markets